Antofagasta PLC (GB0000456144)
 
 

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04.04.25 11:26:16 Copper plunges more than 5% as tariffs hammer metals and miners
(Bloomberg) — Copper (HG=F) plunged more than 5% to trade below $9,000 a ton, in the biggest drop since July 2022, as worries over the impact of a worsening trade war sparked a heavy selloff in industrial metals and mining equities.

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The bellwether metal slumped as much as 5.1% to $8,890.50 a ton in London, extending a heavy selloff seen on Thursday after sweeping tariffs from US President Donald Trump triggered a rout in global financial markets.

Losses accelerated across the industrial metals markets on Friday after China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported that Beijing will retaliate with a 34% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10. Major mining companies also plunged, with Glencore Plc (GLEN.L) falling almost 10% — hitting the lowest since 2021 — while Antofagasta Plc (ANFGF) lost nearly 9%.

It’s a whipsawing reversal for copper traders, who have up to now been mainly focused on the bullish supply-side impacts of a worldwide push to ship copper to the US before targeted levies on the metal are imposed. But with Trump’s trade barriers on all incoming goods now coming into force, the attention is shifting quickly to the consequences for demand in the US and beyond.

“While we remain structurally bullish copper in the long run, weaker global GDP and copper demand growth risk delaying the deficit we expect to see in the market this year,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report.

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Copper is on track for a drop of more than 8% this week, which would be its biggest slide since the early stages of the pandemic. It traded 4.8% lower at $8,916.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange as of 12:23 p.m. local time.

The Trump administration’s latest slew of levies will depress prices, Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Copper will likely fall by another 8% to 10% in the coming weeks, he added.

Aluminum fell for a 12th straight day, while zinc, lead and nickel also suffered heavy losses this week. Tin also slumped on Friday, wiping out a weekly gain driven by concerns about supply disruptions. Chinese markets were closed for a public holiday on Friday.

—With assistance from Atul Prakash.

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02.04.25 10:00:11 An American Mine Still Has Millions of Tons of Copper, If Companies Can Get to It
(Bloomberg) — Carved into a mountain range in Arizona’s Sonoran Desert, where temperatures often reach 118F (48C), a vast mining complex more than a century old is on the front lines of a race to unlock millions of tons of copper.

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After 154 years of digging at Morenci, all the easily recoverable copper has been mined. Left behind are towering piles of waste rock that hold nearly 10 million tons of the metal seen as critical to global electrification. It’s a cache that could prove key to President Donald Trump’s ambition to boost US production of critical minerals.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), which owns Morenci, is trying to develop technology that can burrow within those gigantic waste piles and extract low-grade copper that miners previously saw as too expensive and difficult to process. While the technology is still in its infancy, the US company is betting it can eventually retrieve the material in a way that’s cheaper, faster and greener than traditional mining.

The process, known as sulfide leaching, has been known to copper miners for decades, but the recent push to advance it comes as electrification and artificial intelligence are poised to drive global demand for the metal. BHP, the world’s largest miner, estimates that copper used for data centers will grow sixfold by 2050.

Trump’s focus on domestic copper output — “it’s time for copper to come home,” he declared in February — has revived optimism that operations in states like Arizona will have an advantage over rivals in Latin America, Africa and beyond. Copper prices have soared after Trump ordered the Commerce Department to investigate US imports of the metal, a likely precursor to tariffs that could come within weeks.Copper futures on New York’s Comex exchange surged last week to a record high as traders priced in the prospect of hefty US import tariffs on the red metal.

Sulfide leaching could, in some cases, be an alternative to building copper mines from scratch. High costs, slow permitting and local opposition often keep companies from pulling the trigger on major projects. Shareholders increasingly would prefer to see miners hunt for acquisitions or boost payouts to investors than greenlight new complexes.

Morenci is the largest copper mine in North America — about the size of Brooklyn. Between processing facilities and warehouses, lizards and organ-pipe cacti bask in blazing sunlight. The waste piles, each given their own name, are scattered around the site and shaped like giant cones. On a sweltering afternoon in September, a team of engineers, chemists and technicians experimented with heat, air pressure and chemicals to try to separate the copper from the waste.

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“For a long time, we just didn’t think it was possible to recover any of this stuff,” said Robert Pollock, Morenci’s site manager, gazing up at a waste pile the size of a Manhattan office building. “But now, all this historical copper – we’re going after it.”

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Other major copper producers including BHP Group, Antofagasta Plc (ANFGF) and Rio Tinto Group (RIO) — through its Nuton unit — are pushing to develop sulfide leaching technology as well. Some have outsourced the work to startups like Jetti Resources and Ceibo, which claim to have made strides with their own solutions. Because the geology of copper deposits varies, each company is developing slightly different technology to suit its mines.

The companies are focused on separating copper from a sulfide mineral called chalcopyrite, which is typically considered difficult to process, or “leach.” Jetti’s technology aims to leach those sulfides using little heating or grinding, which has typically driven up the cost of processing chalcopyrite to the point of being prohibitively expensive.

Ceibo, which is backed by BHP and recently partnered with Glencore Plc (GLNCY), uses a process that more quickly oxidizes chalcopyrite ores through electrochemical reactions, resulting in higher recovery rates in a shorter period of time. The startup claims it has recovered over 75% of copper from chalcopyrite through its technology — a significant increase relative to traditional leaching methods.

“For decades, miners have treated calcopyrite mineral to make copper,” said Corby Anderson, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines. “It’s not a magic box where copper’s been locked away. However, these technologies are focused on increasing the recovery of copper from calcopyrite, which isn’t always so easy to do.”

Freeport-McMoRan has used leaching methods at the Morenci mine to unlock lower-grade copper for years, but it’s now experimenting with chemical reagents to process previously inaccessible copper buried even deeper within its waste piles. The Phoenix-headquartered company has so far extracted 100,000 tons of copper using sulfide leaching. It aims to produce 400,000 tons by 2030, enough to wire more than 36,000 electric vehicles.

“That’s the equivalent of a major copper mine anywhere,” Chief Executive Officer Kathleen Quirk said last year.

The success of sulfide leaching, however, is no guarantee. The companies have struggled to prove their technology can function at scale, and few are willing to take the risk of being the first to invest heavily in the novel process. Behind the scenes, some miners have questioned the feasibility of some of the technology while haggling over ownership terms with partners.

At Escondida, a giant copper mine in Chile owned by BHP, the multinational mining company has been testing multiple technologies as it looks to offset declining copper quality that’s poised to send production sharply lower in the next few years. As part of that plan, BHP estimates it can produce as much as 55,000 tons of copper a year by leaching.

BHP is testing its own technology, as well as those of Nuton and Jetti. Yet each offers vastly different outcomes. Jetti is cheap to install, but only slightly increases recoveries. Nuton, which costs much more, greatly improves recoveries. BHP said it plans to make a final decision sometime after 2027.

Other miners have backed away from some of the technology after struggling to make it work. Freeport-McMoRan, an early investor in Jetti that partnered with the startup at its El Abra mine in Chile, said in an emailed response to questions that it’s no longer using the firm’s technology as it pursues its own.

“It’ll all come down to the economics,” said Anderson, who said he knows of previous efforts to boost copper recoveries through sulfide leaching that, while technically feasible, weren’t financially viable.

Freeport’s leaching push coincides with an ambition at the heart of Trump’s critical-minerals agenda: job creation.

The decline of American mining and mineral processing sent jobs overseas, to countries where the work could be done at far lower cost. For rural communities in the southwest, technological breakthroughs are critical to keeping aging mines alive.

Pollock, Morenci’s site manager, grew up in Clifton, 4 miles (6 kilometers) from Morenci in Arizona. The town was built to house the mine’s workers and their families in the late 1800s, back when mules hauled crates of ore up the mine’s dusty slopes. And like much of the surrounding economy, its prosperity became inextricably linked to the mine.

Today, Morenci is responsible for about 13,000 direct and indirect jobs and more than $1.5 billion in statewide economic benefits, according to Freeport.

“Seeing how the place has changed over the years is really impressive to me,” said Pollock. “Doing this work is how we make sure the mine stays here for the long term.”

—With assistance from Thomas Biesheuvel and James Attwood.

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29.03.25 07:38:17 Antofagasta Full Year 2024 Earnings: EPS Beats Expectations
Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) Full Year 2024 Results

Key Financial Results

Revenue: US$6.61b (up 4.6% from FY 2023). Net income: US$829.4m (flat on FY 2023). Profit margin: 13% (in line with FY 2023). EPS: US$0.84 (down from US$0.85 in FY 2023).

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ANTO Production and Reserves

Copper

Production: 0.277 Mt (0.35 Mt in FY 2023) Proved and probable reserves (ore): 4,377 Mt (3,826 Mt in FY 2023) Number of mines: 4 (4 in FY 2023)

Molybdenum

Production: 6,720 t (6,890 t in FY 2023) Proved and probable reserves (ore): 3,182 Mt (2,555 Mt in FY 2023) Number of mines: 2 (2 in FY 2023)

Gold

Production: 126.17 troy koz (142.04 troy koz in FY 2023) Proved and probable reserves (ore): 3,182 Mt (2,555 Mt in FY 2023) Number of mines: 2 (2 in FY 2023)LSE:ANTO Revenue and Expenses Breakdown March 29th 2025

All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period

Antofagasta EPS Beats Expectations

Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 27%.

The primary driver behind last 12 months revenue was the Mining - Los Pelambres segment contributing a total revenue of US$3.33b (50% of total revenue). Notably, cost of sales worth US$4.11b amounted to 62% of total revenue thereby underscoring the impact on earnings. The most substantial expense, totaling US$789.1m were related to Non-Operating costs. This indicates that a significant portion of the company's costs is related to non-core activities. Explore how ANTO's revenue and expenses shape its earnings.

Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 7.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.0% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom.

Performance of the British Metals and Mining industry.

The company's shares are down 4.7% from a week ago.

Risk Analysis

We should say that we've discovered 1 warning sign for Antofagasta that you should be aware of before investing here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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25.03.25 08:35:24 FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks start strong despite fresh Trump tariff threats
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) and European markets ticked higher at the opening bell, even as president Donald Trump rolled out fresh threats on trade, promising what he called "secondary tariffs" on countries that buy oil from Venezuela.

Purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela could mean the imposition of a 25% levy on trade with the US, the president said in a post on Truth Social, which was followed by an executive order.

The consequences of the order could be wide-ranging. Spain, India and the US trade oil with Venezuela, while some of its stock is sold on the black market, according to a Bloomberg report.

The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) rose 0.4% after the opening bell. The top gainers were housebuilding stocks after a pledge by the UK Treasury to invest £2bn in social and affordable housing in places like Manchester and Liverpool. Persimmon (PSN.L) was the top FTSE gainer after the opening, up 2%, while Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L) and Taylor Wimpey (TW.L) added 1.7% and 1.6% respectively. The DAX (^GDAXI) in Germany gained 0.1% and the CAC 40 (^FCHI) in Paris was 0.5% higher. The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) rose 0.4%.

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Lucy Harley-McKeown

Kingfisher pops at the open following results

The B&Q owner's stock headed around 1.2% higher as markets opened in London following a solid quarterly report.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: 34 mins ago

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Here's that US stock future chart

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US stock futures slip

Our US team writes:

US stock futures wavered Monday night after a solid day in the green for the major gauges, bolstered by optimism that President Trump would temper his plans for reciprocal tariffs.

Futures attached to the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F), the Nasdaq Composite (NQ=F), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) all slipped about 0.1%.

Stocks soared on Monday, with all three major averages gaining over 1%. Market optimism has followed signals that the Trump administration may scale back the upcoming tariffs set for April 2. On Monday, the president said he “may give a lot of countries breaks." At the same time, though, he said tariffs on pharmaceutical and autos sectors are still due for the "near future."

On Monday, tech stocks drove an AI-led rally, as Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), and Jack Ma's Ant Group begin to rebuild positive sentiment in the rocky sector. 37 mins ago

Lucy Harley-McKeown

Good morning!

Hello from London. Lucy Harley-McKeown here, poised to bring you the business and markets news of the day.

Today a clutch of companies are reporting, including:

B&Q owner Kingfisher (KGF.L) — full-year Housebuilder Bellway (BWY.L) — full-year Tonic-maker Fevertree (FEVR.L) — full-year Memestock Gamestop (GME) — quarterly

New Japanese inflation data also came out today.

The Ifo German economic survey is due at 10.30am CET.

Let's get to it.

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26.02.25 06:32:16 The total return for Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years
When you buy a stock there is always a possibility that it could drop 100%. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. For instance, the price of Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO) stock is up an impressive 122% over the last five years. But it's down 5.7% in the last week. However, this might be related to the overall market decline of 1.1% in a week.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 5.7%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Antofagasta

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Antofagasta achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 11% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 17% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).LSE:ANTO Earnings Per Share Growth February 26th 2025

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our freereport on Antofagasta's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Antofagasta, it has a TSR of 158% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Antofagasta shareholders are down 2.6% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 15%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 21%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Antofagasta , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Story Continues

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this freelist of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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19.02.25 13:09:07 Antofagasta jumps as JPMorgan double upgrades to Overweight
Investing.com -- Antofagasta shares surged Wednesday after JPMorgan analysts double-upgraded the stock to Overweight, citing the miner’s superior medium-term copper growth and a positive long-term outlook for the metal.

While currently up 3.3% at 1,895p (as of 7:30 am ET), the stock initially rallied to 2,098p a share.

JPMorgan noted that Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) offers "15%/+30% copper growth to 2027/28E vs 2024, higher than peers," making it a standout in the sector.

The bank also revised its net present value (NPV) estimate for the company, incorporating the Los Pelambres and Zaldivar life extension projects, leading to a "50% increase" in valuation. As a result, JPMorgan raised its price target to 2,400p per share from 1,600p.

The upgrade comes amid expectations of a tightening global copper market. JPMorgan’s commodities team forecasts that the copper market will shift into deficit in 2025, with the shortfall widening to "more than 3Mt by 2030E."

The analysts project that copper prices could rise to "$11,500/t (~$5.20/lb) by Q2’26, +24% vs the spot price."

Antofagasta’s operational risks, which weighed on production in 2023 and 2024, are also seen as largely resolved.

"Operational setbacks constrained copper output over 2023/24," including issues at the Centinela plant and delays at Los Pelambres, but JPMorgan believes these have been addressed.

The firm sees the company’s 2025 production guidance of 660-700kt as "achievable."

Despite trading at a premium to its European base metal peers, Antofagasta is now valued more in line with "larger-scale global copper peers on ~10x" enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiples, JPMorgan said.

Given the miner’s strong growth profile and fewer macro risks in 2025, the firm sees Antofagasta as well-positioned for further upside.

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19.02.25 07:01:29 Antofagasta PLC (ANFGF) (Q4 2024) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Financial Performance and ...
Revenue Growth: Increased by 5% in 2024. EBITDA Growth: Increased by 11% in 2024. EBITDA Margin: Increased by 300 basis points to 52%. Net Debt to EBITDA Ratio: Below 0.5 times. Final Dividend: $23.5 per share, totaling $31.4 per share or 50% payout ratio on 2024 net earnings. Production Increase: 1% increase in production. Cost Savings: $248 million in savings achieved through productivity improvements. Ore Reserves at Centinela: Increased by 35% to 2.6 billion tons. Long-term Committed Financing: More than $6 billion for growth portfolio development.

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with PLSQF.

Release Date: February 18, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

Antofagasta PLC (ANFGF) reported strong financial results for 2024, with revenue and EBITDA growth of 5% and 11% respectively, and margins increasing by 300 basis points to 52%. The company maintained a robust balance sheet with low net debt metrics and announced a final dividend equating to 50% of net earnings. Antofagasta PLC (ANFGF) achieved a record year in safety, with no fatalities and a significant reduction in high potential incidents. The company is well-positioned in the copper market with high-quality assets and a growth pipeline, including the Centinela Second Concentrator project, which is expected to increase production capacity. Sustainability is a core focus, with significant progress in decarbonization, water management, and community engagement initiatives, such as the Somos Choapa program.

Negative Points

Global copper supply faces challenges, including geological and technical constraints, rising capital intensities, and permitting delays, which could impact future production. The company is in a two-year lower grade window at Los Pelambres, which may affect short-term production levels. Antofagasta PLC (ANFGF) faces competition for capital allocation, with significant investments required for ongoing projects like Centinela and Pelambres. The Zaldivar operation is awaiting permit renewal, which poses a risk if not granted, potentially impacting future production plans. The company is navigating complex regulatory environments, such as the Twin Metals project in the US, which faces legal and permitting challenges.

Q & A Highlights

Q: How do we think about the path to 900,000 tons of copper production? Is it gradual or back-end loaded? A: Ivan Arriagada, CEO: The buildup involves securing water availability at Pelambres and increasing grades expected in 2026. The Centinela project will add 170,000 tons by 2028. Zaldivar's permit renewal and production growth are also key. The aspiration is to reach close to 900,000 tons by the end of the decade.

Story Continues

Q: Can you provide an update on Zaldivar's permit renewal and potential closure costs? A: Ivan Arriagada, CEO: The permit expires in May, and we've settled litigation. We're in the third round of submissions, expecting to submit shortly. We assume the permit will be renewed, and no permanent closure costs are involved. A temporary closure plan was submitted for regulatory purposes.

Q: Regarding Centinela's financing, should we expect similar debt financing levels in 2025? A: Mauricio Ortiz, CFO: We secured $2.5 billion for Centinela and achieved goals with the water transaction. We manage CapEx by drawing from project financing and shareholder agreements, maintaining flexibility in capital allocation.

Q: Is the second phase of growth at Centinela a priority now that Phase 1 construction is visible? A: Ivan Arriagada, CEO: It's considered an option rather than a priority. The focus is on building the first phase, delivering 95,000 tons/day capacity. The potential extension to 150,000 tons/day is being studied but remains an option.

Q: How does the current JV structure at Zaldivar align with deploying proprietary technology? A: Ivan Arriagada, CEO: Ownership discussions are separate from technology deployment. Commercial arrangements would be made for technology use, but ownership structure discussions are distinct.

Q: How would the Chilean Presidential election impact your strategy? A: Ivan Arriagada, CEO: The strategy remains unchanged. Institutional arrangements in Chile are solid. We expect improvements in permitting efficiency. Economic growth and security are key public concerns, likely to influence government agendas.

Q: What are your views on the Chinese copper smelter market and its impact on your sales strategy? A: Ivan Arriagada, CEO: The ample smelting capacity leads to low TCRCs, favorable for us. Our sales are balanced, primarily to Japan, with no significant changes expected in geographical distribution or contract terms.

Q: Are you confident in Centinela's mine plan delivering quality ore in 2025? A: Ivan Arriagada, CEO: Yes, we are confident that the mine plan will deliver the quality of ore to the mill in 2025.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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27.01.25 09:00:27 FTSE 100 LIVE: London stocks lower as DeepSeek's new model roils tech
Markets were on edge on Monday, with the FTSE 100 and European stocks taking a knock in early trade, as investors digest the latest developments from an upstart Chinese AI company called DeepSeek.

DeepSeek's lower-cost answer to ChatGPT has raised questions about the future need for AI chips and data centres. It was among the most downloaded apps on the AppStore over the weekend.

The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) fell 0.3% in early trade. Among the biggest losers were mining stocks Anglo American (AAL.L), Antofagasta (ANTO.L) and Glencore (GLEN.L) which lost ground following gains last week on price rises in the metals markets. Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) was 1.2% lower in early trade as investors look to the Ifo economic survey for a read on the health of the economy. The CAC 40 (^FCHI) in Paris fell 0.8% and the pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) dipped 0.7%. Amid tech jitters, Nasdaq futures contracts (NQ=F) were trading 3.2% lower ahead of the open in the US. The so-called "Magnificent 7" set of seven gigantic tech companies are due to report earnings this week. Markets are also watching Trump tariffs, as the President rowed back on threats to impose a 25% tariff on Colombia while it refused to accept the US returning Colombian migrants.LIVE5 updates

32 mins ago

Lucy Harley-McKeown

GSK higher in early trade as Oxford tie-up announced

Drugmaker GSK (GSK.L) rose more than 1.5% in early trade on Monday, buoyed by news that it has struck a £50m deal with Oxford University to develop cancer research treatments.

The three-year partnership will attempt to develop future cancer vaccines by studying how the disease develops.

"By exploring precancer biology and building on GSK’s expertise in the science of the immune system, we aim to generate key insights for people at risk of developing cancer," said GSK chief scientific officer Tony Wood. 44 mins ago

Lucy Harley-McKeown

Asian stocks head lower

Stocks across Asia lost ground on Monday as worries about Chinese AI company DeepSeek reverberated. The company's discounted R1 model knocked tech stocks, sending the Nikkei (^N225) in Japan 0.9% lower. The SSE Composite (000001.SS) also fell 0.1%.

According to a Reuters report, DeepSeek's says its new free assistant uses lower-cost chops and less data — a potential shock for chipmakers and owners of data centres.

Softbank (9984.T), which bets heavily on new AI tech, fell 8.3% in the session.

The focus will be on tech and tech investors later on today when US markets open. Nasdaq futures are already almost 3% in the red. 55 mins ago

Lucy Harley-McKeown

How US stocks are faring in premarket

US stocks look set to start the week in negative territory as geopolitical tensions between the US and Columbia ramp up. 58 mins ago

Lucy Harley-McKeown

US stocks on Friday

US stocks retreated on Friday, stalling a recent rally as investors digested the latest batch of earnings and weighed President Donald Trump's hints at a softer stance on China tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.3%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) also slipped 0.3% after the index hit its first record high of 2025 on Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gave up 0.5%.

Trump's call at Davos for cuts to US interest rates, oil prices, and taxes spurred investor optimism for his policies, buoying stocks this week. The major gauges ended the holiday-shortened week with gains, demonstrating the power of Trump's comments even as Wall Street questions his ability to execute the changes.

The Dow rose 3%, the S&P put on 2.8% and the Nasdaq gained 3.2% for the week. 59 mins ago

Lucy Harley-McKeown

Good morning

Hello again! Lucy Harley-McKeown here gearing up to bring you the latest markets news of the day.

This morning we have:

Dr. Martens (DOCS.L) trading statement Ryanair (RYA.IR) quarterly results German Ifo economic survey

Later:

US new home sales data

Let's get to it.

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24.01.25 08:51:15 FTSE 100 LIVE: Markets tick higher as UK consumer confidence takes a knock
The FTSE 100 and European stocks headed into the green on Friday morning, ticking higher despite dour data suggesting UK consumer confidence took a knock in January to its lowest point in over a year.

The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) ticked up 0.1%. Among the top risers were mining stocks Antofagasta (ANTO.L), Glencore (GLEN.L) and Anglo American (AAL.L). European stock indices were also in the green. The DAX (^GDAXI) in Germany was 0.3% higher, while Paris's CAC 40 (^FCHI) rose 0.8%. The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) rose 0.3%. GfK's consumer confidence index dropped by five points in January, the weakest reading since December 2023. The drop was down to worries over personal finances and pessimism about the UK's economic prospects.

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Lucy Harley-McKeown

UK sees modest housing affordability improvements: Nationwide

Latest data from Nationwide shows a modest improvement in UK housing affordability over the last year, due to earnings growth marginally outpacing house price growth and a slight reduction in average borrowing costs.

Nonetheless, housing affordability remains stretched by historic standards.

A prospective buyer earning the average UK income and buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would have a monthly mortgage payment equivalent to 36% of their take-home pay – well above the long-run average of 30%.

House prices remain high relative to average earnings, with the first-time buyer (FTB) house price to earnings ratio (HPER) standing at 5.0 at the end of 2024, still far above the long run average of 3.9.

Consequently, the deposit hurdle remains high. This is a challenge that has been made worse by the record increase in rents in recent years, which, together with the cost-of-living crisis more generally, has hampered the ability of many in the private rented sector to save.

The least affordable local authorities in each region by house price to earnings ratio (HPER) were: 42 mins ago

Lucy Harley-McKeown

Record increase in firms in financial distress

The BBC is reporting this morning there has been a record bump in the number of UK businesses in critical financial distress.

According to insolvency experts at Begbies Traynor there was a sharp increase of 50% from September to December last year, taking the number of businesses in this category to 46,583. This was up from 31,201 the three months before.

One major factor in this has been HMRC being more aggressive in collecting taxes owed by businesses.

Looking ahead to April, businesses are also concerned about tax rises priced into the budget. 53 mins ago

Lucy Harley-McKeown

Japan raises rates

In a widely expected move, the Bank of Japan hiked its key interest rate to 0.5% on Friday, a 17-year high.

Meanwhile, it raised its inflation outlook for the country for 2025 and 2026 — it's expected to be above the target of 2% until the end of next year.

ING analysts wrote:

The Nikkei closed slightly lower on Friday.

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Lucy Harley-McKeown

How US stocks are faring in premarket

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US stock futures are making tepid moves in premarket with the S&P 500 coming off all-time highs to trade slightly lower. 1 hr ago

Lucy Harley-McKeown

Overnight in the US: S&P 500 at fresh records

Our US team writes:

US stocks closed in the green on Thursday with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) nabbing a fresh record close as investors stayed attuned to remarks from President Donald Trump, who addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The broad based index finished the trading day up over 0.5%, securing its first all-time closing high of 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) popped around 0.9% but was unable to secure its own record, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) recovered from earlier losses to close up about 0.2%.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares capped off the trading day just above the flatline after its supplier SK Hynix (000660.KS) flagged uncertainty about chip demand this year, which also weighed on other related stocks throughout the session. Today at 8:12 AM UTC

Lucy Harley-McKeown

Good morning!

Hello from London. It's Friday! We've had a busy week, but we're not done yet.

This morning we'll be following the UK GfK consumer confidence readings. A hint on that one — it's not looking good.

Japan also hiked its interest rates this morning to a 17-year high.

Coming up:

ECB heads discuss the economic outlook at Davos Burberry (BRBY.L) trading update US quarterly results from American Express (AXP) and Verizon (VZ)

Let's get to it.

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15.01.25 06:50:03 Capital Allocation Trends At Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) Aren't Ideal
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an eye out for. One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after investigating Antofagasta (LON:ANTO), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Antofagasta:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.088 = US$1.7b ÷ (US$22b - US$2.9b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Thus, Antofagasta has an ROCE of 8.8%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 8.3% average generated by the Metals and Mining industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Antofagasta LSE:ANTO Return on Capital Employed January 15th 2025

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Antofagasta compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our freeanalyst report for Antofagasta .

How Are Returns Trending?

On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Antofagasta doesn't inspire confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 13%, but since then they've fallen to 8.8%. However it looks like Antofagasta might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.

The Key Takeaway

Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Antofagasta's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 107% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

On a separate note, we've found 1 warning sign for Antofagasta you'll probably want to know about.

Story Continues

While Antofagasta may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this freelist here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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