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| Datum / Uhrzeit |
Titel |
Bewertung |
| 22.09.25 04:55:44 |
Solltest du in SMA Solar Technology AG investieren bei 21,64 Euro? |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
**Zusammenfassung (ca. 500 Wörter)**
Dieser Artikel von Simply Wall St analysiert SMA Solar Technology AG (S92), ein deutsches Solar-Technologieunternehmen, und bewertet seine aktuelle Bewertung sowie sein Wachstumspotenzial. Obwohl es in den letzten Wochen einen erheblichen Preissprung gab – was es zu einem “XTRA Gainer” gemacht hat – wird der Aktienkurs derzeit als überbewertet angesehen, mit etwa 30 % gegenüber seinem geschätzten intrinsischen Wert von 16,63 €.
Die Analyse hebt die Volatilität von SMA Solar Technology hervor, die durch ein hohes Beta angezeigt wird, das darauf hindeutet, dass Preisbewegungen relativ zum Gesamtmarkt verstärkt werden. Diese Volatilität stellt eine Gelegenheit für Investoren dar, die glauben, dass der Aktienkurs weiter sinken wird, wodurch eine potenzielle Rückkaufung zu einem niedrigeren Preis möglich ist.
Ausblickweise wird dem Unternehmen ein erhebliches Wachstum prognostiziert, mit erwarteten Gewinnsteigerungen von 77 % innerhalb des nächsten Jahres. Diese positive Sichtweise wird durch erwartete höhere Cashflows angetrieben, die zu einer gesteigerten Aktienbewertung beitragen sollten. Der Artikel betont die Bedeutung einer Berücksichtigung des Wachstumspotenzials im Zusammenhang mit dem Wert bei der Bewertung einer Investition.
Für aktuelle Aktionäre hat der jüngste Preissprung diese Wachstumserwartungen bereits berücksichtigt. Die Frage ist dann: Sollten sie verkaufen, da der Aktienkurs über seinem fairen Wert liegt? Wenn ein Investor glaubt, dass der Aktienkurs auf seinen intrinsischen Wert zurückfallen wird, könnte ein strategischer Verkauf, gefolgt von einem Kauf bei niedrigerem Preis, profitabel sein.
Für potenzielle Investoren deutet die aktuelle Überbewertung darauf hin, dass es möglicherweise nicht die ideale Zeit ist, in die Aktie einzusteigen. Die starken Wachstumsaussichten sind jedoch immer noch ein überzeugendes Argument für eine eingehendere Prüfung.
Ebenso betont der Artikel die Bedeutung der Risikobewertung. SMA Solar Technology weist ein Warnzeichen auf, das von Simply Wall St identifiziert wurde – was die Notwendigkeit unterstreicht, potenzielle Risiken im Zusammenhang mit dem Unternehmen zu verstehen.
Der Artikel schließt mit einer Haftungsaussage: Die Analyse basiert auf historischen Daten und Analystenprognosen und stellt keine Finanzberatung dar und berücksichtigt nicht die individuellen Umstände des Investors oder die neuesten, potenziell preisempfindlichen Unternehmensankündigungen. Simply Wall St hält sich an keiner der diskutierten Aktien.
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| 31.08.25 06:32:12 |
Ist SMA Solar Technology AG nach seiner Eigenbewertung wirklich einen Wert von 22,7 Euro? |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Okay, here’s a 600-word summary and translation of the Simply Wall St article, broken down as requested:
**Summary (approx. 600 words)**
This article analyzes SMA Solar Technology (S92) using a 2-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to estimate its intrinsic value. The core finding is that the stock appears potentially overvalued at its current price of €22.66, with the DCF model suggesting a fair value of €16.92.
The analysis employs a two-stage growth model: a higher growth rate in the initial 10 years, followed by a lower growth phase. Key inputs include a 10-year Free Cash Flow (FCF) estimate, a terminal value calculated using the Gordon Growth Model (assuming a 1.4% perpetual growth rate), and an 8.5% cost of equity (derived from a levered beta of 1.689).
The DCF calculation arrives at an equity value of €587 million. Dividing this by the number of shares outstanding results in a fair value of €16.92 per share. This contrasts sharply with the current market price.
Several important assumptions underpin the model. The discount rate (8.5%) is based on the company’s levered beta, reflecting its volatility relative to the market. The DCF inherently does not account for cyclical industry patterns or future capital expenditure needs.
The article emphasizes that DCF models are just one valuation tool and that they rely on assumptions. It stresses the importance of regularly updating the model and exploring alternative scenarios. A small change in key inputs (growth rates, discount rate) can drastically alter the valuation.
The calculation reveals a significant discrepancy: the DCF suggests the stock is overvalued.
Furthermore, the article highlights three additional factors to consider regarding SMA Solar Technology:
1. **Risks:** The article mentions a single warning sign related to the company.
2. **Future Earnings:** Investors should assess the company’s growth rate compared to its peers and the overall market.
3. **Other Solid Businesses:** Investors are encouraged to explore stocks with similar characteristics – low debt, high returns on equity, and strong historical performance.
Simply Wall St’s DCF calculation is updated daily for all German stocks, offering a dynamic assessment. The article encourages users to experiment with different inputs to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the stock’s potential.
**German Translation (approx. 600 words)**
**Zusammenfassung**
Dieser Artikel analysiert SMA Solar Technology (S92) unter Verwendung eines 2-Stufen-Discounted-Cash-Flow- (DCF)-Modells, um seinen intrinsischen Wert zu schätzen. Das Hauptresultat ist, dass der Aktienkurs derzeit von 22,66 € überbewertet erscheint, wobei das DCF-Modell einen fairen Wert von 16,92 € anzeigt.
Die Analyse verwendet ein zweistufiges Wachstumsmodell: ein höheres Wachstum in den ersten 10 Jahren, gefolgt von einer niedrigeren Wachstumsphase. Wichtige Eingaben umfassen eine 10-jährige Free Cash Flow (FCF)-Schätzung, einen Terminalwert, der mit dem Gordon-Wachstumsmodell berechnet wird (unter der Annahme einer konstanten Wachstumsrate von 1,4 %), und eine Kostenquote von 8,5 % (basierend auf einem levered Beta von 1,689).
Die DCF-Berechnung ergibt einen Eigenkapitalwert von 587 Millionen €. Die Division dieser Summe durch die Anzahl der ausgegebenen Aktien ergibt einen fairen Wert von 16,92 € pro Aktie. Dies steht in starkem Kontrast zum aktuellen Marktpreis.
Mehrere wichtige Annahmen bilden das Fundament des Modells. Die Diskontierungsquote (8,5 %) basiert auf dem Beta des Unternehmens, das seine Volatilität im Verhältnis zum Markt widerspiegelt. Die DCF berücksichtigt inhärent keine zyklischen Branchenmuster oder zukünftige Kapitalaufwendungen.
Der Artikel betont, dass DCF-Modelle nur ein Instrument zur Bewertung sind und dass sie auf Annahmen beruhen. Er betont die Bedeutung der regelmäßigen Aktualisierung des Modells und der Erforschung alternativer Szenarien. Eine kleine Änderung der Schlüsselparameter (Wachstumsraten, Diskontierungsquote) kann die Bewertung grundlegend verändern.
Darüber hinaus werden drei zusätzliche Faktoren hervorgehoben, die bei der Bewertung von SMA Solar Technology zu berücksichtigen sind:
1. **Risiken:** Der Artikel erwähnt ein einzelnes Warnsignal im Zusammenhang mit dem Unternehmen.
2. **Zukünftige Erträge:** Anleger sollten das Wachstum des Unternehmens im Vergleich zu seinen Wettbewerbern und dem Gesamtmarkt bewerten.
3. **Andere solide Unternehmen:** Es wird empfohlen, Aktien mit ähnlichen Eigenschaften zu prüfen – geringe Verschuldung, hohe Eigenkapitalrendite und eine solide historische Performance.
Die Berechnungen unterstreichen die Bedeutung einer kritischen Auseinandersetzung mit den Annahmen und der potenziellen Sensitivität der Ergebnisse.
**German Translation of Key Phrases:**
* Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Discounted Cash Flow
* Free Cash Flow (FCF): Free Cash Flow
* Cost of Equity: Kostenquote
* Levered Beta: levered Beta
* Terminal Value: Terminalwert
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Would you like me to adjust the length or focus of any specific section of the summary or translation? |
| 10.08.25 07:19:16 |
SMA Solar Technology Zweites Quartal 2025 Ergebnis: €1.38 Verlust pro Aktie (vs €0.45 Gewinn in 2Q 2024) |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
**SMA Solar Technology (ETR:S92) Ergebnisse für das zweite Quartal 2025**
**Wesentliche Finanzdaten**
Umsatz: 357,1 Mio. € (um 10 % gegenüber dem 2. Quartal 2024 gesunken). Nettoverlust: 47,9 Mio. € (um 406 % gegenüber dem Gewinn von 15,6 Mio. € im 2. Quartal 2024). 1,38 Verlust je Aktie (im Vergleich zu 0,45 Gewinn im 2. Quartal 2024).
**SMA Solar Technology Gewinn Insights**
Mit Blick nach vorn wird erwartet, dass der Umsatz im Durchschnitt um 2,3 % p.a. in den nächsten 3 Jahren wächst, verglichen mit einer Wachstumsrate von 8,7 % für die deutsche Halbleiterindustrie.
**Risikoanalyse**
Seien Sie sich bewusst, dass SMA Solar zwei Warnsignale in unserer Anlageanalyse zeigt, die Sie kennen sollten…
Haben Sie Feedback zu diesem Artikel? Besorgt über den Inhalt? Kontaktieren Sie uns direkt. Alternativ können Sie uns eine E-Mail an editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com senden.
Dieser Artikel von Simply Wall St ist von Natur aus allgemeiner Art. Wir bieten Kommentare auf der Grundlage historischer Daten und Analystenprognosen unter Verwendung einer unvoreingenommenen Methodik. Die Artikel sind nicht dazu gedacht, Finanzberatung zu geben. Dies stellt keine Empfehlung zum Kauf oder Verkauf von Aktien dar und berücksichtigt nicht Ihre Ziele oder Ihre finanzielle Situation. Ziel ist es, Ihnen eine langfristig ausgerichtete Analyse auf Basis von Grunddaten zu bieten. Unsere Analyse berücksichtigt möglicherweise nicht die neuesten preisempfindlichen Unternehmensankündigungen oder qualitative Informationen. Simply Wall St hält keine Position in den genannten Aktien. |
| 05.08.25 13:12:19 |
SMA Solar Technology (ETR:S92 Investor Dreijahresverluste wachsen auf 63%, da die Aktien in der vergangenen Woche 59 Mio |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
SMA entdecken Solar Technology Fair Values aus der Gemeinschaft und wählen Sie Ihre
Die Aktionäre der SMA Solar Technology AG (ETR:S92) sollten den Aktienkurs im letzten Quartal um 18% erhöhen. Aber das ist ein kleiner Ausgleich für die über drei Jahre hinausgehende Rückkehr. In dieser Zeit sank der Aktienkurs um 64 %. So ist es wirklich gut, eine Verbesserung zu sehen. Während viele nervös bleiben, könnte es weitere Gewinne geben, wenn das Unternehmen seinen besten Fuß nach vorne legen kann.
Nach dem Verlust von 8.1% in der vergangenen Woche lohnt es sich, die Grundlagen des Unternehmens zu untersuchen, um zu sehen, was wir von der vergangenen Leistung ableiten können.
Wir haben 21 US-Bestände gefunden, die prognostiziert werden, eine Dividendenrendite von über 6% im nächsten Jahr zu zahlen. Sehen Sie die vollständige Liste kostenlos.
Da SMA Solar Technology hat in den letzten zwölf Monaten keinen Gewinn erzielt, wir konzentrieren uns auf das Umsatzwachstum, um einen schnellen Blick auf seine Geschäftsentwicklung zu bilden. Aktionäre von unprofitablen Unternehmen wünschen in der Regel ein starkes Umsatzwachstum. Einige Unternehmen sind bereit, die Rentabilität zu verzögern, um den Umsatz schneller zu steigern, aber in diesem Fall würde man hoffen, dass ein gutes Top-Line-Wachstum für den Mangel an Ergebnis.
Über drei Jahre, SMA Solar Technology erzielte einen Umsatz von 20% pro Jahr. Das liegt weit über den meisten anderen Unternehmen. Der Aktienpreis hat sich in ganz der entgegengesetzten Richtung bewegt, um 18% gegenüber dieser Zeit, ein schlechtes Ergebnis. Es scheint wahrscheinlich, dass der Markt um die ständigen Verluste besorgt ist. Aber ein Aktienkursabfall dieser Größenordnung könnte gut signalisieren, dass der Markt übermäßig negativ auf dem Bestand ist.
Sie können unten sehen, wie sich Ergebnis und Umsatz im Laufe der Zeit geändert haben (entdecken Sie die genauen Werte durch Klicken auf das Bild). XTRA:S92 Ergebnis- und Umsatzwachstum 5. August 2025
Sehen Sie sich die finanzielle Gesundheit von SMA Solar Technology mit diesem kostenlosen Bericht über die Bilanz genauer an.
Eine andere Perspektive
SMA Die Anteilseigner der Solartechnologie sind für das Jahr um 19% zurückgegangen (auch Dividenden inbegriffen), aber der Markt selbst ist um 27% gestiegen. Selbst die Aktienpreise guter Aktien fallen manchmal, aber wir wollen Verbesserungen in den grundlegenden Metriken eines Unternehmens sehen, bevor wir zu interessiert. Leider kann die Leistung des letzten Jahres ungelöste Herausforderungen andeuten, da sie im letzten Jahrzehnt schlechter war als der jährliche Verlust von 5%. Wir wissen, dass Baron Rothschild gesagt hat, Investoren sollten "buy wenn es Blut auf den Straßen gibt", aber wir warnen, dass Investoren zuerst sicher sein sollten, dass sie ein hochwertiges Geschäft kaufen. Ich finde es sehr interessant, den Aktienpreis langfristig als Proxy für die Geschäftsentwicklung zu betrachten. Aber um wirklich Einblick zu gewinnen, müssen wir auch andere Informationen berücksichtigen. Zum Beispiel haben wir 2 Warnzeichen für SMA Solar Technology entdeckt, die Sie wissen sollten, bevor Sie hier investieren.
Geschichte geht weiter
Wenn Sie es vorziehen, ein anderes Unternehmen zu überprüfen -- eins mit potenziell überlegenen Finanzen -- dann verpassen Sie nicht diese Freelist von Unternehmen, die nachgewiesen haben, dass sie Einkommen wachsen können.
Bitte beachten Sie, dass die in diesem Artikel zitierten Marktrendite die gewogenen durchschnittlichen Renditen von Aktien widerspiegeln, die derzeit an deutschen Börsen gehandelt haben.
Haben Sie Feedback zu diesem Artikel? Über den Inhalt? Kontaktieren Sie uns direkt. Alternativ, E-Mail Editorial-team (at) einfachwallst.com.
Dieser Artikel von Simply Wall St ist allgemein in der Natur. Wir liefern Kommentare basierend auf historischen Daten und Analystenprognosen nur unter Verwendung einer unvoreingenommenen Methodik und unsere Artikel sind nicht als Finanzberatung gedacht. Es stellt keine Empfehlung dar, Aktien zu kaufen oder zu verkaufen, und berücksichtigt nicht Ihre Ziele oder Ihre finanzielle Situation. Wir wollen Ihnen langfristig fokussierte Analyse durch grundlegende Daten bringen. Beachten Sie, dass unsere Analyse möglicherweise nicht in den neuesten preisempfindlichen Unternehmensankündigungen oder qualitativen Material ausschlaggebend ist. Einfach Wand St hat keine Position in den genannten Beständen.
Kommentare anzeigen |
| 30.03.25 06:31:42 |
€18.00 - That's What Analysts Think SMA Solar Technology AG (ETR:S92) Is Worth After These Results |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
It's been a mediocre week for SMA Solar Technology AG (ETR:S92) shareholders, with the stock dropping 16% to €17.70 in the week since its latest yearly results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 39% to€3.39 per share. Revenues of €1.5b did beat expectations by 3.4%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.XTRA:S92 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 30th 2025
Taking into account the latest results, SMA Solar Technology's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €1.53b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with SMA Solar Technology forecast to report a statutory profit of €1.36 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.36 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for SMA Solar Technology
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 9.8% to €18.00. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SMA Solar Technology at €22.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €15.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the SMA Solar Technology's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that SMA Solar Technology's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that SMA Solar Technology is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
Story Continues
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on SMA Solar Technology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for SMA Solar Technology going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for SMA Solar Technology you should know about.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 29.03.25 06:27:33 |
SMA Solar Technology Full Year 2024 Earnings: Revenues Beat Expectations, EPS Lags |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
SMA Solar Technology (ETR:S92) Full Year 2024 Results
Key Financial Results
Revenue: €1.53b (down 20% from FY 2023). Net loss: €117.7m (down by 152% from €225.7m profit in FY 2023). €3.39 loss per share (down from €6.50 profit in FY 2023).
Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.XTRA:S92 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 29th 2025
All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period
SMA Solar Technology Revenues Beat Expectations, EPS Falls Short
Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 39%.
Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Semiconductor industry in Germany.
Performance of the German Semiconductor industry.
The company's shares are down 16% from a week ago.
Risk Analysis
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for SMA Solar Technology (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 14.03.25 04:27:09 |
SMA Solar Technology AG (ETR:S92) Shares Could Be 25% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Key Insights
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, SMA Solar Technology fair value estimate is €27.89 SMA Solar Technology is estimated to be 25% undervalued based on current share price of €20.84 Our fair value estimate is 55% higher than SMA Solar Technology's analyst price target of €18.00
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of SMA Solar Technology AG (ETR:S92) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for SMA Solar Technology
Crunching The Numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €115.3m €91.4m €78.0m €70.3m €65.7m €62.9m €61.2m €60.2m €59.8m €59.7m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x3 Est @ -14.59% Est @ -9.89% Est @ -6.59% Est @ -4.29% Est @ -2.68% Est @ -1.55% Est @ -0.75% Est @ -0.20% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6% €107 €79.0 €62.7 €52.5 €45.6 €40.6 €36.7 €33.6 €31.0 €28.8
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €518m
Story Continues
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €60m× (1 + 1.1%) ÷ (7.6%– 1.1%) = €932m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €932m÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)10= €450m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €968m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €20.8, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 25% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.XTRA:S92 Discounted Cash Flow March 14th 2025
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at SMA Solar Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.494. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for SMA Solar Technology
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Semiconductor market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the German market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the German market.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For SMA Solar Technology, there are three fundamental items you should further research:
Risks: As an example, we've found 4 warning signs for SMA Solar Technology (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to consider before investing here. Future Earnings: How does S92's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 26.02.25 11:57:01 |
Investors one-year losses continue as SMA Solar Technology (ETR:S92) dips a further 11% this week, earnings continue to decline |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the SMA Solar Technology AG (ETR:S92) share price has gained 11% in the last three months. But that hardly compensates for the shocking decline over the last twelve months. During that time the share price has plummeted like a stone, down 71%. It's not uncommon to see a bounce after a drop like that. The real question is whether the company can turn around its fortunes.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for SMA Solar Technology isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
See our latest analysis for SMA Solar Technology
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Unfortunately SMA Solar Technology reported an EPS drop of 64% for the last year. This proportional reduction in earnings per share isn't far from the 71% decrease in the share price. Given the lower EPS we might have expected investors to lose confidence in the stock, but that doesn't seemed to have happened. Instead, the change in the share price seems to reduction in earnings per share, alone.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).XTRA:S92 Earnings Per Share Growth February 26th 2025
It is of course excellent to see how SMA Solar Technology has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling SMA Solar Technology stock, you should check out this FREEdetailed report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 18% in the last year, SMA Solar Technology shareholders lost 70% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with SMA Solar Technology (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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For those who like to find winning investments this freelist of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 31.12.24 11:57:11 |
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At SMA Solar Technology (ETR:S92) |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. In a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Speaking of which, we noticed some great changes in SMA Solar Technology's (ETR:S92) returns on capital, so let's have a look.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for SMA Solar Technology, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.12 = €120m ÷ (€1.7b - €706m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).
So, SMA Solar Technology has an ROCE of 12%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 13% generated by the Semiconductor industry.
View our latest analysis for SMA Solar Technology XTRA:S92 Return on Capital Employed December 31st 2024
Above you can see how the current ROCE for SMA Solar Technology compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our freeanalyst report for SMA Solar Technology .
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
The fact that SMA Solar Technology is now generating some pre-tax profits from its prior investments is very encouraging. About five years ago the company was generating losses but things have turned around because it's now earning 12% on its capital. And unsurprisingly, like most companies trying to break into the black, SMA Solar Technology is utilizing 46% more capital than it was five years ago. We like this trend, because it tells us the company has profitable reinvestment opportunities available to it, and if it continues going forward that can lead to a multi-bagger performance.
On a side note, SMA Solar Technology's current liabilities are still rather high at 42% of total assets. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.
What We Can Learn From SMA Solar Technology's ROCE
Overall, SMA Solar Technology gets a big tick from us thanks in most part to the fact that it is now profitable and is reinvesting in its business. Astute investors may have an opportunity here because the stock has declined 61% in the last five years. So researching this company further and determining whether or not these trends will continue seems justified.
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On a final note, we found 4 warning signs for SMA Solar Technology (1 is significant) you should be aware of.
While SMA Solar Technology may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this freelist here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 05.12.24 06:06:56 |
What Does SMA Solar Technology AG's (ETR:S92) Share Price Indicate? |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
SMA Solar Technology AG (ETR:S92), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a decent share price growth of 17% on the XTRA over the last few months. Shareholders may appreciate the recent price jump, but the company still has a way to go before reaching its yearly highs again. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s take a look at SMA Solar Technology’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.
View our latest analysis for SMA Solar Technology
What Is SMA Solar Technology Worth?
Good news, investors! SMA Solar Technology is still a bargain right now according to our price multiple model, which compares the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. In this instance, we’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. we find that SMA Solar Technology’s ratio of 5.81x is below its peer average of 13.2x, which indicates the stock is trading at a lower price compared to the Semiconductor industry. What’s more interesting is that, SMA Solar Technology’s share price is quite volatile, which gives us more chances to buy since the share price could sink lower (or rise higher) in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of SMA Solar Technology look like?XTRA:S92 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 5th 2024
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of SMA Solar Technology, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? Although S92 is currently trading below the industry PE ratio, the negative profit outlook does bring on some uncertainty, which equates to higher risk. We recommend you think about whether you want to increase your portfolio exposure to S92, or whether diversifying into another stock may be a better move for your total risk and return.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on S92 for some time, but hesitant on making the leap, we recommend you research further into the stock. Given its current price multiple, now is a great time to make a decision. But keep in mind the risks that come with negative growth prospects in the future.
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With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. To help with this, we've discovered 4 warning signs (1 is a bit concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in SMA Solar Technology.
If you are no longer interested in SMA Solar Technology, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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