| ATOSS Software SE (DE0005104400) | |||
139,80 EURStand (close): 04.07.25 |
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| Datum / Uhrzeit | Titel | Bewertung |
| 30.06.25 05:50:49 | Is There Now An Opportunity In ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF)? |  |
| While ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a decent share price growth of 17% on the XTRA over the last few months. The company is now trading at yearly-high levels following the recent surge in its share price. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today we will analyse the most recent data on ATOSS Software’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. What's The Opportunity In ATOSS Software? ATOSS Software is currently expensive based on our price multiple model, where we look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. In this instance, we’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. We find that ATOSS Software’s ratio of 47.37x is above its peer average of 29.85x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Software industry. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that ATOSS Software’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility. See our latest analysis for ATOSS Software What does the future of ATOSS Software look like?XTRA:AOF Earnings and Revenue Growth June 30th 2025 Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. ATOSS Software's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 30%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value. What This Means For You Are you a shareholder? AOF’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe AOF should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed. Story Continues Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on AOF for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for AOF, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop. It can be quite valuable to consider what analysts expect for ATOSS Software from their most recent forecasts. So feel free to check out our free graph representing analyst forecasts. If you are no longer interested in ATOSS Software, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 23.05.25 05:02:22 | ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) Shares Could Be 34% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate |  |
| Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, ATOSS Software fair value estimate is €97.00 ATOSS Software's €130 share price signals that it might be 34% overvalued Analyst price target for AOF is €134, which is 38% above our fair value estimate How far off is ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine. We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. Is ATOSS Software Fairly Valued? We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €47.5m €53.9m €63.0m €69.4m €74.7m €78.9m €82.4m €85.2m €87.5m €89.6m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x5 Analyst x4 Est @ 10.26% Est @ 7.56% Est @ 5.67% Est @ 4.35% Est @ 3.43% Est @ 2.78% Est @ 2.33% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 6.1% €44.8 €47.8 €52.7 €54.7 €55.4 €55.2 €54.2 €52.9 €51.2 €49.3 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €518m Story Continues After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.1%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €90m× (1 + 1.3%) ÷ (6.1%– 1.3%) = €1.9b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €1.9b÷ ( 1 + 6.1%)10= €1.0b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €1.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €130, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.XTRA:AOF Discounted Cash Flow May 23rd 2025 The Assumptions We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at ATOSS Software as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.126. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for ATOSS Software SWOT Analysis for ATOSS Software Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Software market. Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Opportunity Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the German market. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the German market. Next Steps: Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For ATOSS Software, we've compiled three further elements you should explore: Financial Health: Does AOF have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Future Earnings: How does AOF's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 27.04.25 06:10:04 | Here's What We Like About ATOSS Software's (ETR:AOF) Upcoming Dividend | |
| Some investors rely on dividends for growing their wealth, and if you're one of those dividend sleuths, you might be intrigued to know that ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) is about to go ex-dividend in just four days. The ex-dividend date is commonly two business days before the record date, which is the cut-off date for shareholders to be present on the company's books to be eligible for a dividend payment. The ex-dividend date is an important date to be aware of as any purchase of the stock made on or after this date might mean a late settlement that doesn't show on the record date. In other words, investors can purchase ATOSS Software's shares before the 2nd of May in order to be eligible for the dividend, which will be paid on the 6th of May. The company's next dividend payment will be €2.13 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of €2.13 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, ATOSS Software has a trailing yield of 1.6% on the current stock price of €132.00. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. That's why we should always check whether the dividend payments appear sustainable, and if the company is growing. We check all companies for important risks. See what we found for ATOSS Software in our free report. Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. ATOSS Software paid out more than half (75%) of its earnings last year, which is a regular payout ratio for most companies. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. It distributed 46% of its free cash flow as dividends, a comfortable payout level for most companies. It's encouraging to see that the dividend is covered by both profit and cash flow. This generally suggests the dividend is sustainable, as long as earnings don't drop precipitously. View our latest analysis for ATOSS Software Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.XTRA:AOF Historic Dividend April 27th 2025 Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing? Companies with consistently growing earnings per share generally make the best dividend stocks, as they usually find it easier to grow dividends per share. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. It's encouraging to see ATOSS Software has grown its earnings rapidly, up 27% a year for the past five years. The current payout ratio suggests a good balance between rewarding shareholders with dividends, and reinvesting in growth. With a reasonable payout ratio, profits being reinvested, and some earnings growth, ATOSS Software could have strong prospects for future increases to the dividend. Story Continues Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. ATOSS Software has delivered an average of 25% per year annual increase in its dividend, based on the past 10 years of dividend payments. Both per-share earnings and dividends have both been growing rapidly in recent times, which is great to see. The Bottom Line Is ATOSS Software worth buying for its dividend? ATOSS Software's growing earnings per share and conservative payout ratios make for a decent combination. We also like that it paid out a lower percentage of its cash flow. ATOSS Software looks solid on this analysis overall, and we'd definitely consider investigating it more closely. Curious what other investors think of ATOSS Software? See what analysts are forecasting, with this visualisation of its historical and future estimated earnings and cash flow. A common investing mistake is buying the first interesting stock you see. Here you can find a full list of high-yield dividend stocks. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 30.03.25 06:19:29 | Here's Why We Think ATOSS Software (ETR:AOF) Might Deserve Your Attention Today | |
| The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. Unfortunately, these high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson. While a well funded company may sustain losses for years, it will need to generate a profit eventually, or else investors will move on and the company will wither away. If this kind of company isn't your style, you like companies that generate revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in ATOSS Software (ETR:AOF). While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it. How Quickly Is ATOSS Software Increasing Earnings Per Share? If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. That makes EPS growth an attractive quality for any company. Impressively, ATOSS Software has grown EPS by 33% per year, compound, in the last three years. If growth like this continues on into the future, then shareholders will have plenty to smile about. One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. The good news is that ATOSS Software is growing revenues, and EBIT margins improved by 3.0 percentage points to 37%, over the last year. Ticking those two boxes is a good sign of growth, in our book. In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart.XTRA:AOF Earnings and Revenue History March 30th 2025 See our latest analysis for ATOSS Software In investing, as in life, the future matters more than the past. So why not check out this freeinteractive visualization of ATOSS Software's forecast profits? Are ATOSS Software Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders? It's pleasing to see company leaders with putting their money on the line, so to speak, because it increases alignment of incentives between the people running the business, and its true owners. Shareholders will be pleased by the fact that insiders own ATOSS Software shares worth a considerable sum. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at €442m. This totals to 22% of shares in the company. Enough to lead management's decision making process down a path that brings the most benefit to shareholders. Looking very optimistic for investors. Story Continues It's good to see that insiders are invested in the company, but are remuneration levels reasonable? A brief analysis of the CEO compensation suggests they are. The median total compensation for CEOs of companies similar in size to ATOSS Software, with market caps between €924m and €3.0b, is around €1.5m. The ATOSS Software CEO received €939k in compensation for the year ending December 2023. That is actually below the median for CEO's of similarly sized companies. CEO compensation is hardly the most important aspect of a company to consider, but when it's reasonable, that gives a little more confidence that leadership are looking out for shareholder interests. It can also be a sign of a culture of integrity, in a broader sense. Is ATOSS Software Worth Keeping An Eye On? For growth investors, ATOSS Software's raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. If that's not enough, consider also that the CEO pay is quite reasonable, and insiders are well-invested alongside other shareholders. Everyone has their own preferences when it comes to investing but it definitely makes ATOSS Software look rather interesting indeed. While we've looked at the quality of the earnings, we haven't yet done any work to value the stock. So if you like to buy cheap, you may want to check if ATOSS Software is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry. There's always the possibility of doing well buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. But for those who consider these important metrics, we encourage you to check out companies that do have those features. You can access a tailored list of German companies which have demonstrated growth backed by significant insider holdings. Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 09.03.25 06:54:19 | ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) Stock Has Shown Weakness Lately But Financials Look Strong: Should Prospective Shareholders Make The Leap? | |
| With its stock down 3.0% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard ATOSS Software (ETR:AOF). However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. In this article, we decided to focus on ATOSS Software's ROE. ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments. See our latest analysis for ATOSS Software How Is ROE Calculated? Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula: Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity So, based on the above formula, the ROE for ATOSS Software is: 79% = €44m ÷ €56m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024). The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every €1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated €0.79 in profit. Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth? So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics. ATOSS Software's Earnings Growth And 79% ROE To begin with, ATOSS Software has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 16% which is quite remarkable. Under the circumstances, ATOSS Software's considerable five year net income growth of 24% was to be expected. As a next step, we compared ATOSS Software's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 6.8%.XTRA:AOF Past Earnings Growth March 9th 2025 The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about ATOSS Software's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry. Story Continues Is ATOSS Software Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits? ATOSS Software's significant three-year median payout ratio of 75% (where it is retaining only 25% of its income) suggests that the company has been able to achieve a high growth in earnings despite returning most of its income to shareholders. Additionally, ATOSS Software has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 64% of its profits over the next three years. However, ATOSS Software's future ROE is expected to decline to 49% despite there being not much change anticipated in the company's payout ratio. Summary Overall, we are quite pleased with ATOSS Software's performance. We are particularly impressed by the considerable earnings growth posted by the company, which was likely backed by its high ROE. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this freereport on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 15.02.25 07:41:23 | Investing in ATOSS Software (ETR:AOF) five years ago would have delivered you a 173% gain | |
| The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) share price has soared 156% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress. Check out our latest analysis for ATOSS Software To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement. Over half a decade, ATOSS Software managed to grow its earnings per share at 29% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 21% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).XTRA:AOF Earnings Per Share Growth February 15th 2025 We know that ATOSS Software has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our freereport on how its financial position has changed over time. What About Dividends? When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of ATOSS Software, it has a TSR of 173% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments! A Different Perspective Investors in ATOSS Software had a tough year, with a total loss of 5.5% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 21%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 22% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Is ATOSS Software cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide. Story Continues But note: ATOSS Software may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this freelist of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast). Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 20.01.25 09:51:08 | Is ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) Potentially Undervalued? | |
| ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the XTRA over the last few months, increasing to €138 at one point, and dropping to the lows of €108. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether ATOSS Software's current trading price of €111 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at ATOSS Software’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change. Check out our latest analysis for ATOSS Software What Is ATOSS Software Worth? According to our valuation model, ATOSS Software seems to be fairly priced at around 13.50% above our intrinsic value, which means if you buy ATOSS Software today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is €97.79, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since ATOSS Software’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market. What does the future of ATOSS Software look like?XTRA:AOF Earnings and Revenue Growth January 20th 2025 Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by a double-digit 12% over the next couple of years, the outlook is positive for ATOSS Software. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation. What This Means For You Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in AOF’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value? Story Continues Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on AOF, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop. It can be quite valuable to consider what analysts expect for ATOSS Software from their most recent forecasts. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here. If you are no longer interested in ATOSS Software, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 19.12.24 11:20:17 | With 23% stake, ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) seems to have captured institutional investors' interest | |
| Key Insights Given the large stake in the stock by institutions, ATOSS Software's stock price might be vulnerable to their trading decisions A total of 3 investors have a majority stake in the company with 63% ownership Insiders own 22% of ATOSS Software A look at the shareholders of ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) can tell us which group is most powerful. And the group that holds the biggest piece of the pie are institutions with 23% ownership. Put another way, the group faces the maximum upside potential (or downside risk). Because institutional owners have a huge pool of resources and liquidity, their investing decisions tend to carry a great deal of weight, especially with individual investors. Therefore, a good portion of institutional money invested in the company is usually a huge vote of confidence on its future. In the chart below, we zoom in on the different ownership groups of ATOSS Software. View our latest analysis for ATOSS Software XTRA:AOF Ownership Breakdown December 19th 2024 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About ATOSS Software? Institutions typically measure themselves against a benchmark when reporting to their own investors, so they often become more enthusiastic about a stock once it's included in a major index. We would expect most companies to have some institutions on the register, especially if they are growing. ATOSS Software already has institutions on the share registry. Indeed, they own a respectable stake in the company. This can indicate that the company has a certain degree of credibility in the investment community. However, it is best to be wary of relying on the supposed validation that comes with institutional investors. They too, get it wrong sometimes. When multiple institutions own a stock, there's always a risk that they are in a 'crowded trade'. When such a trade goes wrong, multiple parties may compete to sell stock fast. This risk is higher in a company without a history of growth. You can see ATOSS Software's historic earnings and revenue below, but keep in mind there's always more to the story.XTRA:AOF Earnings and Revenue Growth December 19th 2024 ATOSS Software is not owned by hedge funds. With a 22% stake, CEO Andreas F. Obereder is the largest shareholder. Meanwhile, the second and third largest shareholders, hold 22% and 20%, of the shares outstanding, respectively. To make our study more interesting, we found that the top 3 shareholders have a majority ownership in the company, meaning that they are powerful enough to influence the decisions of the company. While it makes sense to study institutional ownership data for a company, it also makes sense to study analyst sentiments to know which way the wind is blowing. There are plenty of analysts covering the stock, so it might be worth seeing what they are forecasting, too. Story Continues Insider Ownership Of ATOSS Software The definition of company insiders can be subjective and does vary between jurisdictions. Our data reflects individual insiders, capturing board members at the very least. The company management answer to the board and the latter should represent the interests of shareholders. Notably, sometimes top-level managers are on the board themselves. Insider ownership is positive when it signals leadership are thinking like the true owners of the company. However, high insider ownership can also give immense power to a small group within the company. This can be negative in some circumstances. Our information suggests that insiders maintain a significant holding in ATOSS Software SE. It is very interesting to see that insiders have a meaningful €406m stake in this €1.9b business. Most would be pleased to see the board is investing alongside them. You may wish to access this free chart showing recent trading by insiders. General Public Ownership The general public-- including retail investors -- own 14% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this size of ownership may not be enough to sway a policy decision in their favour, they can still make a collective impact on company policies. Private Equity Ownership Private equity firms hold a 22% stake in ATOSS Software. This suggests they can be influential in key policy decisions. Some investors might be encouraged by this, since private equity are sometimes able to encourage strategies that help the market see the value in the company. Alternatively, those holders might be exiting the investment after taking it public. Private Company Ownership It seems that Private Companies own 20%, of the ATOSS Software stock. It might be worth looking deeper into this. If related parties, such as insiders, have an interest in one of these private companies, that should be disclosed in the annual report. Private companies may also have a strategic interest in the company. Next Steps: I find it very interesting to look at who exactly owns a company. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. I like to dive deeper into how a company has performed in the past. You can find historic revenue and earnings in this detailed graph. Ultimately the future is most important. You can access this freereport on analyst forecasts for the company. NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 02.12.24 11:17:27 | Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) | |
| Key Insights ATOSS Software's estimated fair value is €105 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With €124 share price, ATOSS Software appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value Our fair value estimate is 17% lower than ATOSS Software's analyst price target of €126 In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of ATOSS Software SE (ETR:AOF) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine. Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Check out our latest analysis for ATOSS Software Crunching The Numbers We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €46.2m €53.7m €61.0m €66.2m €70.3m €73.6m €76.2m €78.3m €80.0m €81.5m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x6 Analyst x1 Est @ 8.49% Est @ 6.23% Est @ 4.65% Est @ 3.54% Est @ 2.77% Est @ 2.23% Est @ 1.85% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 5.2% €43.9 €48.5 €52.3 €54.0 €54.5 €54.2 €53.3 €52.0 €50.5 €48.9 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €512m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.2%. Story Continues Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €82m× (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (5.2%– 1.0%) = €1.9b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €1.9b÷ ( 1 + 5.2%)10= €1.2b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €1.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €124, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.XTRA:AOF Discounted Cash Flow December 2nd 2024 Important Assumptions We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at ATOSS Software as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.038. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. SWOT Analysis for ATOSS Software Strength Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry. Debt is not viewed as a risk. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Software market. Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Opportunity Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the German market. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the German market. Looking Ahead: Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For ATOSS Software, there are three additional elements you should look at: Financial Health: Does AOF have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Future Earnings: How does AOF's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 20.10.24 08:26:58 | With EPS Growth And More, ATOSS Software (ETR:AOF) Makes An Interesting Case | |
| For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. Unfortunately, these high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up. In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like ATOSS Software (ETR:AOF), which has not only revenues, but also profits. Even if this company is fairly valued by the market, investors would agree that generating consistent profits will continue to provide ATOSS Software with the means to add long-term value to shareholders. View our latest analysis for ATOSS Software How Fast Is ATOSS Software Growing? Generally, companies experiencing growth in earnings per share (EPS) should see similar trends in share price. That makes EPS growth an attractive quality for any company. It certainly is nice to see that ATOSS Software has managed to grow EPS by 32% per year over three years. This has no doubt fuelled the optimism that sees the stock trading on a high multiple of earnings. Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. The good news is that ATOSS Software is growing revenues, and EBIT margins improved by 4.5 percentage points to 35%, over the last year. Ticking those two boxes is a good sign of growth, in our book. In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart. earnings-and-revenue-history Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for ATOSS Software. Are ATOSS Software Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders? It should give investors a sense of security owning shares in a company if insiders also own shares, creating a close alignment their interests. Shareholders will be pleased by the fact that insiders own ATOSS Software shares worth a considerable sum. We note that their impressive stake in the company is worth €466m. That equates to 22% of the company, making insiders powerful and aligned with other shareholders. So there is opportunity here to invest in a company whose management have tangible incentives to deliver. Story continues Does ATOSS Software Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist? If you believe that share price follows earnings per share you should definitely be delving further into ATOSS Software's strong EPS growth. Further, the high level of insider ownership is impressive and suggests that the management appreciates the EPS growth and has faith in ATOSS Software's continuing strength. The growth and insider confidence is looked upon well and so it's worthwhile to investigate further with a view to discern the stock's true value. Another important measure of business quality not discussed here, is return on equity (ROE). Click on this link to see how ATOSS Software shapes up to industry peers, when it comes to ROE. While opting for stocks without growing earnings and absent insider buying can yield results, for investors valuing these key metrics, here is a carefully selected list of companies in DE with promising growth potential and insider confidence. Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View comments |
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