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| Datum / Uhrzeit |
Titel |
Bewertung |
| 02.10.25 06:04:03 |
Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist hoch, dass die fünfjährigen Verluste der Cancom-Aktionäre durch sinkende Gewinne verursach |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
**Zusammenfassung**
Die Anteilsharer von Cancom SE (COK) haben einen positiven Monat erlebt mit einer Steigerung des Aktienkurses um 10 %, doch dies verbirgt eine signifikante Unterperformance der letzten fünf Jahre. Die Aktie ist um 40 % gefallen, deutlich schlechter als die Renditen, die man durch den Kauf von Indexfonds erzielen könnte.
Die letzten Woche hat zwar Zuversicht gegeben, aber die Gesamtperformance der letzten fünf Jahre bleibt schlecht. Ein wesentlicher Faktor für diesen Rückgang ist das Ergebnis pro Aktie (EPS). Über die letzten fünf Jahre ist das EPS um 0,4 % jährlich gesunken, was schneller war als der Aktienkursrückgang von 10 % pro Jahr. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass der Markt das Potenzial von Cancom zuvor überschätzt hat.
Anleger sollten den Total Shareholder Return (TSR) berücksichtigen, der Dividendenzahlungen (reinvestiert) und den Wert von Kapitalbeschaffungen berücksichtigt. Der TSR von Cancom für die letzten fünf Jahre beträgt -30 %, was höher ist als der Aktienkursrückgang. Die Dividenden haben den TSR erhöht.
Die Leistung von Cancom in diesem Jahr war besonders herausfordernd und führte zu einem Verlust von 2,7 % (einschließlich Dividenden), während der Gesamtmarkt etwa 16 % gewann. Kurzfristige Marktbewegungen können jedoch zu Unterperformance führen. Der fünfjährige Rückgang von 5 % pro Jahr ist ein besorgniserregender Trend.
Um festzustellen, ob der Aktienkurs von Cancom stabilisiert, benötigen Anleger Beweise für ein anhaltendes Wachstum. Der Text betont die Bedeutung der Prüfung historischer Wachstumsdaten und die Berücksichtigung des Anlage-Risikos. Darüber hinaus identifiziert die Analyse zwei spezifische Warnzeichen im Zusammenhang mit Cancom.
Der Artikel betont, dass die einfache Verfolgung der Aktienkursentwicklung im Laufe der Zeit nicht ausreicht. Eine umfassendere Bewertung erfordert die Berücksichtigung zahlreicher anderer Faktoren, darunter die Unternehmensstrategie, Branchentrends und makroökonomische Bedingungen.
Es ist wichtig zu beachten, dass diese Analyse auf historischen Daten und Analystenprognosen basiert, nicht auf einer Anlageempfehlung. Simply Wall St hält keine Aktien von Cancom SE. Sie geben außerdem an, dass die in der Aufschrift zitierten Marktrenditen auf deutsch-geschwängerten Gewichten der im Handel befindlichen Aktien basieren.
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| 05.09.25 11:34:04 |
Ist Cancom SE irgendwie mit nem 25% Rabatt gehandelt? |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Okay, here’s a 600-word summary of the text, followed by a German translation:
**Summary (Approximately 600 words)**
This article analyzes the intrinsic value of Cancom SE (COK), a telecommunications company, using a two-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. The core argument is that Cancom is potentially undervalued, with the DCF estimate putting the fair value at €29.80, compared to its current share price of €22.45, representing a 25% discount.
The DCF model is broken down into two key stages. The first stage, spanning the next ten years, focuses on projecting expected future free cash flows (FCF). The model relies heavily on analyst estimates, but also extrapolates from past FCF figures when analysts don’t provide forecasts. Crucially, the model assumes that growth rates will decelerate over time – a higher growth rate initially, tapering off towards a "terminal value."
The first ten-year projection yields a present value of €417 million. This is achieved using a discount rate of 7.2%, reflecting the cost of equity. Key assumptions within this stage include a projected FCF growth rate of -3.65% in the first year, decreasing to 0.18% in the final year. The model uses a 5-year average of the 1.4% German government bond yield to estimate the terminal growth rate, capped at 2.14%.
The second stage, the ‘Terminal Value,’ calculates the company's cash flow beyond the initial ten years. This value is also discounted back to today’s value, employing the same 7.2% discount rate. The terminal value is calculated as €1.0 billion, derived from a terminal growth rate of 1.4% and a discount rate of 7.2%. The present value of the terminal value comes in at €522 million.
The total intrinsic value of Cancom, combining the present value of the ten-year cash flows and the discounted terminal value, is €939 million. Dividing this by Cancom’s share count yields an estimated intrinsic value per share of approximately €29.80. This suggests the stock is currently undervalued.
However, the author emphasizes the inherent limitations of the DCF model. It depends heavily on assumptions about growth rates, the discount rate (cost of equity), and the stability of the business. The model doesn’t account for cyclical industry risks, or future capital requirements.
Key assumptions driving the model include a cost of equity of 7.2% derived from a beta of 1.383 – a measure of Cancom’s volatility relative to the market. The analysis identifies several potential weaknesses for Cancom, including declining earnings, a low dividend yield, slower revenue growth compared to the German market, and a reliance on analyst estimates.
The article concludes with a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) which highlight that the company has low debt and forecast annual earnings growth faster than the German market but faces challenges regarding earnings covered by dividends and slower revenue growth.
The author recommends using the DCF model as a tool to test assumptions, not as a definitive valuation. They direct readers to regularly updated DCF calculations on Simply Wall St and encourage further investigation, especially concerning future earnings growth, other solid businesses, and specific risks.
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**German Translation (Approximately 600 Wörter)**
**Zusammenfassung (ca. 600 Wörter)**
Dieser Artikel analysiert den intrinsischen Wert von Cancom SE (COK) unter Verwendung eines zweistufigen Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)-Modells. Der Hauptargument ist, dass Cancom potenziell unterbewertet ist, wobei die DCF-Schätzung einen fairen Wert von 29,80 € ergibt, verglichen mit dem aktuellen Aktienkurs von 22,45 €, was einen Abschlag von 25 % darstellt.
Das DCF-Modell ist in zwei Hauptphasen unterteilt. Die erste Phase, die die nächsten zehn Jahre abdeckt, konzentriert sich auf die Prognose erwarteter zukünftiger Free Cash Flows (FCF). Das Modell stützt sich stark auf Analystenschätzungen, extrapoliert aber auch aus früheren FCF-Daten, wenn Analysten keine Prognosen abgeben. Entscheidend ist, dass das Modell davon ausgeht, dass Wachstumsraten im Laufe der Zeit abnehmen werden – ein höheres Wachstum in der Anfangsphase, das sich im Laufe der Zeit zu einem „Terminalwert“ abschwächt.
Die ersten zehn Jahre prognostiziert das Modell einen gegenwärtigen Wert von 417 Millionen Euro, unter Verwendung eines Diskontierungssatzes von 7,2 %, der die Kosten der Eigenkapitalbeschaffung widerspiegelt. Wichtige Annahmen in dieser Phase sind ein prognostizierter FCF-Wachstumsrate von -3,65 % im ersten Jahr, die bis zu 0,18 % im letzten Jahr sinkt. Das Modell verwendet den durchschnittlichen 5-Jahres-Wert der 1,4 %igen deutschen Staatsanleihen, um den Terminal-Wachstumsrate zu schätzen, die auf 2,14 % begrenzt ist.
Die zweite Phase, der „Terminalwert“, berechnet den Cashflow des Unternehmens über die ersten zehn Jahre hinaus. Dieser Wert wird ebenfalls zurück auf den heutigen Tag diskontiert, wobei der gleiche Diskontierungszinssatz von 7,2 % verwendet wird. Der Terminalwert beträgt 1 Milliarde Euro und wird aus einer Terminal-Wachstumsrate von 1,4 % und einem Diskontierungssatz von 7,2 % berechnet. Der gegenwärtige Wert des Terminalwerts beträgt 522 Millionen Euro.
Der gesamte intrinsische Wert von Cancom, der die gegenwärtigen Werte der zehnjährigen Cashflows und des diskontierten Terminalwerts kombiniert, beträgt 939 Millionen Euro. Die Division dieser Zahl durch die Anzahl der ausstehenden Aktien ergibt einen geschätzten intrinsischen Wert pro Aktie von etwa 29,80 €. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Aktie derzeit unterbewertet ist.
Der Autor betont jedoch, dass das DCF-Modell inhärent begrenzt ist. Es hängt stark von Annahmen über Wachstumsraten, den Diskontierungszinssatz (Kosten des Eigenkapitals) und die Stabilität des Unternehmens ab. Das Modell berücksichtigt keine zyklischen Branchenrisiken oder zukünftige Kapitalanforderungen.
Der Artikel schließt mit einer SWOT-Analyse (Stärken, Schwächen, Chancen, Bedrohungen), die hervorhebt, dass das Unternehmen geringe Schulden hat und prognostizierte Jahresgewinne schneller als der deutsche Markt wachsen, aber Herausforderungen in Bezug auf Gewinne, die durch Dividenden gedeckt sind, und langsames Umsatzwachstum im Vergleich zum deutschen Markt hat.
Der Autor empfiehlt, das DCF-Modell als Werkzeug zur Überprüfung von Annahmen, nicht als definitive Bewertung, zu verwenden. Er weist die Leser darauf hin, regelmäßig aktualisierte DCF-Berechnungen auf Simply Wall St zu konsultieren, und ermutigt sie, insbesondere hinsichtlich zukünftiger Gewinnwachstumsraten, anderer solider Unternehmen und spezifischer Risiken, tiefer zu forschen.
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| 20.08.25 05:00:30 |
Investoren können sich über die Qualität der Zahlen von Cancom (WKN: COK) freuen. |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Here's a 400-word summary of the text, translated into German:
**Zusammenfassung: Cancom’s Wertentwicklung – Erkennen Sie Ihre Chancen**
Die jüngsten, leicht gedämpften Zahlen von Cancom SE (ETR:COK) scheinen die Anleger nicht zu beunruhigen. Der Artikel argumentiert, dass positive zugrunde liegende Faktoren möglicherweise die schwächeren Headline-Zahlen ausgleichen.
Der Fokus liegt auf dem sogenannten “Accrual Ratio”, einem wichtigen Finanzkennzahl, die misst, wie effizient ein Unternehmen Gewinne in Free Cashflow (FCF) umwandelt. Ein negativer Accrual Ratio ist positiv, da er bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen mehr FCF generiert als seine Gewinne suggerieren. Cancom wies im Zeitraum bis Juni 2025 einen Accrual Ratio von -0.18 auf, was bedeutet, dass der Free Cashflow deutlich über dem berichteten Gewinn lag (107 Mio. € vs. 19 Mio. €).
Dieses Ergebnis deutet darauf hin, dass Cancom möglicherweise ein höheres Gewinnpotenzial hat, als die veröffentlichten Zahlen widerspiegeln. Der Artikel warnt jedoch, dass eine hohe Accrual Ratio im Allgemeinen ein schlechtes Zeichen sein kann und bei der Bewertung des Unternehmens berücksichtigt werden muss.
Zudem ist ein Rückgang des Free Cashflow im letzten Jahr problematisch. Trotz des positiven Accrual Ratios sollten Anleger andere Risikofaktoren berücksichtigen, einschließlich der Investitionsthese.
Der Artikel schlägt vor, weitere Informationen zur Bewertung von Cancom zu sammeln, wie z.B. eine Analyse der Rendite auf das Eigenkapital oder die Identifizierung von Aktien mit bedeutenden Insiderbesitz.
**Wichtiger Hinweis:** Dieser Artikel ist allgemeiner Natur. Die Analyse basiert auf historischen Daten und Analystenprognosen und stellt keine Finanzberatung dar. Es handelt sich nicht um eine Empfehlung zum Kauf oder Verkauf von Aktien und berücksichtigt nicht Ihre persönlichen Ziele oder Ihre finanzielle Situation. Ziel ist es, langfristige Analysen auf Basis fundamentaler Daten zu liefern.
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**Translation Notes:**
* I've aimed for clarity and precision in the German translation, reflecting the original article's tone.
* I've preserved the key terminology (Accrual Ratio, FCF) to maintain the context.
Would you like me to adjust the translation or focus on a specific aspect? |
| 15.08.25 13:24:24 |
Weak Financial Prospects Seem bis Dragging Down Cancom SE (ETR:COK) Stock |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Here's a 400-word summary of the text, translated into German:
**Cancom: Eine Bewertung – Ist die Aktie ein guter Kauf?**
Cancom (ETR:COK) hat in den letzten drei Monaten eine deutliche Kursrückgang von 18% erlebt. Um zu beurteilen, ob dieser Trend fortgesetzt wird, untersuchten wir die schwachen Fundamentaldaten und insbesondere die Rendite auf das Eigenkapital (ROE).
Die Rendite auf das Eigenkapital (ROE) ist ein wichtiger Faktor für Aktionäre, da sie zeigt, wie effektiv das Eigenkapital reinvestiert wird und wie erfolgreich das Unternehmen Gewinne aus Investitionen generiert.
Wir haben 21 US-Aktien identifiziert, die eine Dividendenrendite von über 6% im nächsten Jahr prognostizieren. Eine vollständige Liste finden Sie kostenlos.
**Berechnung der Rendite auf das Eigenkapital:**
Die Formel lautet: Rendite auf das Eigenkapital = Nettogewinn (aus laufender Geschäftstätigkeit) / Eigenkapital.
Cancom weist eine ROE von 4,6% (basierend auf den zwölf Monaten bis März 2025) auf. Das bedeutet, dass für jeden Euro des Eigenkapitals lediglich 5 Cent Gewinn erzielt wurden.
**Warum ist ROE wichtig für das Wachstum?**
ROE misst die Rentabilität eines Unternehmens. Unternehmen mit höherer ROE und höherer Profitreservierung haben tendenziell ein höheres Wachstumspotenzial.
Cancom hat ein geringeres Wachstum als der Branchendurchschnitt von 15% erzielt. Über die letzten fünf Jahre gab es nur geringes Wachstum, was auf die niedrige ROE zurückzuführen ist.
**Bewertung der Unternehmensgewinne**
Die Basis für die Bewertung eines Unternehmens ist stark an seinem Gewinnwachstum gekoppelt. Investoren müssen beurteilen, ob der Markt das erwartete Gewinnwachstum (oder -rückgang) berücksichtigt hat.
**Effiziente Profitreservierung?**
Cancom weist einen hohen drei-Jahres-Median-Dividendenanteil von 97% auf (das Unternehmen behält nur 2,9% der Gewinne). Dies deutet auf ein miniscrales Wachstum aufgrund der hohen Dividendenzahlungen hin. Die Dividendenquote wird sich in den nächsten drei Jahren auf 67% reduzieren. Dies führt zu einer erwarteten Erhöhung der ROE auf 8,1% über diesen Zeitraum.
**Fazit**
Insgesamt ist Vorsicht geboten, wenn es um Investitionen in Cancom geht. Die niedrige ROE und die hohe Dividendenzahlung führen zu einem Mangel an Unternehmenswachstum. Trotzdem deuten Analystenprognosen auf ein zukünftiges beschleunigtes Wachstum hin. Es bleibt abzuwarten, ob der Aktienkurs auf dieser Grundlage steigt.
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| 30.07.25 07:53:55 |
Mit 52% institutionellen Eigentum, Cancom SE (ETR:COK) ist ein Favorit unter den großen Waffen |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
**Key Insights from Cancom's Stock**
**Institutional Ownership: Ein Betroffener**
* Die Top 7-Aktionäre besitzen 51 % der Cancom SE, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Institutionen einen erheblichen Einfluss auf das Unternehmen haben.
* Die Mehrheit des institutionellen Eigentums (52%) stammt von 6 großen internationalen Investoren.
* Diese Eigentumskonzentration kann zu einem "gekrampften Handel" führen, wenn der Aktienpreis schwankt und das Risiko mehrerer Parteien erhöht, die Aktien verkaufen.
** Analytische Bewertungen: Eine gemischte Tasche**
* Die Analyse zeigt, dass die Institutionen optimistisch sind über Cancom, mit den Analysten prognostiziert Dividendenrendite von über 6% für das nächste Jahr.
* Die Top 7-Aktionäre machen mehr als die Hälfte des Aktienregisters aus und geben Einblick in die Potenzialrichtung des Unternehmens.
* Insider-Eigentum gilt als positiver Faktor, da es einen gut ausgerichteten Verwaltungsrat mit anderen Aktionären angeben kann.
**Ownership Breakdown: Ein enger Blick* *
* Die Eigentümerstruktur von Cancom zeichnet sich durch eine Mischung aus institutioneller, allgemeiner Öffentlichkeit und Primepulse SE aus.
* Primepulse SE ist der größte Anteilseigner, der 15% der ausstehenden Aktien hält.
* Der zweitgrößte Anteilseigner hält 9,2% an Aktien, gefolgt von dem drittgrößten Anteilseigner mit 6,5% Eigentum.
**A Vorsichtshinweis: Institutionelles Eigentum* *
* Das Vorhandensein eines bedeutenden institutionellen Eigentums kann zu einem "gekrampften Handel" führen, wenn der Aktienpreis schwankt.
* Das Risiko, dass mehrere Parteien konkurrieren, um Aktien zu verkaufen, steigt mit institutionellem Eigentum.
* Es ist wichtig, diese Situation unter Berücksichtigung der potenziellen Folgen für Investoren genau zu überwachen.
**Insider Eigentum: Ein positiver Indikator**
* Insider-Eigentum gilt als positiver Faktor, da es einen gut ausgerichteten Verwaltungsrat mit anderen Aktionären angeben kann.
* Eine konzentrierte Macht innerhalb dieser Gruppe kann jedoch eine Sorge sein.
** Allgemein Eigentümer: A Minority Shareholder* *
* Die breite Öffentlichkeit besitzt 28% der Cancom SE und bietet einen gewissen Einfluss auf das Unternehmen.
* Diese Eigentümergröße reicht möglicherweise nicht aus, um politische Entscheidungen zu treffen.
* Die Anwesenheit einer Mehrheit des institutionellen Eigentums unterstreicht jedoch die Bedeutung, diesen Faktor bei der Investition in das Unternehmen zu berücksichtigen. |
| 28.12.23 10:06:51 |
Does Cancom SE's (ETR:COK) Weak Fundamentals Mean That The Market Could Correct Its Share Price? |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Most readers would already be aware that Cancom's (ETR:COK) stock increased significantly by 21% over the past three months. However, we decided to pay close attention to its weak financials as we are doubtful that the current momentum will keep up, given the scenario. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Cancom's ROE today.
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.
Check out our latest analysis for Cancom
How Is ROE Calculated?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cancom is:
3.7% = €27m ÷ €745m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every €1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of €0.04.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
Cancom's Earnings Growth And 3.7% ROE
When you first look at it, Cancom's ROE doesn't look that attractive. We then compared the company's ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 11%. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 3.4% seen by Cancom was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.
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That being said, we compared Cancom's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 17% in the same 5-year period. XTRA:COK Past Earnings Growth December 28th 2023
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is COK worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether COK is currently mispriced by the market.
Is Cancom Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
Cancom's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 81% (or a retention ratio of 19%). The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. To know the 3 risks we have identified for Cancom visit our risks dashboard for free.
Moreover, Cancom has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 70%. Still, forecasts suggest that Cancom's future ROE will rise to 7.2% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.
Conclusion
In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning Cancom. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. |
| 12.12.23 04:39:15 |
While shareholders of Cancom (ETR:COK) are in the red over the last three years, underlying earnings have actually grown |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Cancom SE (ETR:COK) shareholders, since the share price is down 37% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 2.9%. On the other hand the share price has bounced 5.8% over the last week.
The recent uptick of 5.8% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
Check out our latest analysis for Cancom
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Although the share price is down over three years, Cancom actually managed to grow EPS by 27% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
Revenue is actually up 4.2% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Cancom more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image). earnings-and-revenue-growth
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. You can see what analysts are predicting for Cancom in this interactivegraph of future profit estimates.
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What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Cancom's TSR for the last 3 years was -32%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Cancom shareholders are down 4.2% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 11%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 0.1% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Cancom better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Cancom has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this freelist of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. |
| 27.11.23 12:37:43 |
Should You Investigate Cancom SE (ETR:COK) At €27.44? |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
While Cancom SE (ETR:COK) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the XTRA gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s examine Cancom’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.
See our latest analysis for Cancom
What Is Cancom Worth?
Good news, investors! Cancom is still a bargain right now. According to my valuation, the intrinsic value for the stock is €45.24, which is above what the market is valuing the company at the moment. This indicates a potential opportunity to buy low. However, given that Cancom’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will Cancom generate? earnings-and-revenue-growth
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Cancom's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 96%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? Since COK is currently undervalued, it may be a great time to accumulate more of your holdings in the stock. With an optimistic outlook on the horizon, it seems like this growth has not yet been fully factored into the share price. However, there are also other factors such as capital structure to consider, which could explain the current undervaluation.
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Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on COK for a while, now might be the time to make a leap. Its prosperous future outlook isn’t fully reflected in the current share price yet, which means it’s not too late to buy COK. But before you make any investment decisions, consider other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to make a well-informed investment decision.
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that Cancom has 3 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore them.
If you are no longer interested in Cancom, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. |
| 13.11.23 11:55:41 |
An Intrinsic Calculation For Cancom SE (ETR:COK) Suggests It's 34% Undervalued |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Key Insights
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Cancom fair value estimate is €41.07 Cancom's €27.18 share price signals that it might be 34% undervalued Our fair value estimate is 30% higher than Cancom's analyst price target of €31.61
How far off is Cancom SE (ETR:COK) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Cancom
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
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10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €62.6m €82.6m €85.2m €87.3m €88.8m €90.1m €91.1m €91.9m €92.7m €93.3m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x6 Est @ 3.21% Est @ 2.39% Est @ 1.81% Est @ 1.40% Est @ 1.12% Est @ 0.92% Est @ 0.78% Est @ 0.69% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 6.1% €59.0 €73.3 €71.3 €68.8 €66.0 €63.0 €60.0 €57.1 €54.2 €51.4
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €624m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.1%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €93m× (1 + 0.5%) ÷ (6.1%– 0.5%) = €1.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €1.7b÷ ( 1 + 6.1%)10= €909m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €1.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €27.2, the company appears quite undervalued at a 34% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. dcf
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Cancom as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.136. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Cancom
Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the IT market.
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the German market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by earnings.
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Cancom, we've compiled three fundamental items you should consider:
Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Cancom you should know about. Future Earnings: How does COK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. |
| 17.10.23 12:07:54 |
Cancom SE (ETR:COK) is largely controlled by institutional shareholders who own 69% of the company |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Key Insights
Given the large stake in the stock by institutions, Cancom's stock price might be vulnerable to their trading decisions 52% of the business is held by the top 10 shareholders Analyst forecasts along with ownership data serve to give a strong idea about prospects for a business
To get a sense of who is truly in control of Cancom SE (ETR:COK), it is important to understand the ownership structure of the business. And the group that holds the biggest piece of the pie are institutions with 69% ownership. That is, the group stands to benefit the most if the stock rises (or lose the most if there is a downturn).
Since institutional have access to huge amounts of capital, their market moves tend to receive a lot of scrutiny by retail or individual investors. As a result, a sizeable amount of institutional money invested in a firm is generally viewed as a positive attribute.
Let's delve deeper into each type of owner of Cancom, beginning with the chart below.
View our latest analysis for Cancom ownership-breakdown
What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Cancom?
Many institutions measure their performance against an index that approximates the local market. So they usually pay more attention to companies that are included in major indices.
Cancom already has institutions on the share registry. Indeed, they own a respectable stake in the company. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. When multiple institutions own a stock, there's always a risk that they are in a 'crowded trade'. When such a trade goes wrong, multiple parties may compete to sell stock fast. This risk is higher in a company without a history of growth. You can see Cancom's historic earnings and revenue below, but keep in mind there's always more to the story. earnings-and-revenue-growth
Since institutional investors own more than half the issued stock, the board will likely have to pay attention to their preferences. Cancom is not owned by hedge funds. Allianz Asset Management GmbH is currently the largest shareholder, with 14% of shares outstanding. Aluk-Privatstiftung is the second largest shareholder owning 6.2% of common stock, and SEO Management AG holds about 5.2% of the company stock.
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We also observed that the top 10 shareholders account for more than half of the share register, with a few smaller shareholders to balance the interests of the larger ones to a certain extent.
Researching institutional ownership is a good way to gauge and filter a stock's expected performance. The same can be achieved by studying analyst sentiments. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily.
Insider Ownership Of Cancom
The definition of company insiders can be subjective and does vary between jurisdictions. Our data reflects individual insiders, capturing board members at the very least. Management ultimately answers to the board. However, it is not uncommon for managers to be executive board members, especially if they are a founder or the CEO.
Most consider insider ownership a positive because it can indicate the board is well aligned with other shareholders. However, on some occasions too much power is concentrated within this group.
We note our data does not show any board members holding shares, personally. Not all jurisdictions have the same rules around disclosing insider ownership, and it is possible we have missed something, here. So you can click here learn more about the CEO.
General Public Ownership
With a 19% ownership, the general public, mostly comprising of individual investors, have some degree of sway over Cancom. This size of ownership, while considerable, may not be enough to change company policy if the decision is not in sync with other large shareholders.
Private Company Ownership
We can see that Private Companies own 11%, of the shares on issue. It's hard to draw any conclusions from this fact alone, so its worth looking into who owns those private companies. Sometimes insiders or other related parties have an interest in shares in a public company through a separate private company.
Next Steps:
It's always worth thinking about the different groups who own shares in a company. But to understand Cancom better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Cancom (including 1 which is potentially serious) .
Ultimately the future is most important. You can access this freereport on analyst forecasts for the company.
NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. |
