Sie sind nicht angemeldet! Dieses Tagebuch ist öffentlich einsehbar und wird demnächst zurückgesetzt.
 | |||||||
| |||||||
| © tratabu.de
© tratabu.de
|
Dividendenzahlungen |
|||
| Titel | Ex-Datum | Zahldatum | Bruttobetrag |
Jenoptik AG |
13.06.25 |
0.3800 € |
|
Jenoptik AG |
19.06.24 |
0.3500 € |
|
Jenoptik AG |
09.06.23 |
0.3000 € |
|
Jenoptik AG |
08.06.23 |
0.3000 € |
|
Jenoptik AG |
17.06.22 |
0.2500 € |
|
Jenoptik AG |
16.06.22 |
0.2500 € |
|
Jenoptik AG |
11.06.21 |
0.2500 € |
|
Jenoptik AG |
10.06.21 |
0.2500 € |
|
Jenoptik AG |
14.08.20 |
0.1300 € |
|
Jenoptik AG |
10.08.20 |
0.1300 € |
|
Nachrichten |
||
| Datum / Uhrzeit | Titel | Bewertung |
| 29.07.25 09:33:35 | Gibt es eine Möglichkeit mit der Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) 47% Unterbewertung? |  |
| **Key Insights: Wertschätzung der Jenoptik AG** ** Schätzung des Fair Value** Der geschätzte Fair Value von Jenoptik beträgt 36,29 € basierend auf 2-stufigen Free Cash Flow-to-Equity-Schätzungen, mit einer geschätzten Unterbewertung von 47 % gegenüber dem aktuellen Aktienkurs von 19,34 €. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die aktuelle Bewertung des Unternehmens niedriger ist als sein Eigenwert. ** Verwendung des Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Modells* * Ein zweistufiges DCF-Modell wurde verwendet, um den Eigenwert des Unternehmens zu schätzen. Die erste Stufe zeichnet sich durch höhere Wachstumsraten aus, die schließlich auf den Endwert absteigen. Die zweite Phase ist eine stetige Wachstumsphase, vorausgesetzt, Unternehmen mit schrumpfenden freien Cashflows werden ihre Schrumpfrate verlangsamen. **Calculating the Present Value of Future Cash Flows* * Der aktuelle Wert zukünftiger Cashflows im ersten 10-jährigen Zeitraum wurde berechnet, was zu einem aktuellen Wert von 848 Mio. € führte. Dies wurde mit einem Eigenkapital von 6,8% auf den Endwert von 2,4 Mrd. € reduziert. ** Berechnung des Gesamteigenwerts* * Der Gesamtwert des Eigenkapitals wurde durch Summen der Cashflows für die nächsten zehn Jahre und des ermäßigten Endwerts berechnet, was zu einem Gesamtwert von 2,1 Mrd. € führte. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass das Unternehmen zu 47% Rabatt auf den aktuellen Aktienkurs unterschätzt erscheint. **Vergleich zu Analysten' Schätzungen* * Der geschätzte Fairwert von 36,29 € ist um 39 % höher als Jenoptiks Analysepreisziel von 26,18 €. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die aktuelle Bewertung des Unternehmens attraktiver ist als die Schätzung seiner Analysten. **Limitationen der Analyse* Während das DCF-Modell einen nützlichen Rahmen für die Bewertung von Unternehmen bietet, hat es seine Grenzen. Das Modell geht davon aus, dass zukünftige Cashflows einem vorhersehbaren Muster folgen, was nicht immer der Fall sein kann. Darüber hinaus können die im Modell verwendeten Eigenkapitalkosten die Erwartungen des Marktes für die Wachstumsaussichten des Unternehmens nicht genau widerspiegeln. **Ausschluss* * Der geschätzte Fair Value von 36,29 € liegt damit unter dem aktuellen Aktienkurs von 19,34 € und zeigt, dass die aktuelle Bewertung des Unternehmens attraktiver ist als seine Analystenschätzungen. Das zweistufige DCF-Modell bietet einen nützlichen Rahmen für die Bewertung von Unternehmen, aber seine Einschränkungen sollten bei der Interpretation der Ergebnisse berücksichtigt werden. |
||
| 25.06.25 04:40:34 | Jenoptik AG's (ETR:JEN) Stock Has Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Strong: Is The Market Wrong? | |
| It is hard to get excited after looking at Jenoptik's (ETR:JEN) recent performance, when its stock has declined 11% over the past three months. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Jenoptik's ROE today. Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. How Do You Calculate Return On Equity? Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula: Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Jenoptik is: 8.9% = €86m ÷ €972m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025). The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each €1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made €0.09 in profit. Check out our latest analysis for Jenoptik What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth? Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features. Jenoptik's Earnings Growth And 8.9% ROE On the face of it, Jenoptik's ROE is not much to talk about. Although a closer study shows that the company's ROE is higher than the industry average of 4.2% which we definitely can't overlook. Consequently, this likely laid the ground for the decent growth of 11% seen over the past five years by Jenoptik. That being said, the company does have a slightly low ROE to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. So there might well be other reasons for the earnings to grow. Such as- high earnings retention or the company belonging to a high growth industry. Next, on comparing Jenoptik's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 11% over the last few years. Story Continues XTRA:JEN Past Earnings Growth June 25th 2025 Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is JEN worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether JEN is currently mispriced by the market. Is Jenoptik Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively? In Jenoptik's case, its respectable earnings growth can probably be explained by its low three-year median payout ratio of 24% (or a retention ratio of 76%), which suggests that the company is investing most of its profits to grow its business. Besides, Jenoptik has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 22% of its profits over the next three years. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 10.0%. Conclusion In total, we are pretty happy with Jenoptik's performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company has seen significant growth in its earnings backed by a respectable ROE and a high reinvestment rate. We also studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that the company's earnings growth is expected be similar to its current growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
||
| 15.05.25 11:01:05 | Jenoptik AG (JNPKF) Q1 2025 Ergebnis Call Highlights: Navigating Market Challenges with ... |  |
| **Jenoptik AG (JNPKF) Ergebnisübersicht* **Positive Punkte* - **Strong Order Intake*: Das Unternehmen verzeichnete einen starken Auftragseingang in seinem smarten Mobilitätslösungen-Geschäft, das durch Entwicklungen in Amerika und dem Nahen Osten Afrikas vorangetrieben wurde. - **Neue Fabrik**: Die Jenoptik AG hat in Dresden eine neue Fabrik eröffnet, die die mittelfristige Nachfrage nach Hochleistungschips unterstützt. - ** Organisationsstruktur*: Das Unternehmen hat eine neue Organisationsstruktur mit vier voll vertikal ausgerichteten strategischen Geschäftsbereichen umgesetzt, um den Kundenfokus und die Effizienz zu steigern. - **Konfidence in 2025 Guidance*: Trotz der Herausforderungen wiederholt die Jenoptik AG ihre 2025-Leitlinien und zeigt Vertrauen in ihre Fähigkeit, zyklische Geschäftsumgebungen zu verwalten. **Negative Punkte* - **Decline in Order Intake**: Das Unternehmen erlebte aufgrund eines einmaligen Effektes einen erheblichen Rückgang der Auftragseingangs in seinem Halbleiter- und fortgeschrittenen Fertigungsbetrieb. - **Revenue and Operating Profit**: Umsatz und operatives Ergebnis erreichten im ersten Quartal nicht die Vorjahreswerte mit rückläufigen Halbleiter- und Metrologie- und Produktionslösungen. **Buch-zu-Bill Ratio*: Das Unternehmen steht vor erhöhten Marktunsicherheits- und Zeitrisiken, insbesondere im Halbleitersektor. - **Nachhaltigkeitsbedenken*: Die Nachhaltigkeit der starken Leistung im Biophotonikgeschäft ist unsicher, mit Erwartungen an die Normalisierung der Wachstumsraten. **Q & A Highlights* - **Order Stornierung**: Das Unternehmen hatte einen signifikanten Rückgang des Auftragseingangs in seinem Halbleitergeschäft, aber es wurde nicht erwartet, dass 2025 Umsatz, da es auf zukünftige potenzielle Verkäufe bezogen war. - **Neue Dresden-Fazilität*: Das Unternehmen ist zuversichtlich, die neue Dresden-Fazilität zu füllen, und das Halbleitergeschäft soll sich in der zweiten Jahreshälfte verbessern. - **Biophotonics Segment*: Das Segment Biophotonics verzeichnete durch hohe Auslastung und positive Mischeffekte eine starke Leistung, aber die Wachstumsraten dürften im Laufe des Jahres nicht auf demselben Niveau bleiben. **Kurzentwicklungen und Pläne* - **M&A-Plan*: Das Unternehmen hat keine Pläne für große M&A-Aktivitäten und konzentriert sich auf organisches Wachstum. - **FX Environment*: Die FX-Umgebung hat in Q1 keine wesentlichen Auswirkungen, und das Unternehmen erwartet minimale Auswirkungen für den Rest des Jahres. - **Cost Measures*: Das Unternehmen implementiert Materialkosteneinsparungen, temporäre Maßnahmen und strukturelle Kostensenkungen, um Kostenmaßnahmen anzugehen. **Guidance und Outlook* * - **2025 Guidance**: Die Jenoptik AG bekräftigt ihre 2025-Leitungen und zeigt Vertrauen in ihre Fähigkeit, zyklische Geschäftsumgebungen zu verwalten. - **Quarterly Performance*: Umsatz und operatives Ergebnis erreichten im ersten Quartal nicht mit rückläufigen Halbleiter- und Metrologie- und Produktionslösungen. - **Ausblick**: Das Unternehmen erwartet, dass die Nachfrage wächst, vor allem mit der Notwendigkeit von Hochleistungschips, im Halbleitergeschäft. **Empfehlungen* * - **Investoren**: Investoren raten, angesichts des unsicheren Marktes und potenzieller Risiken bei Investitionen in die Jenoptik AG Vorsicht zu üben. - **Analysten**: Analysten werden ermutigt, die Finanzen und Leitlinien des Unternehmens zu überprüfen, um die potenziellen Risiken und Chancen zu bewerten. |
||
| 21.04.25 20:25:26 | Jenoptik AG (JNPKF) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Growth Amidst Geopolitical ... | |
| Revenue Growth: Single-digit sales growth, approximately 5% increase, purely organic. EBITDA Margin: Almost 20% of sales. Order Intake: EUR1.03 billion, down by 6% year-over-year. Book-to-Bill Ratio: 0.92. Order Backlog: Reduced by about 10% year-over-year. Advanced Photonic Solutions Revenue: EUR866.8 million, 5.6% growth. Advanced Photonic Solutions EBITDA: Almost EUR192 million. Smart Mobility Solutions Order Intake: Positive development, particularly in North America. NPC EBITDA Margin: 17.5%, up from 14.1% last year. Earnings Per Share: EUR1.62, up by almost 28% year-on-year. ROCE: Improved by 120 basis points to 10.8%. Net Debt Position: Improved, leverage at 1.8 times compared to 2 times a year earlier. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with JNPKF. Release Date: March 25, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Positive Points Jenoptik AG (JNPKF) reported robust growth in revenue and earnings for 2024, with single-digit sales growth and an EBITDA margin close to 20%. The company successfully expanded its profit margins, achieving an EBITDA of almost 20% of sales. Strong performance in the Advanced Photonic Solutions division and Non-Photonic Portfolio Companies contributed to higher earnings. Jenoptik AG (JNPKF) saw strong growth in Germany and Europe, with the APS segment being a key growth driver. The company maintained a strong financial position, with a slight improvement in net debt and leverage reduced to 1.8 times. Negative Points Order intake declined by mid-single digits, particularly in the former NPC segment, due to turmoil in the automotive market. Geopolitical tensions and discussions around tariffs have created a challenging market environment, impacting Jenoptik AG (JNPKF) as an export-oriented organization. The company reported a reduction in order backlog by about 10% year-over-year, with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.92. The semiconductor order intake showed a downward trend, particularly in the second half of 2024, affecting strategic targets. Prodomax, part of the NPC segment, faced challenges due to geopolitical tensions and tariff discussions between the US and Canada, impacting order intake. Q & A Highlights Q: Why was the EBITDA margin in Q4 for the Semiconductor and Advanced Manufacturing division lower than other quarters? A: Stefan Traeger, CEO, explained that the decline was due to slower business overall and the first part of the costs related to moving into the new factory. There was also a mix impact between classical optics and micro-structured optics. These factors are expected to continue affecting Q1 2025. Story Continues Q: What is the outlook for the semiconductor business in terms of order patterns and customer forecasts? A: Stefan Traeger, CEO, indicated that the worst of the inventory adjustments impacting order inflow is expected in Q1 2025. A new order pattern is anticipated to emerge in subsequent quarters. Long-term customer forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged. Q: How is the geopolitical situation affecting Prodomax, and is there a possibility of selling it? A: Stefan Traeger, CEO, stated that the uncertainty due to potential tariffs between the US and Canada makes it difficult to predict the future of Prodomax. The geopolitical tensions are causing significant uncertainty, making it challenging to proceed with a sale at this time. Q: Can you provide more details on the new segment structure and any seasonality in the Semiconductor and Advanced Manufacturing (SAM) division? A: Stefan Traeger, CEO, confirmed that there is typical seasonality in the semiconductor business, though not as pronounced as in the past. The biophotonics segment showed strong margins in H2 2024, but quarterly figures should not be overly interpreted due to project-driven volatility. Q: What are the expectations for the Metrology & Production Solutions (MPS) division, given the challenges at Prodomax? A: Stefan Traeger, CEO, clarified that Prodomax is not part of the MPS division. MPS includes TRIOPTICS, laser processing, and HOMMEL, which are expected to have stable sales and EBITDA. Prodomax will be reported separately under group functions. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. View Comments |
||
| 12.04.25 06:51:06 | Jenoptik (ETR:JEN) shareholders have endured a 38% loss from investing in the stock a year ago | |
| The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Unfortunately the Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) share price slid 39% over twelve months. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 5.5%. To make matters worse, the returns over three years have also been really disappointing (the share price is 36% lower than three years ago). Even worse, it's down 30% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report. It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Even though the Jenoptik share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics. Jenoptik's revenue is actually up 4.7% over the last year. Since we can't easily explain the share price movement based on these metrics, it might be worth considering how market sentiment has changed towards the stock. You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).XTRA:JEN Earnings and Revenue Growth April 12th 2025 Jenoptik is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this freereport showing consensus forecasts A Different Perspective While the broader market gained around 5.5% in the last year, Jenoptik shareholders lost 38% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 2% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Jenoptik has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of. Story Continues We will like Jenoptik better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this freelist of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying. Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
||
| 26.03.25 12:46:08 | Jenoptik Full Year 2024 Earnings: EPS Beats Expectations | |
| Jenoptik (ETR:JEN) Full Year 2024 Results Key Financial Results Revenue: €1.12b (up 4.7% from FY 2023). Net income: €91.0m (up 25% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 8.2% (up from 6.8% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. EPS: €1.59 (up from €1.27 in FY 2023). The end of cancer? These 15 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.XTRA:JEN Earnings and Revenue Growth March 26th 2025 All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period Jenoptik EPS Beats Expectations Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.6% growth forecast for the Electronic industry in Germany. Performance of the German Electronic industry. The company's shares are down 5.7% from a week ago. Risk Analysis You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Jenoptik you should be aware of. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
||
| 08.03.25 06:50:09 | Owning 47% shares,institutional owners seem interested in Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN), | |
| Key Insights Institutions' substantial holdings in Jenoptik implies that they have significant influence over the company's share price 51% of the business is held by the top 17 shareholders Analyst forecasts along with ownership data serve to give a strong idea about prospects for a business Every investor in Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. With 47% stake, institutions possess the maximum shares in the company. In other words, the group stands to gain the most (or lose the most) from their investment into the company. Since institutional have access to huge amounts of capital, their market moves tend to receive a lot of scrutiny by retail or individual investors. Therefore, a good portion of institutional money invested in the company is usually a huge vote of confidence on its future. Let's take a closer look to see what the different types of shareholders can tell us about Jenoptik. See our latest analysis for Jenoptik XTRA:JEN Ownership Breakdown March 8th 2025 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Jenoptik? Many institutions measure their performance against an index that approximates the local market. So they usually pay more attention to companies that are included in major indices. As you can see, institutional investors have a fair amount of stake in Jenoptik. This suggests some credibility amongst professional investors. But we can't rely on that fact alone since institutions make bad investments sometimes, just like everyone does. If multiple institutions change their view on a stock at the same time, you could see the share price drop fast. It's therefore worth looking at Jenoptik's earnings history below. Of course, the future is what really matters.XTRA:JEN Earnings and Revenue Growth March 8th 2025 Hedge funds don't have many shares in Jenoptik. Bm-T Beteiligungsmanagement Thüringen GmbH is currently the company's largest shareholder with 11% of shares outstanding. Meanwhile, the second and third largest shareholders, hold 10.0% and 3.5%, of the shares outstanding, respectively. After doing some more digging, we found that the top 17 have the combined ownership of 51% in the company, suggesting that no single shareholder has significant control over the company. While studying institutional ownership for a company can add value to your research, it is also a good practice to research analyst recommendations to get a deeper understand of a stock's expected performance. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily. Insider Ownership Of Jenoptik While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. Company management run the business, but the CEO will answer to the board, even if he or she is a member of it. Story Continues Most consider insider ownership a positive because it can indicate the board is well aligned with other shareholders. However, on some occasions too much power is concentrated within this group. We note our data does not show any board members holding shares, personally. It is unusual not to have at least some personal holdings by board members, so our data might be flawed. A good next step would be to check how much the CEO is paid. General Public Ownership The general public, who are usually individual investors, hold a 42% stake in Jenoptik. While this group can't necessarily call the shots, it can certainly have a real influence on how the company is run. Private Equity Ownership Private equity firms hold a 11% stake in Jenoptik. This suggests they can be influential in key policy decisions. Some investors might be encouraged by this, since private equity are sometimes able to encourage strategies that help the market see the value in the company. Alternatively, those holders might be exiting the investment after taking it public. Next Steps: I find it very interesting to look at who exactly owns a company. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks for example - Jenoptik has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of. If you would prefer discover what analysts are predicting in terms of future growth, do not miss this freereport on analyst forecasts. NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
||
| 19.02.25 08:54:07 | Is Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) Trading At A 50% Discount? | |
| Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Jenoptik fair value estimate is €44.21 Jenoptik's €22.26 share price signals that it might be 50% undervalued Analyst price target for JEN is €30.69 which is 31% below our fair value estimate Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine. Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model. See our latest analysis for Jenoptik Step By Step Through The Calculation We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €97.3m €115.7m €116.0m €131.0m €139.5m €146.3m €151.8m €156.3m €160.0m €163.2m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x4 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 6.51% Est @ 4.88% Est @ 3.74% Est @ 2.95% Est @ 2.39% Est @ 2.00% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 6.6% €91.2 €102 €95.7 €101 €101 €99.6 €96.9 €93.6 €89.9 €86.0 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €957m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.6%. Story Continues Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €163m× (1 + 1.1%) ÷ (6.6%– 1.1%) = €3.0b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €3.0b÷ ( 1 + 6.6%)10= €1.6b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €2.5b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €22.3, the company appears quite undervalued at a 50% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.XTRA:JEN Discounted Cash Flow February 19th 2025 The Assumptions We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jenoptik as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.277. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. SWOT Analysis for Jenoptik Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electronic market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 4 years. Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the German market. Looking Ahead: Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Jenoptik, we've put together three essential aspects you should look at: Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Jenoptik that you should be aware of before investing here. Future Earnings: How does JEN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the XTRA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
||
| 15.01.25 13:48:36 | Is Weakness In Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) Stock A Sign That The Market Could be Wrong Given Its Strong Financial Prospects? | |
| It is hard to get excited after looking at Jenoptik's (ETR:JEN) recent performance, when its stock has declined 17% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Jenoptik's ROE today. ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital. View our latest analysis for Jenoptik How To Calculate Return On Equity? The formula for ROE is: Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Jenoptik is: 9.2% = €86m ÷ €940m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024). The 'return' is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each €1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made €0.09 in profit. Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth? So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics. Jenoptik's Earnings Growth And 9.2% ROE At first glance, Jenoptik seems to have a decent ROE. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 8.2%. This certainly adds some context to Jenoptik's moderate 7.1% net income growth seen over the past five years. As a next step, we compared Jenoptik's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 13% in the same period.XTRA:JEN Past Earnings Growth January 15th 2025 Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Jenoptik's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry. Story Continues Is Jenoptik Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits? Jenoptik's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 24% (implying that it retains 76% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business. Moreover, Jenoptik is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 18% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 12% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio. Conclusion Overall, we are quite pleased with Jenoptik's performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. As a result, the decent growth in its earnings is not surprising. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this freereport on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
||
| 20.10.24 07:38:41 | Earnings are growing at Jenoptik (ETR:JEN) but shareholders still don't like its prospects | |
| As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) shareholders, since the share price is down 26% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 7.5%. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 17%. After losing 17% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance. See our latest analysis for Jenoptik While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS). During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Jenoptik actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 12% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics. The modest 1.5% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. Revenue is actually up 18% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Jenoptik more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity. The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers). earnings-and-revenue-growth We know that Jenoptik has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This freereport showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Jenoptik What About Dividends? When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Jenoptik the TSR over the last 3 years was -23%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return. Story continues A Different Perspective Jenoptik shareholders are up 19% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 0.8% per year, over five years. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Jenoptik . If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this freelist of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation). Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View comments |
||
