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Bewertung |
| 07.08.25 04:16:22 |
With A 1.1% Return On Equity, Is Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) A Quality Stock? |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Explore Vonovia's Fair Values from the Community and select yours
Many investors are still learning about the various metrics that can be useful when analysing a stock. This article is for those who would like to learn about Return On Equity (ROE). To keep the lesson grounded in practicality, we'll use ROE to better understand Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA).
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ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.
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How Is ROE Calculated?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Vonovia is:
1.1% = €314m ÷ €28b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every €1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of €0.01.
Check out our latest analysis for Vonovia
Does Vonovia Have A Good Return On Equity?
Arguably the easiest way to assess company's ROE is to compare it with the average in its industry. Importantly, this is far from a perfect measure, because companies differ significantly within the same industry classification. If you look at the image below, you can see Vonovia has a lower ROE than the average (4.9%) in the Real Estate industry classification.XTRA:VNA Return on Equity August 7th 2025
That certainly isn't ideal. That being said, a low ROE is not always a bad thing, especially if the company has low leverage as this still leaves room for improvement if the company were to take on more debt. When a company has low ROE but high debt levels, we would be cautious as the risk involved is too high. To know the 3 risks we have identified for Vonovia visit our risks dashboard for free.
Why You Should Consider Debt When Looking At ROE
Companies usually need to invest money to grow their profits. The cash for investment can come from prior year profits (retained earnings), issuing new shares, or borrowing. In the first and second cases, the ROE will reflect this use of cash for investment in the business. In the latter case, the use of debt will improve the returns, but will not change the equity. Thus the use of debt can improve ROE, albeit along with extra risk in the case of stormy weather, metaphorically speaking.
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Vonovia's Debt And Its 1.1% ROE
It's worth noting the high use of debt by Vonovia, leading to its debt to equity ratio of 1.49. The combination of a rather low ROE and significant use of debt is not particularly appealing. Debt does bring extra risk, so it's only really worthwhile when a company generates some decent returns from it.
Summary
Return on equity is a useful indicator of the ability of a business to generate profits and return them to shareholders. Companies that can achieve high returns on equity without too much debt are generally of good quality. If two companies have around the same level of debt to equity, and one has a higher ROE, I'd generally prefer the one with higher ROE.
But ROE is just one piece of a bigger puzzle, since high quality businesses often trade on high multiples of earnings. It is important to consider other factors, such as future profit growth -- and how much investment is required going forward. So you might want to take a peek at this data-rich interactive graph of forecasts for the company.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 15.07.25 10:55:40 |
Is Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Key Insights
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Vonovia fair value estimate is €22.26 Current share price of €28.35 suggests Vonovia is potentially 27% overvalued Our fair value estimate is 36% lower than Vonovia's analyst price target of €34.81
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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Is Vonovia Fairly Valued?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €1.96b €1.83b €1.75b €1.71b €1.69b €1.68b €1.68b €1.69b €1.70b €1.71b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ -4.04% Est @ -2.45% Est @ -1.33% Est @ -0.55% Est @ -0.01% Est @ 0.38% Est @ 0.64% Est @ 0.83% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 9.9% €1.8k €1.5k €1.3k €1.2k €1.1k €952 €866 €791 €724 €664
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €11b
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After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €1.7b× (1 + 1.3%) ÷ (9.9%– 1.3%) = €20b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €20b÷ ( 1 + 9.9%)10= €7.8b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €19b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €28.4, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.XTRA:VNA Discounted Cash Flow July 15th 2025
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Vonovia as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Check out our latest analysis for Vonovia
SWOT Analysis for Vonovia
Strength
No major strengths identified for VNA.
Weakness
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Real Estate market.
Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Expected to breakeven next year.
Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.
Revenue is forecast to decrease over the next 2 years.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Vonovia, we've put together three fundamental elements you should explore:
Risks: Be aware that Vonovia is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit concerning... Future Earnings: How does VNA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 25.06.25 04:29:38 |
Sollten Sie Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) bei 30,16 ⬠untersuchen?. |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) führte die XTRA-Gewinner mit einem relativ starken Kursanstieg in den letzten Wochen an. Obwohl dies eine gute Nachricht für die Aktionäre ist, wurde das Unternehmen im vergangenen Jahr viel höher gehandelt. Da viele Analysten über die Large-Cap-Aktie berichten, ist davon auszugehen, dass alle kursrelevanten Ankündigungen bereits im Aktienkurs berücksichtigt wurden.. Könnte die Aktie jedoch noch zu einem relativ günstigen Preis gehandelt werden? Heute werden wir die neuesten Daten zu den Aussichten und der Bewertung von Vonovia analysieren, um zu sehen, ob die Gelegenheit noch besteht.16 im Vergleich zu unserem inneren Wert von â¬25.09. Nicht die beste Nachricht für kaufwillige Anleger! Wenn Sie die Aktie mögen, sollten Sie in Zukunft auf einen möglichen Kursrückgang achten. Da der Kurs der Vonovia-Aktie recht volatil ist, könnte dies bedeuten, dass er in der Zukunft noch weiter sinken (oder steigen) kann, was uns eine weitere Chance für eine Investition bietet.. Dies ist auf den hohen Beta-Wert zurückzuführen, der ein guter Indikator dafür ist, wie stark sich die Aktie im Vergleich zum übrigen Markt bewegt.. Obwohl Value-Investoren argumentieren wÃŒrden, dass der innere Wert im VerhÀltnis zum Preis am wichtigsten ist, wÃŒrde eine ÃŒberzeugende Investitionsthese ein hohes Wachstumspotenzial zu einem gÃŒnstigen Preis sein.. Im Fall von Vonovia wird jedoch in den nächsten Jahren ein stark negatives Umsatzwachstum erwartet, was die Investitionsthese nicht gerade untermauert.. Das Risiko künftiger Ungewissheit scheint hoch zu sein, zumindest auf kurze Sicht. Angesichts der Ungewissheit eines negativen Wachstums in der Zukunft könnte dies der richtige Zeitpunkt sein, um das Gesamtrisiko Ihres Portfolios zu reduzieren. Doch bevor Sie diese Entscheidung treffen, sollten Sie prüfen, ob sich die Grundlagen des Unternehmens geändert haben. Der Kurs des Unternehmens kletterte über seinen wahren Wert hinaus, zusätzlich zu den riskanten Zukunftsaussichten. Es gibt jedoch auch andere wichtige Faktoren, die wir heute noch nicht berücksichtigt haben, wie zum Beispiel die Finanzkraft des Unternehmens. Um Ihnen dabei zu helfen, haben wir 3 Warnzeichen entdeckt (2 davon sind uns unangenehm!), auf die Sie achten sollten, bevor Sie Aktien von Vonovia kaufen.00 - $9.00 (CAD $7).30â$12.29) bis 2029.29 Â- 0.39 Â- 0.58 Â- 0. Alternativ können Sie auch eine E-Mail an redaktion (at) simplywallst.com. Unsere Kommentare basieren ausschließlich auf historischen Daten und Analystenprognosen, wobei wir eine unvoreingenommene Methodik anwenden. Unsere Artikel sind nicht als Finanzberatung gedacht.. Sie stellt keine Empfehlung zum Kauf oder Verkauf von Aktien dar und berücksichtigt weder Ihre Ziele noch Ihre finanzielle Situation.. Unser Ziel ist es, Ihnen eine langfristige, auf Fundamentaldaten basierende Analyse zu bieten.. Beachten Sie, dass unsere Analyse möglicherweise nicht die neuesten kursrelevanten Unternehmensmeldungen oder qualitatives Material berücksichtigt.. Simply Wall St hat keine Position in den genannten Aktien. |
| 20.06.25 09:31:54 |
CFOs On the Move: Woche bis 20. Juni |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Izzard tritt die Nachfolge von Dave Murray an, der am 30. Juni aus dem Amt scheidet.. Murray, der im April 2024 als Finanzchef zum Einzelhändler kam, wird für eine Übergangszeit bei ASOS bleiben.. Payne kommt von der klinischen Hautpflegemarke Urban Skin Rx zu dem Unternehmen, wo sie zuletzt als Chief Executive Officer tätig war.. |
| 21.03.25 16:00:09 |
What Makes Vonovia (VONOY) a New Strong Buy Stock |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Vonovia SE Unsponsored ADR (VONOY) could be a solid choice for investors given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.
The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Individual investors often find it hard to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts, since these are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time. In these situations, the Zacks rating system comes in handy because of the power of a changing earnings picture in determining near-term stock price movements.
As such, the Zacks rating upgrade for Vonovia is essentially a positive comment on its earnings outlook that could have a favorable impact on its stock price.
Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock Prices
The change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, has proven to be strongly correlated with the near-term price movement of its stock. That's partly because of the influence of institutional investors that use earnings and earnings estimates for calculating the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their bulk investment action then leads to price movement for the stock.
For Vonovia, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade fundamentally mean an improvement in the company's underlying business. And investors' appreciation of this improving business trend should push the stock higher.
Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, so it could be truly rewarding if such revisions are tracked for making an investment decision. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.
The Zacks Rank stock-rating system, which uses four factors related to earnings estimates to classify stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record, with Zacks Rank #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>.
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Earnings Estimate Revisions for Vonovia
This company is expected to earn $1.09 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, which represents a year-over-year change of 278.7%.
Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for Vonovia. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 2.2%.
Bottom Line
Unlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings for its entire universe of more than 4000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a 'Strong Buy' rating and the next 15% get a 'Buy' rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.
You can learn more about the Zacks Rank here >>>
The upgrade of Vonovia to a Zacks Rank #1 positions it in the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, implying that the stock might move higher in the near term.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Vonovia SE Unsponsored ADR (VONOY) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
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| 20.03.25 12:31:59 |
Vonovia Full Year 2024 Earnings: EPS Misses Expectations |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Vonovia (ETR:VNA) Full Year 2024 Results
Key Financial Results
Revenue: €7.08b (up 18% from FY 2023). Net loss: €922.7m (loss narrowed by 85% from FY 2023). €1.12 loss per share (improved from €7.61 loss in FY 2023).
Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.XTRA:VNA Earnings and Revenue Growth March 20th 2025
All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period
Vonovia EPS Misses Expectations
Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 84%.
Looking ahead, revenue is expected to fall by 27% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 19% decline forecast for the Real Estate industry in Germany.
Performance of the German Real Estate industry.
The company's shares are down 2.9% from a week ago.
Risk Analysis
It's necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Vonovia (at least 1 which can't be ignored), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 19.03.25 07:06:00 |
Vonovia Net Loss Narrows as Adjusted Earnings Hit Upper End of Guidance |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
The real-estate company posted a net loss for 2024 of $1.05 billion compared with $7.40 billion the prior year, and raised its dividend as adjusted earnings hit the upper end of guidance.
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| 12.03.25 08:35:14 |
Vonovia SE's (ETR:VNA) 12% loss last week hit both individual investors who own 49% as well as institutions |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Key Insights
Vonovia's significant retail investors ownership suggests that the key decisions are influenced by shareholders from the larger public A total of 25 investors have a majority stake in the company with 44% ownership Institutional ownership in Vonovia is 37%
A look at the shareholders of Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) can tell us which group is most powerful. With 49% stake, retail investors possess the maximum shares in the company. That is, the group stands to benefit the most if the stock rises (or lose the most if there is a downturn).
Following a 12% decrease in the stock price last week, retail investors suffered the most losses, but institutions who own 37% stock also took a hit.
In the chart below, we zoom in on the different ownership groups of Vonovia.
Check out our latest analysis for Vonovia XTRA:VNA Ownership Breakdown March 12th 2025
What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Vonovia?
Institutions typically measure themselves against a benchmark when reporting to their own investors, so they often become more enthusiastic about a stock once it's included in a major index. We would expect most companies to have some institutions on the register, especially if they are growing.
As you can see, institutional investors have a fair amount of stake in Vonovia. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. If multiple institutions change their view on a stock at the same time, you could see the share price drop fast. It's therefore worth looking at Vonovia's earnings history below. Of course, the future is what really matters.XTRA:VNA Earnings and Revenue Growth March 12th 2025
Vonovia is not owned by hedge funds. Looking at our data, we can see that the largest shareholder is Norges Bank Investment Management with 14% of shares outstanding. BlackRock, Inc. is the second largest shareholder owning 7.7% of common stock, and The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds about 4.0% of the company stock.
On studying our ownership data, we found that 25 of the top shareholders collectively own less than 50% of the share register, implying that no single individual has a majority interest.
While studying institutional ownership for a company can add value to your research, it is also a good practice to research analyst recommendations to get a deeper understand of a stock's expected performance. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily.
Insider Ownership Of Vonovia
The definition of company insiders can be subjective and does vary between jurisdictions. Our data reflects individual insiders, capturing board members at the very least. Company management run the business, but the CEO will answer to the board, even if he or she is a member of it.
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I generally consider insider ownership to be a good thing. However, on some occasions it makes it more difficult for other shareholders to hold the board accountable for decisions.
We note our data does not show any board members holding shares, personally. Not all jurisdictions have the same rules around disclosing insider ownership, and it is possible we have missed something, here. So you can click here learn more about the CEO.
General Public Ownership
The general public, who are usually individual investors, hold a 49% stake in Vonovia. While this size of ownership may not be enough to sway a policy decision in their favour, they can still make a collective impact on company policies.
Next Steps:
While it is well worth considering the different groups that own a company, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Vonovia (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.
If you would prefer discover what analysts are predicting in terms of future growth, do not miss this freereport on analyst forecasts.
NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 30.01.25 13:20:33 |
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Key Insights
The projected fair value for Vonovia is €29.75 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Vonovia's €28.46 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate Our fair value estimate is 20% lower than Vonovia's analyst price target of €37.04
How far off is Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Vonovia
The Calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €1.96b €1.82b €1.98b €2.06b €2.10b €2.13b €2.16b €2.19b €2.22b €2.24b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 1.92% Est @ 1.63% Est @ 1.43% Est @ 1.29% Est @ 1.19% Est @ 1.12% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2% €1.8k €1.5k €1.5k €1.4k €1.4k €1.3k €1.2k €1.1k €1.0k €930
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €13b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.
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Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €2.2b× (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (9.2%– 1.0%) = €27b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €27b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)10= €11b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €24b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €28.5, the company appears about fair value at a 4.3% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.XTRA:VNA Discounted Cash Flow January 30th 2025
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Vonovia as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Vonovia
Strength
No major strengths identified for VNA.
Weakness
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Real Estate market.
Opportunity
Expected to breakeven next year.
Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.
Revenue is forecast to decrease over the next 2 years.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Vonovia, we've compiled three important items you should explore:
Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Vonovia (1 is significant) you should be aware of. Future Earnings: How does VNA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the XTRA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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| 25.12.24 07:22:01 |
Why Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) Could Be Worth Watching |
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**Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!**
Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the XTRA over the last few months, increasing to €33.57 at one point, and dropping to the lows of €28.77. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Vonovia's current trading price of €29.29 reflective of the actual value of the large-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Vonovia’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
See our latest analysis for Vonovia
What Is Vonovia Worth?
According to our valuation model, Vonovia seems to be fairly priced at around 1.5% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Vonovia today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is €29.75, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Vonovia’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What kind of growth will Vonovia generate?XTRA:VNA Earnings and Revenue Growth December 25th 2024
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with an extreme expected decline in the top-line over the next couple of years, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. Even with a larger decline in expenses, it seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for Vonovia.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? Currently, VNA appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on VNA for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on VNA should the price fluctuate below its true value.
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If you'd like to know more about Vonovia as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, Vonovia has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
If you are no longer interested in Vonovia, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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