| Nordex SE (DE000A0D6554) | |||
16,80 EURStand (close): 01.07.25 |
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| Datum / Uhrzeit | Titel | Bewertung |
| 18.04.25 08:45:07 | Nordex SE's (ETR:NDX1) Stock is Soaring But Financials Seem Inconsistent: Will The Uptrend Continue? |  |
| Nordex (ETR:NDX1) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 32% over the last three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. Specifically, we decided to study Nordex's ROE in this article. Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. How To Calculate Return On Equity? The formula for return on equity is: Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Nordex is: 0.9% = €8.8m ÷ €997m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024). The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every €1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of €0.01. View our latest analysis for Nordex What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth? So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics. Nordex's Earnings Growth And 0.9% ROE It is hard to argue that Nordex's ROE is much good in and of itself. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 14%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 7.8% seen by Nordex was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio. However, when we compared Nordex's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 19% in the same period. This is quite worrisome. Story Continues XTRA:NDX1 Past Earnings Growth April 18th 2025 The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is NDX1 worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether NDX1 is currently mispriced by the market. Is Nordex Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively? Nordex doesn't pay any regular dividends, meaning that the company is keeping all of its profits, which makes us wonder why it is retaining its earnings if it can't use them to grow its business. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating. Summary On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Nordex can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 07.03.25 04:57:37 | Nordex's (ETR:NDX1) Solid Earnings Are Supported By Other Strong Factors |  |
| Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1) just reported healthy earnings but the stock price didn't move much. Our analysis suggests that investors might be missing some promising details. See our latest analysis for Nordex XTRA:NDX1 Earnings and Revenue History March 7th 2025 A Closer Look At Nordex's Earnings Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'. That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking. For the year to December 2024, Nordex had an accrual ratio of -1.03. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of €266m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of €8.84m. Nordex's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates. The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit Nordex's profit was reduced by unusual items worth €22m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Nordex to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal. Story Continues Our Take On Nordex's Profit Performance In conclusion, both Nordex's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative. Based on these factors, we think Nordex's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or probably even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! If you want to do dive deeper into Nordex, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Nordex you should know about. Our examination of Nordex has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 06.03.25 04:16:00 | Nordex Full Year 2024 Earnings: EPS Misses Expectations | |
| Nordex (ETR:NDX1) Full Year 2024 Results Key Financial Results Revenue: €7.30b (up 13% from FY 2023). Net income: €8.84m (up from €302.8m loss in FY 2023). Profit margin: 0.1% (up from net loss in FY 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. EPS: €0.04 (up from €1.33 loss in FY 2023).XTRA:NDX1 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 6th 2025 All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period Nordex EPS Misses Expectations Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 36%. Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 5.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.9% growth forecast for the Electrical industry in Germany. Performance of the German Electrical industry. The company's shares are up 19% from a week ago. Balance Sheet Analysis While earnings are important, another area to consider is the balance sheet. We've done some analysis and you can see our take on Nordex's balance sheet. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 02.03.25 06:10:42 | Earnings Miss: Nordex SE Missed EPS By 36% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts | |
| It's been a pretty great week for Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to €13.05 in the week since its latest yearly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €7.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 36% to hit €0.04 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year. See our latest analysis for Nordex XTRA:NDX1 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 2nd 2025 Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nordex from eleven analysts is for revenues of €7.65b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 4.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 1,649% to €0.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €7.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.68 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year. The consensus price target held steady at €17.39, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nordex, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €20.60 and the most bearish at €14.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view. These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nordex's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nordex's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nordex. Story Continues The Bottom Line The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nordex's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €17.39, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets. Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nordex going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here. Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 01.03.25 07:02:20 | Acciona SA (ACXIF) (Q4 2024) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges and Capitalizing ... | |
| Revenue: EUR3 billion, a decline of 14% due to lower power prices. EBITDA: Total EBITDA fell by 13% to EUR1,123 million; EBITDA from operations at EUR1.05 billion. Net Profit: EUR357 million, down 32% from the previous year. Net Debt: EUR4.1 billion, with a target to reduce to EUR3.5 billion by year-end. Infrastructure Backlog: EUR54 billion, an all-time high. New Capacity Additions: 2 gigawatts added in 2024, including 923 megawatts at McIntyre wind farm in Australia. Asset Rotation Proceeds: EUR1.3 billion achieved, with a target of EUR3 billion for 2024 and 2025. Investment Grade Rating: Maintained BBB-minus rating with a stable outlook from Fitch. Generation Revenues: EUR1.6 billion, down 12% due to a 20% decline in average captured price. Consolidated Production: Increased by 11% to 23.8 terawatt hours. CapEx: EUR1.5 billion expected for 2025, with a focus on reducing work in progress. Asset Rotation EBITDA: EUR73 million from asset rotation activities. Hydro Asset Disposal: EUR425 million secured from recent hydro asset sales. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 8 Warning Signs with ACXIF. Release Date: February 28, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Positive Points Acciona SA (ACXIF) achieved a record revenue of EUR2.5 billion in 2024, with significant contributions from the infrastructure segment and Nordex. The company's infrastructure backlog reached an all-time high of EUR54 billion, driven by landmark concession awards. ACCIONA Energia added 2 gigawatts of capacity in 2024, surpassing its target and marking a peak in its growth cycle. Nordex showed a remarkable recovery with a 20% growth in its order book and improved profit margins. The company maintained its investment-grade credit rating and avoided tax overruns or write-offs despite challenging market conditions. Negative Points ACCIONA Energia faced challenges in the Spanish market, leading to a revision of its EBITDA expectations. The average captured price for electricity declined by 20%, impacting generation revenues. The company experienced a 32% decline in net profit, amounting to EUR357 million. There were three fatalities among subcontractors' employees, highlighting safety concerns. The US market presents volatility risks due to political changes and rhetoric against renewables. Q & A Highlights Q: What is Acciona's strategy regarding minority buyouts and equity swaps given the low trading levels of ACCIONA Energia? A: Jose Manuel Entrecanales Domecq, Executive Chairman and CEO, stated that despite the disappointing price levels, Acciona sees a solid future and will keep most options open. The company considers buying its own stock as an opportunity due to its undervaluation. However, there are no significant plans to change the current status in the short run. Story Continues Q: What is the business outlook for ACCIONA Energia in the US market, particularly regarding risks on the incentive and procurement sides? A: Rafael Alcala, CEO of Corporacion Acciona Energias Renovables SA, mentioned that the US market represents 15-20% of their activity. Despite current rhetoric, demand is growing, and renewables remain the most viable option. The company has secured tax credits and negotiated with suppliers to mitigate risks, seeing no special risks at present. Q: Why does Acciona continue to invest in markets like India and Southeast Asia instead of focusing on stronger geographies? A: Jose Manuel Entrecanales Domecq explained that Acciona has a strong presence and success in these regions. The company aims to be selective in investments, considering regulatory stability and market potential. The strategy includes balancing the portfolio by reducing activity in saturated markets and focusing on high-demand regions with low renewables penetration. Q: Can you provide details on the asset rotation strategy and its impact on EBITDA? A: Jose Entrecanales Carrion, Chief Financial and Sustainability Officer, stated that while specific transaction details are limited, the company expects to announce some deals in the first half of the year, with most proceeds back-ended. The impact on EBITDA will depend on timing and structure, with a rule of thumb being EUR1 million invested generally following industry standards. Q: What are the main markets for adding 1.2 to 1.5 gigawatts of new capacity annually? A: Jose Manuel Entrecanales Domecq highlighted several markets, including Australia, the US, Canada, Latin America, Europe, India, South Africa, and Southeast Asia. These regions offer significant potential due to their low renewables penetration and Acciona's established presence. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. View Comments |
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| 28.02.25 07:09:08 | Nordex SE (NRDXF) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Order Book and Improved Margins Amid ... | |
| Revenue: EUR7.3 billion in 2024, up from EUR6.5 billion in 2023, an increase of over 12%. EBITDA Margin: 4.1% for 2024, with an exit EBITDA margin of 4.89% in Q4. Net Profit: EUR9 million for 2024. Free Cash Flow: EUR271 million in 2024. Order Book: Record high of EUR12.8 billion, with turbine order book at EUR7.8 billion and service order book at nearly EUR5 billion. Service Revenue: Grew by 15% to EUR777 million in 2024. Gross Margin: 21% for full year 2024, up from 15.2% in the previous year. Cash Position: Over EUR1.1 billion at year-end 2024. Working Capital Ratio: Minus 9.1%, in absolute numbers at minus EUR663 million. CapEx Spending: EUR153 million for 2024. Order Intake: 8.3 gigawatts in 2024, a growth of 12% year on year. Installation Figures: 6.5 gigawatts installed in 2024, down by around 8% from the previous year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Signs with NRDXF. Release Date: February 27, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Positive Points Nordex SE (NRDXF) achieved a record order intake in 2024, resulting in a high order book of EUR12.8 billion. The company reported a robust free cash flow of EUR271 million for 2024. Nordex SE (NRDXF) improved its EBITDA margin to 4.89% by the end of 2024. The service business continues to grow, with revenues increasing by 15% and EBIT margins improving. Nordex SE (NRDXF) remains the third largest onshore player worldwide in terms of order intake, excluding China. Negative Points Installations decreased by 8% in 2024, primarily due to customer schedule delays. Turbine assembly decreased by 5% in 2024, indicating potential production challenges. The company faces uncertainties in the US market, which could impact future growth. Despite improvements, the EBITDA margin of 4.1% is still below the medium-term target of 8%. There are ongoing provisions and warranty issues that may impact financials in the coming years. Q & A Highlights Q: What regions outside of Germany should we focus on for order intake growth? A: Jose Blanco Dieguez, CEO, mentioned that while Germany is expected to grow significantly, there is also anticipated growth in other European markets such as the Baltics, Turkey, Spain, and the Mediterranean. Outside Europe, Canada and Australia are key focus areas, with ambitions to develop the US market further. Q: How sustainable is the growth in service orders seen in Q3 and Q4? A: Jose Blanco Dieguez, CEO, expressed optimism for another strong year in service order intake, potentially better than the previous year, although they do not provide specific guidance for order intake. Story Continues Q: What are the implications of the clean industrial deal announced recently? A: Jose Blanco Dieguez, CEO, highlighted that the deal supports homemade energy production, emphasizing renewables and electrification. It includes financial instruments to support faster electrification and initiatives to improve permitting processes, which are positive for Nordex's business and industry. Q: Can you provide insights into the expected order intake and its impact on ASPs and visibility into 2027? A: Jose Blanco Dieguez, CEO, stated that while they do not guide order intake, they expect to improve on the 8.3 gigawatts achieved last year. ASPs are stable, and the German market's growth should provide visibility into 2027, with expected order intake translating into deliveries in 2026 and 2027. Q: What are the key factors driving the EBITDA margin guidance of 5% to 7% for 2025? A: Jose Blanco Dieguez, CEO, and Ilya Hartmann, CFO, explained that the absence of legacy projects and a decrease in provisions will contribute to margin improvements. The biggest uncertainty is order intake and its impact on revenue and margins, but they expect stable execution. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. View Comments |
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| 24.02.25 06:17:55 | Nordex (ETR:NDX1) shareholders are up 3.8% this past week, but still in the red over the last three years | |
| In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1) shareholders, since the share price is down 26% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 14%. Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline. Check out our latest analysis for Nordex Given that Nordex only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue. Over three years, Nordex grew revenue at 12% per year. That's a pretty good rate of top-line growth. Shareholders have seen the share price fall at 8% per year, for three years. This implies the market had higher expectations of Nordex. With revenue growing at a solid clip, now might be the time to focus on the possibility that it will have a brighter future. The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).XTRA:NDX1 Earnings and Revenue Growth February 24th 2025 We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So we recommend checking out this freereport showing consensus forecasts What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)? We've already covered Nordex's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. We note that Nordex's TSR, at -21% is higher than its share price return of -26%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising. Story Continues A Different Perspective We're pleased to report that Nordex shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 23% over one year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 5%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. You could get a better understanding of Nordex's growth by checking out this more detailed historical graph of earnings, revenue and cash flow. If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this freelist of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation). Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 05.02.25 12:37:23 | At €10.93, Is It Time To Put Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1) On Your Watch List? | |
| Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the XTRA over the last few months, increasing to €14.02 at one point, and dropping to the lows of €10.81. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Nordex's current trading price of €10.93 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Nordex’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change. See our latest analysis for Nordex What's The Opportunity In Nordex? Good news, investors! Nordex is still a bargain right now. Our valuation model shows that the intrinsic value for the stock is €15.06, but it is currently trading at €10.93 on the share market, meaning that there is still an opportunity to buy now. What’s more interesting is that, Nordex’s share price is quite volatile, which gives us more chances to buy since the share price could sink lower (or rise higher) in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market. What does the future of Nordex look like?XTRA:NDX1 Earnings and Revenue Growth February 5th 2025 Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Nordex's earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value. What This Means For You Are you a shareholder? Since NDX1 is currently undervalued, it may be a great time to increase your holdings in the stock. With a positive outlook on the horizon, it seems like this growth has not yet been fully factored into the share price. However, there are also other factors such as capital structure to consider, which could explain the current undervaluation. Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on NDX1 for a while, now might be the time to make a leap. Its buoyant future outlook isn’t fully reflected in the current share price yet, which means it’s not too late to buy NDX1. But before you make any investment decisions, consider other factors such as the track record of its management team, in order to make a well-informed investment decision. Story Continues It can be quite valuable to consider what analysts expect for Nordex from their most recent forecasts. At Simply Wall St, we have the analysts estimates which you can view by clicking here. If you are no longer interested in Nordex, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 20.01.25 06:13:55 | Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1) | |
| Key Insights Nordex's estimated fair value is €12.10 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With €12.13 share price, Nordex appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value The €17.73 analyst price target for NDX1 is 47% more than our estimate of fair value Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. See our latest analysis for Nordex Step By Step Through The Calculation We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €130.0m €217.9m €187.0m €169.1m €158.3m €151.7m €147.7m €145.4m €144.2m €143.8m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x5 Analyst x1 Est @ -9.55% Est @ -6.40% Est @ -4.19% Est @ -2.65% Est @ -1.56% Est @ -0.81% Est @ -0.28% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 5.9% €123 €194 €158 €135 €119 €108 €99.0 €92.0 €86.2 €81.2 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €1.2b The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.9%. Story Continues Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €144m× (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (5.9%– 1.0%) = €3.0b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €3.0b÷ ( 1 + 5.9%)10= €1.7b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €2.9b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €12.1, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.XTRA:NDX1 Discounted Cash Flow January 20th 2025 Important Assumptions Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Nordex as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.194. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. SWOT Analysis for Nordex Strength Debt is well covered by cash flow. Weakness Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the German market. Threat Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the German market. Next Steps: Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Nordex, we've compiled three relevant aspects you should further examine: Financial Health: Does NDX1 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Future Earnings: How does NDX1's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View Comments |
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| 16.09.24 09:31:53 | The five-year returns have been favorable for Nordex (ETR:NDX1) shareholders despite underlying losses increasing | |
| When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1) share price is up 48% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 0.7% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 28% in the last year. After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals. View our latest analysis for Nordex Nordex isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings. For the last half decade, Nordex can boast revenue growth at a rate of 15% per year. That's well above most pre-profit companies. While the compound gain of 8% per year is good, it's not unreasonable given the strong revenue growth. If the strong revenue growth continues, we'd hope to see the share price to follow, in time. Opportunity lies where the market hasn't fully priced growth in the underlying business. You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image). earnings-and-revenue-growth We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So we recommend checking out this freereport showing consensus forecasts What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)? We've already covered Nordex's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. We note that Nordex's TSR, at 69% is higher than its share price return of 48%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising. Story continues A Different Perspective It's nice to see that Nordex shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 28% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 11% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. You might want to assess this data-rich visualization of its earnings, revenue and cash flow. Of course Nordex may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this freecollection of growth stocks. Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. View comments |
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