| Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DE0005140008) | |||
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| 16.06.25 16:58:45 | Deutsche Bank is now bullish on Cisco - highlights AI tailwinds |  |
| Investing.com -- Deutsche Bank revealed in a note Monday that it has upgraded Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) shares from Hold to Buy, citing improving growth visibility and strengthening AI-related demand. The bank also raised its price target on the stock from $65 to $73, implying upside from the last closing price of $64.09. Advertisement: High Yield Savings Offers Earn 4.10% APY** on balances of $5,000 or more View Offer Earn up to 4.00% APY with Savings Pods View Offer Earn up to 3.80% APY¹ & up to $300 Cash Bonus with Direct Deposit View Offer Powered by Money.com - Yahoo may earn commission from the links above. The bank sees “improved visibility towards durable mid-single-digit growth in upcoming years,” Deutsche Bank wrote, pointing to tailwinds across AI infrastructure, enterprise deployments, and sovereign spending. “Tailwinds from AI (across webscale, enterprise and sovereign), a Campus portfolio refresh, more favorable near-term competitive dynamics in Networking and improved scale in Security” are all expected to support revenue momentum, the note said. Cisco’s earnings outlook is also strengthening, with Deutsche Bank now forecasting a “high-single-digit (7-8%) EPS CAGR looking forward.” This growth, the analysts noted, is underpinned by an increasingly attractive revenue mix, with 56% of total revenue now coming from subscription software and services. The shift is expected to support stable margins and allow for continued reinvestment. The firm also sees Cisco’s global supply chain strength as a key competitive advantage. “Cisco’s breadth of supply chain enables it to more deftly navigate incremental tariffs and re-invest in growth,” Deutsche Bank said, referring to ongoing trade tensions and the potential for increased cross-border duties. The analysts believe that Cisco is showing “increasing visibility towards delivering on targets.” Related articles Deutsche Bank is now bullish on Cisco - highlights AI tailwinds Boeing Commercial Airplanes head meets Air India chairman after fatal 787 crash Forward Air stock surges on report PE firms express acquisition interest View Comments |
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| 23.04.25 20:25:57 | Deutsche Bank price target raised to EUR 20.80 from EUR 19.20 at Citi |  |
| Citi raised the firm’s price target on Deutsche Bank (DB) to EUR 20.80 from EUR 19.20 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Recent market volatility has resulted in record capital market volumes in March amd April, most notably in equities, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm recommends owning selective European banks into the Q1 results. Stay Ahead of the Market: Discover outperforming stocks and invest smarter with Top Smart Score Stocks. Filter, analyze, and streamline your search for investment opportunities using Tipranks' Stock Screener. Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>> See Insiders’ Hot Stocks on TipRanks >> Read More on DB: Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue Trump’s “Bitcoin Superpower” Plan Reshapes Crypto’s Role in Banking Analysts Slam General Motors (GM) with Downgrades amid Trump’s Tariffs Storm Deutsche Bank price target lowered to EUR 23.90 from EUR 24.80 at Barclays Deutsche Bank price target lowered to EUR 24 from EUR 26 at Morgan Stanley Deutsche Bank AG (DB) Declares Q2 Dividend: Important Details for Shareholders View Comments |
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| 18.04.25 07:21:48 | Asian Stocks Edge Higher in Thin Holiday Trading: Markets Wrap | |
| (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks notched up small gains as investors largely adopted a wait-and-watch approach on tariff negotiations before taking long-term bets. Most Read from Bloomberg Trump Signs Executive Orders on Federal Purchasing, Office Space DOGE Places Entire Staff of Federal Homelessness Agency on Leave Trump Administration Takes Over New York Penn Station Revamp How Did This Suburb Figure Out Mass Transit? Why the Best Bike Lanes Always Get Blamed The Nikkei-225 gauge in Japan advanced 1%. Shares in mainland China were little changed, paring earlier losses that were caused by a US plan to impose levies on Chinese vessels docking at its ports. The New Zealand dollar extended a decline from a five-month high. Most of the other markets in the region were shut for the Good Friday holiday. Traders are focused more on developments in country-specific discussions, seeking clues on how the tariffs will pan out. After the “big progress” in the Japan-US talks, President Donald Trump said he’s “very confident” of a deal with the European Union. Questions surround the status of China talks after Beijing indicated it has several conditions for agreeing to talks with the administration. “Trump was not negative on trade negotiations with the EU,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management Co. “The Japan-US negotiations that ended yesterday were also a good first round with no disturbance as currency exchange was not on the agenda.” The yen was little changed Friday after weakening in the prior session as Japan’s top negotiator said currencies weren’t discussed in the bilateral meeting. That allayed concerns a stronger exchange rate would be part of the US demands. While Trump didn’t offer details of any agreement with the EU, he was decisive on a critical US-Ukraine minerals accord, saying a deal would be signed next week. The president also said he was reluctant to continue ratcheting up tariffs on China because it could stall trade between the two countries, and insisted Beijing had repeatedly reached out in a bid to broker a deal. Still, the administration took steps to impose levies on Chinese vessels docking at US ports, threatening to shake up global shipping routes and escalate the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. Shipping stocks in Japan and South Korea such as Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. and HMM Co. rose on the news. Trump’s tariff deluge has prompted some Chinese clients to reduce their Treasuries holdings in favor of European debt, according to Deutsche Bank AG. European high-quality bonds, Japanese government bonds and gold are likely to be the potential choices for investors as alternatives to Treasuries, said Lillian Tao, head of the bank’s macro and global emerging market sales. Story Continues Meanwhile, China’s sovereign wealth fund appears to have stepped in to shore up stocks this week as escalating trade tensions rattle investors. Exchange-traded funds known to be favored by China’s so-called national team saw a surge in turnover in the final 20 minutes of the session in the past three days. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.’s shares fell Friday after a US congressional committee called on two American banks to withdraw from working on the Chinese battery maker’s planned initial public offering in Hong Kong. Elsewhere in Japan, consumer inflation advanced apace last month, supporting the central bank’s stance on a gradual rate-hike path. The price of rice, the nation’s staple food, rose 92.1% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in data going back to 1971. US equities posted a weekly loss amid disappointment over Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s push back on the idea of the central bank supporting markets. Trump criticized Powell on social media, saying the Fed Chair’s termination from his post can’t come quickly enough, arguing that the central bank should have cut interest rates already this year. Trump later told reporters he could force Powell out if he wanted to. Some of the main moves in markets: Stocks Japan’s Topix rose 1.1% The Shanghai Composite was little changed Currencies The euro was little changed at $1.1375 The Japanese yen was little changed at 142.34 per dollar Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $84,654.17 Ether fell 0.1% to $1,582.4 This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. --With assistance from Toby Alder, Toshiro Hasegawa and April Ma. Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek How Mar-a-Lago Memberships Explain Trump’s Tariff Obsession Trade Tensions With China Clear Path for Salt-Powered Batteries Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose GM’s Mary Barra Has to Make a $35 Billion EV Bet Work in Trump’s America It’s Legal to Pay US Workers With Disabilities as Little as 25¢ an Hour ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments |
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| 15.04.25 12:48:38 | Deutsche Bank (DB): Among the Best Performing Stocks in Europe | |
| We recently published a list of 11 Top Performing European Stocks So Far In 2025. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB) stands against other best performing European stocks to invest in. The world economy is hanging by a thread, as the macroeconomic environment consists of trade wars, retaliatory tariffs, and political unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East. It adds to economic uncertainty, with market experts offering cautious economic forecasts. According to EY, the euro area will experience a modest economic turnaround in 2025, and growth is expected to increase from 0.7% last year to 1.3% and 1.8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. It is forecasted to simmer down to 1.4% in 2027. Among all European countries, Malta is projected to experience the highest GDP growth in 2025 at 4%. EY expects soft employment growth across Europe, driven by demographic challenges and subdued labor demand. Unemployment will likely remain at 2024 levels. While nominal wage this year will clock in higher than pre-pandemic levels, wage growth will take a hit. Central and Eastern European countries are forecasted to experience relatively higher inflation in 2025, while the overall rate remains just over 2% in the euro area. Meanwhile, German economic institutes have slashed their growth projections for 2025 to 0.1% from the previous forecast of 0.8% in September 2024. This revised estimate does not incorporate the recent tariffs levied by the US. These tariffs will be a major setback for European economies, possibly toppling them over the edge of recession for the third consecutive year. The new conservative government declared a €500 billion fund to improve infrastructure and defence and stimulate growth. The fiscal package enhances the economic outlook for 2026 and 2027. However, as the United States is feeling the pressure from high valuations and growing political instability, analysts are looking towards Europe as a better bet for stock investors. Analysts point towards Europe offering a more stable outlook, with lower stock prices, clearer policy direction, and even potential interest rate cuts on the horizon. Investors seem to be shifting their focus, partly because the threat of US tariffs on Europe, especially on automobiles, feels less uncertain now that details are clearer. There is also less exposure to tech in Europe, which is seen as a good thing right now. Europe’s markets, with just 10% tech exposure in the Europe 600 compared to 30% in the broader market, look more balanced. Story Continues With solid earnings, rising share buybacks, and cheaper stock valuations, investors are turning to Europe. Experts suggest that European and UK markets now have their best shot in years at outperforming the US. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best-performing stocks in Europe so far in 2025.Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB): Among the Best Performing Stocks in Europe A successful businesswoman pointing to a digital chart with her team in the background, highlighting the organization's investment advice and digital offerings. Our Methodology To compile our list of the top performing European stocks this year, used the Finviz screener, applying filters for the region and a market cap of over 10 billion to identify stable European companies. Next, we applied a performance filter and selected 11 European stocks with the highest YTD share price growth as of April 11. We have also mentioned the Q4 2024 hedge fund sentiment around the holdings for further insight. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here). Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB) Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 15 YTD Share Price Performance as of April 11: 30.65% Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB) is a German financial services company operating through four main segments – Corporate Bank, Investment Bank, Private Bank, and Asset Management. It is one of the best performing stocks from Europe so far in 2025, with shares up nearly 31% as of April 11. RBC Capital's analysts reiterated an Outperform rating on Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB) on April 8 but reduced the target price to €23 from €26. RBC Capital sees solid Q1 2025 results for Deutsche Bank but has trimmed its price target due to a cautious outlook on future profits. The investment firm expects higher trading revenue but weaker investment banking fees and larger loan losses. A 2025 share buyback seems unlikely as well. The company made over €30 billion in revenue during 2024, and despite €1.7 billion in legal costs, DB is staying on track due to smart investments in growth, tech, and efficiency. The bank is controlling costs steadily and expects to bring its cost-income ratio below 65% by the end of 2025. The company also initiated a €750 million share buyback along with a $0.68 dividend for 2024. That brings total shareholder returns for the year to €2.1 billion, with a bigger goal of exceeding €8 billion. According to Insider Monkey’s fourth quarter database, 15 hedge funds reported owning stakes in Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB), up from 12 funds in the prior quarter. Paul Marshall and Ian Wace’s Marshall Wace LLP is a prominent stakeholder of the company, with 15 million shares valued at nearly $259 million. Overall, DB ranks 3rd among the 11 Top Performing European Stocks So Far In 2025. While we acknowledge the potential of European stocks, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than DB but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. View Comments |
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| 09.04.25 12:32:54 | Bessent Sees ‘Normal Deleveraging’ in Bonds, Warns China on Yuan | |
| (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down a selloff in US Treasuries, saying that there was nothing systemic at play, and also served warning against China not to attempt to devalue its exchange rate in retaliation for American tariff hikes. “There’s one of these deleveraging convulsions that’s going on right now in the markets,” Bessent said on Fox Business, adding that he’d witnessed those very often in his hedge-fund career. “It’s in the fixed-income market. There are some very large leverage players who are experiencing losses, that are having to deleverage.” Longer-dated Treasuries have borne the brunt of declines in the market for US government bonds in recent days, sliding even amidst a decline in stocks — going against their typical safe-haven role. Thirty-year US bond yields have surged by about half a percentage point so far this week. “I believe that there is nothing systemic about this — I think that it is an uncomfortable but normal deleveraging that’s going on in the bond market,” Bessent said. As leverage in the $29 trillion Treasuries market comes down, “the market will calm down,” Bessent said. For now, risk managers are “tapping people on the shoulders, telling them to bring their books down — which is what happens every couple years as leverage builds up.” China Warning The Treasury secretary’s read on the market contrasted with the view of Deutsche Bank AG strategist George Saravelos, who warned that the Federal Reserve may need to step in to stabilize Treasuries. That’s what happened in March 2020, when the Covid crisis hit and trading froze up, triggering massive purchases by the US central bank. Bessent was speaking shortly after China announced its retaliation against the latest US tariff hikes on Chinese products. Beijing raised its own levies on American imports to 84%, after President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” duties added a 104% surtax on Chinese goods. “It’s unfortunate that the Chinese actually don’t want to come and negotiate, because they are the worst offenders in the international trading system,” Bessent said. What Beijing “should not do is try to devalue their way out of this,” he said. China’s central bank on Wednesday weakened the yuan’s daily reference rate for a fifth straight session. The move came after the offshore yuan on Tuesday slumped to the weakest level since the creation of the market in 2010. Any devaluation campaign would spur the rest of the world to “keep raising their tariffs to offset the devaluation,” Bessent said. He also highlighted that many countries surrounding China are now seeking trade negotiations with Washington in the wake of the reciprocal tariff action. Story Continues In addition to talks with Japan that are set to kick off “soon,” Bessent said that a Vietnamese delegation is coming to Washington Wednesday. He also highlighted South Korea and India as seeking talks. The Treasury chief also noted that export capital controls are under consideration at the White House. It will be up to Trump to decide on a “black list of things that US — whether pension funds, endowments, investors — should not be investing in to fund the Chinese military machine.” (Updates with additional comments starting in 5th paragraph.) More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments |
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| 08.04.25 13:56:40 | Deutsche Bank Asks If A 50bps Rate Cut in May at Bank of England Is Possible | |
| Recent newsflow has opened the door for the Bank of England to deliver a larger, and more 'forceful' PREMIUM Upgrade to read this MT Newswires article and get so much more. A Silver or Gold subscription plan is required to access premium news articles. Upgrade Already have a subscription? Sign in |
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| 06.04.25 08:01:42 | Deutsche Bank's (ETR:DBK) Dividend Will Be Increased To €0.68 | |
| Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft's (ETR:DBK) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to €0.68 on 27th of May. This makes the dividend yield 3.6%, which is above the industry average. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. Deutsche Bank's Payment Expected To Have Solid Earnings Coverage If the payments aren't sustainable, a high yield for a few years won't matter that much. Deutsche Bank has a long history of paying out dividends, with its current track record at a minimum of 10 years. Taking data from its last earnings report, calculating for the company's payout ratio shows 49%, which means that Deutsche Bank would be able to pay its last dividend without pressure on the balance sheet. Looking forward, EPS is forecast to rise by 146.0% over the next 3 years. Analysts estimate the future payout ratio will be 35% over the same time period, which is in the range that makes us comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.XTRA:DBK Historic Dividend April 6th 2025 View our latest analysis for Deutsche Bank Dividend Volatility While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was €0.75 in 2015, and the most recent fiscal year payment was €0.68. Dividend payments have shrunk at a rate of less than 1% per annum over this time frame. A company that decreases its dividend over time generally isn't what we are looking for. The Dividend Looks Likely To Grow With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to see if earnings per share is growing. It's encouraging to see that Deutsche Bank has been growing its earnings per share at 53% a year over the past five years. The company's earnings per share has grown rapidly in recent years, and it has a good balance between reinvesting and paying dividends to shareholders, so we think that Deutsche Bank could prove to be a strong dividend payer. Deutsche Bank Looks Like A Great Dividend Stock In summary, it is always positive to see the dividend being increased, and we are particularly pleased with its overall sustainability. The company is easily earning enough to cover its dividend payments and it is great to see that these earnings are being translated into cash flow. All of these factors considered, we think this has solid potential as a dividend stock. Story Continues Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. For example, we've picked out 3 warning signs for Deutsche Bank that investors should know about before committing capital to this stock. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 03.04.25 13:36:00 | S&P 500 Pushed to Breaking Point as Trump Trade War Grips Stocks | |
| (Bloomberg) -- The S&P 500 Index is on the brink of a crucial technical inflection point that threatens a longer-term wipeout after President Donald Trump imposed the steepest American tariffs in a century. Most Read from Bloomberg Metro-North Is Faster Than Acela on NYC-New Haven Route After Signal Updates London Clears Final Hurdle for More High-Speed Trains to Europe Local Governments Vie for Fired Federal Workers Chicago School District Agrees to Minimum 16% Teacher Pay Raise The index’s more than 3% tumble at the open puts the American equities benchmark roughly at the correction level of around 5,500. If it holds, there are few levels beneath that key psychological threshold to lure dip buyers, according to technical analysts, who monitor daily averages and other metrics to determine market momentum. Wall Street pros have been waiting for the “Trump put,” to arrive, meaning they expected the president to step in and stop any significant damage to the stock market. But he caused this selloff. So traders are now watching key technical levels, since that positioning can dictate the stops and starts in near-term price action when technicals and economic outlooks are out the window. “There is a whiff of panic in the air,” said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “Trump and Bessent are trying to sell this trade war to Americans, but the stock market isn’t buying it. People are sick of this rhetoric, they don’t see how tariffs will do anything but potentially throw the US into a recession and now are rushing to yank their money out of the market.” If the S&P 500 fails to hold around 5,500, it risks sliding down to the 4,900 to 5,300 range. That has strategists thinking of their year-end targets. For example, that degree of a drop would make RBC Capital Markets’s year-end S&P bear case of 5,550 more likely than its current price target of 6,200, according to Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at the firm. During the last trade war in 2018 and 2019, equities positioning fell to the bottom of its historical band. In today’s terms, the S&P 500 would need to sink to 5,250 — a drop of more than 7% from Wednesday’s close of 5,670.97, Deutsche Bank AG data show. Beyond that, technical traders are eyeing 5,119.26 — the S&P’s Aug. 5 low when the unwinding of the yen carry trade rattled markets. Another key level to watch is how far the S&P 500 falls below its 200-day moving average around 5,762, Woods said. The index snapped a streak of 336 sessions above the threshold last month, and was 2% below at Wednesday’s close. In prior selloffs in 2022, 2020 and 2018 it dropped more than 10% below that support line. Story Continues Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, says the 5,400 level near the S&P 500’s lows in early September is crucial. He’s also monitoring support between 5,375 to 5,425 based on important notable Fibonacci levels from the bear-market lows in 2022. Market technicians monitor retracement levels based on Fibonacci numbers to identify points of support and resistance where stock prices potentially reverse direction. “The sheer speed of the decline will leave scar tissue,” said John Kolovos, head of technical strategy at Macro Risk Advisors. “Listening to Trump was very serious tone — unwavering almost — which is sending a signal that these tariffs aren’t going to go down after negotiations anytime soon. April 2 was a ‘culmination’ of a lifelong ambition on tariffs.” Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek LA Fire Victims Are Betting on a Radical Idea to Help Them Rebuild With Shake Shack in First Class, Airline Food Is No Longer a Joke China Tells Kids to Study Manufacturing to Fill Factory Jobs Trump’s IRS Cuts Are Tempting Taxpayers to Cheat Google Is Searching for an Answer to ChatGPT ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments |
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| 03.04.25 11:22:18 | Dollar Drops by Most Since 2022 as Traders Brace for More Pain | |
| (Bloomberg) -- The dollar sank by the most in two and a half years after President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs sparked a broad retreat in the US currency, leaving traders bracing for further declines. Most Read from Bloomberg Metro-North Is Faster Than Acela on NYC-New Haven Route After Signal Updates London Clears Final Hurdle for More High-Speed Trains to Europe Local Governments Vie for Fired Federal Workers What Frank Lloyd Wright Learned From the Desert Chicago School District Agrees to Minimum 16% Teacher Pay Raise The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 1.8% on Thursday and the greenback tumbled against all G-10 currencies in a volatile session, at one point dropping by the most in almost a decade versus the euro. Investors are bearish on the dollar in the coming month for the first time since September, options data show. “The dollar has been the big loser of last night’s events,” said Sonja Marten, head of FX and monetary policy research at DZ Bank AB in Frankfurt, in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “People are now focusing on the economic fallout these tariffs can have on the US itself.” Currency traders see a slowdown in the American economy as a bigger threat — for now — than a resurgence in inflation. That’s fueling bets on deeper interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to boost growth, and adding to depreciation pressure on the greenback. Deutsche Bank Warns Dollar at Risk of Broad ‘Confidence Crisis’ Hedge funds have increased their bearish bets on the dollar, mainly versus the yen and the euro, while also predicting higher volatility into year-end, according to currency traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. Overnight-indexed swaps signaled an 80% chance of Fed rate cuts by June, up from 76% on Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell close to 4%. “We are in the midst of dramatic regime change in markets,” George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank AG’s global head of FX strategy, wrote in a note to clients. “Given the dramatic nature of the moves, we are becoming increasingly concerned that the dollar is at risk of a broader confidence crisis.” Trump announced Wednesday he will apply a tariff of at least 10% on all exporters to the US, with even higher duties on some 60 nations to counter large trade imbalances with the US. In response, Canada said it will fight tariffs with counter-measures while China and EU have also vowed to retaliate. What our strategists are saying... “The dollar is declining because it is trading like a risk currency. ... In Europe, dollar weakness may also be down to the bloc’s anti-coercion instrument, which should allow swift retaliation. It remains the case that conventional economics suggests the dollar should strengthen in coming weeks, undoing the knee-jerk selloff. That’s what happened in 2018-2019 during Trump’s last foray into tariffs.” Story Continues —Sebastian Boyd, Markets Live Strategist, Santiago Despite the focus on the tariffs’ impact on growth, the threat of faster inflation hasn’t gone away. “This is not as simple as ‘US growth will be weaker, the Fed will cut more, sell the dollar,”’ Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo, said. The central bank’s response in the coming days will be critical for the dollar’s path, he added. “If the Fed leans more into the growth side of its mandate, the euro can keep rising against the dollar, but if inflation concerns come to the fore, the dollar selloff will stop dead in its tracks.” For now, he’s recommending a long position on the euro versus the dollar and the pound. Citigroup Inc. strategists, meanwhile, recommend a wager on the euro hitting $1.15 in the coming months on the view that tariffs will deliver a bigger blow to US equity earnings compared with those in Europe. A Consultant Who Beat Wall Street Stands By Bullish Euro Call --With assistance from Aline Oyamada, Catherine Bosley and Kriti Gupta. (Updates prices; adds Citi recommendation in last paragraph) Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek LA Fire Victims Are Betting on a Radical Idea to Help Them Rebuild With Shake Shack in First Class, Airline Food Is No Longer a Joke China Tells Kids to Study Manufacturing to Fill Factory Jobs Trump’s IRS Cuts Are Tempting Taxpayers to Cheat Google Is Searching for an Answer to ChatGPT ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments |
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| 03.04.25 11:20:45 | Emerging-Market Investors Brace for ‘Body Blow’ From US Tariffs | |
| (Bloomberg) -- Assets across the developing world tumbled after President Donald Trump announced steep tariffs on export-driven nations, with the smallest and weakest economies targeted alongside China. Most Read from Bloomberg Metro-North Is Faster Than Acela on NYC-New Haven Route After Signal Updates London Clears Final Hurdle for More High-Speed Trains to Europe Local Governments Vie for Fired Federal Workers What Frank Lloyd Wright Learned From the Desert Chicago School District Agrees to Minimum 16% Teacher Pay Raise The MSCI index for developing-world stocks fell 0.8% as of 11:43 a.m. in London. Meanwhile a currencies equivalent was steady, even as the dollar weakened against developed counterparts. The Chinese yuan, an anchor for Asian currencies, dropped the most worldwide. Asian economies were heavily targeted by the US president’s so-called “discounted reciprocal” tariffs, with Thailand facing a 36% levy on its exports and Vietnam slapped with a 46% duty. Some of the poorest countries were punished for their trade imbalances with the US, with Cambodia’s tariffs set at 49% and the tiny African kingdom of Lesotho charged 50%. Even Israel, despite its status as America’s closest ally in the Middle East, had a 17% levy placed on its exports. “It is hard not to see last night’s events as a body blow to EM exporters - and for many, there is no obvious substitute to US consumer demand,” said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe Ltd. in London. “We think markets have underestimated just how disruptive this could be - but that will likely only become apparent as second-round impacts emerge in the coming days and weeks.” A Bloomberg gauge of Asian emerging-market stocks fell 1.1%, with Vietnam’s benchmark plunging more than 6% and South Korean shares sliding almost 3% before paring losses. Consumer discretionary and financial shares were the worst-performing sectors in the region. Negotiations Begin Eastern European currencies gained against the dollar, mirroring the euro’s rise against the greenback. But regional currencies weakened against the single currency due to their economies’ dependence on exports to the euro area, with the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty among the worst performers. “Countries like Poland, Romania, and the Baltics offer a lower-cost, EU-aligned alternative, with good infrastructure and an increasingly skilled workforce,” said Kasparas Subacius, head of fixed income at SB Asset Management, based in Vilnius. “They’re also already embedded in the EU single market, which makes the switch smoother.” Story Continues Public reaction from governments in developing nations was muted in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s announcement Wednesday, and the tariffs are now expected to set off negotiations with the White House to try and reduce the blow. Thailand is devising short-term measures to help cushion the impact on manufacturers and exporters, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said. Vietnam planned to dispatch another delegation to the US after an earlier charm offensive failed. The tariffs have shown little distinction or favor for close US allies or leaders friendly with Trump. Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban has a close rapport with the US president, will see its fragile economy hit particularly hard because it relies heavily on car production. The nation’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto blamed the European Union for missing an opportunity to reach a deal with the US before it was too late. Dollar Buffer The blowback to the dollar, however, provided some reassurance for emerging-market specialists, particularly fixed-income investors. “So far the USD weakening provides a welcome buffer, especially for EM local debt,” said Guillaume Tresca, global EM strategist at Generali Investments. “I still prefer EM external debt over local debt given the level of uncertainty, but I have to admit that the weakening of the USD makes local debt more attractive than before.” Emerging-market dollar bonds edged lower on Thursday in their second day of declines, according to the iShares J.P. Morgan USD EM Bond UCITS ETF. Both hard-currency and local-currency EM bonds have seen gains this year, with total returns on a Bloomberg hard-currency index approaching 3% year-to-date, the best start to a year since 2019. The Mexican peso gained 0.5% after the nation was spared from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs alongside Canada. “Clearly the Mexican door is still not shut and that’s a big opportunity,” said Chetan Sehgal, a portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investments, who said the firm increased its exposure to Mexican stocks. “Trying to bypass trade by shifting manufacturing locations may not be the best strategy any more. Mexico still offers that opportunity but there’s a lot of localization requirements, which makes it more difficult and therefore more acceptable to the US.” Questions Abound Many analysts questioned the rationale and effectiveness of the tariffs, with Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos saying in a note that the simplistic method of calculating them raised questions about US policy credibility. “The market may question the extent to which a sufficiently structured planning process for major economic decisions is taking place,” Saravelos said. “After all, this is the biggest trade policy shift from the US in a century.” One particularly salient example was Lesotho, one of the world’s poorest countries, which now faces one of the world’s highest tariffs. The tiny African kingdom exports mostly diamonds and apparel to the US, while its economy is too small to import much in return. “African countries are being penalized for having trade surpluses, some of them achieved by pursuing export-driven development policies, as advised by the US,” said Yvonne Mhango, Africa economist for Bloomberg Economics. “One of Trump’s arguments for these tariffs is to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US. Slapping high tariffs in Africa is not going to help this narrative.” --With assistance from Andras Gergely. (Updates with comments on Mexico and eastern Europe) Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek LA Fire Victims Are Betting on a Radical Idea to Help Them Rebuild With Shake Shack in First Class, Airline Food Is No Longer a Joke China Tells Kids to Study Manufacturing to Fill Factory Jobs Trump’s IRS Cuts Are Tempting Taxpayers to Cheat Google Is Searching for an Answer to ChatGPT ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments |
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