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Einblickreiche Entscheidungen im ersten Quartal 2026

Einführung in Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss (Transaktionen, Portfolio)

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Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss (Transaktionen, Portfolio) hat kürzlich ihre 13F-Datei für das erste Quartal 2026 eingereicht und bietet damit einen Blick in ihre strategischen Investitionsentscheidungen. Das Unternehmen, geleitet von Executive Director Herrn Barrow, ist in Dallas ansässig und wird aufgrund seines disziplinierten Wertinvestitionsansatzes bekannt.

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New York, February 20, 2026 – (BUSINESS WIRE) – Western Alliance Bank gab heute bekannt, dass OnQ, der führende Anbieter von Einzelhandelsdisplays, eine erweiterte Kreditlinie im Wert von 7,5 Millionen US-Dollar von Western Alliance’s Asset-Based Lending Group erhalten hat.

Western Alliance Bank unterstützt OnQ durch die Bereitstellung einer asset-based Kreditlinie und maßgeschneiderter Treasury-Management-Lösungen, um dem Unternehmen seinen aktuellen Wachstumskurs zu unterstützen. Diese Kreditlinie gibt OnQ die Flexibilität, seine Plattform zu erweitern und eine wachsende Basis von globalen Einzelhandelsmarken zu bedienen.

OnQ hat seit über 20 Jahren das Vertrauen von Top-Einzelhändlern und Marken wie Walmart, Costco, Samsung, Sony, Kroger und Lowe’s gewonnen – um nur einige zu nennen. Mit Installationen in über 10.000 Geschäften weltweit bietet OnQ umfassende Einzelhandelslösungen von Design und Ingenieurwesen bis hin zu Installation und Support.

„OnQ ist der globale Marktführer im Bereich Einzelhandelsdisplays, mit einer nachgewiesenen Erfolgsbilanz bei der Skalierung“, sagte Ryan Banta, Senior Director of Commercial Banking bei Western Alliance Bank. „Wir freuen uns sehr, dieses dynamische Unternehmen bei seinen Bemühungen zu unterstützen, die Zukunft des globalen Einzelhandels zu gestalten.“

OnQ spezialisiert sich auf die Bereitstellung umfassender Einzelhandelslösungen, die skaliert werden können. OnQ’s Designer und Ingenieure verwandeln Konzepte in Einzelhandelsfertige Systeme, von der Sicherheit zum Schutz hochwertiger Produkte, ohne das Design zu beeinträchtigen, bis hin zur Technologie, die Geräte verbindet und Echtzeit-Analysen bietet. Überall bietet OnQ Lösungen, die die Interaktion fördern und Kunden mit Marken verbinden.

„Als ein Unternehmen, das sich unaufhörlich zukunftsorientiert orientiert, freuen wir uns sehr, mit einer Bank zusammenzuarbeiten, die sowohl flexibel als auch zukunftsweisend ist“, sagte Paul Chapuis, Gründer und CEO von OnQ. „Das Western Alliance Team versteht unsere Vision, nahtlose Einzelhandelserlebnisse für Marken weltweit zu schaffen.“

Über OnQ

OnQ ist ein führender Anbieter von interaktiven, technologiegestützten und sicheren Einzelhandelsdisplays und In-Store-Erlebnissen. Das Unternehmen wurde 2004 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Hayward, Kalifornien, mit Produktionsstätten in Akron, Ohio. OnQ schafft seit über zwei Jahrzehnten wegweisende Einzelhandelsumgebungen für die weltweit bekanntesten Marken und Einzelhändler. Die modulare und flexible Displayplattform ermöglicht es Einzelhändlern und Marken, Produktbestände mit minimaler Störung schnell und kostengünstig zu aktualisieren. OnQ’s Warenwirtschaftslösungen unterstützen ein breites Spektrum von Kategorien, darunter Konsumelektronik, Smart Home, Haustierbedarf, Gesundheit & Schönheit und Haushaltsartikel. Durch die Kombination aus innovativem Design, Sicherheit und Technologie hilft OnQ Marken, sinnvolle Verbindungen zu Käufern im Geschäft und darüber hinaus zu schaffen. Erfahren Sie mehr unter www.onqsolutions.com.

Über Western Alliance Bank

Western Alliance Bancorporation (NYSE:WAL) ist eines der leistungsstärksten Bankunternehmen im Land und wurde seit 2016 von American Banker und Bank Director als eine der besten US-Banken gelistet. Die Haupttochtergesellschaft, Western Alliance Bank, ist eine führende nationale Bank für Unternehmen, die Kunden in den Mittelpunkt stellt und maßgeschneiderte Geschäftskonten und Verbraucherprodukte mit außergewöhnlichem, persönlichem Service und spezifischer Expertise in über 30 Branchen und Sektoren anbietet. Mit 90 Milliarden US-Dollar an Vermögenswerten und Niederlassungen im ganzen Land unterstützt Western Alliance Unternehmen jeder Größe dabei, ihre Chancen zu nutzen, um heute erfolgreich zu sein und morgen weiterzubauen. Für weitere Informationen über unsere Angebote, Tochtergesellschaften und Geschäftsbereiche besuchen Sie Western Alliance Bank, Member FDIC, oder folgen Sie uns auf LinkedIn.

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Zusammenfassung

Die heutige Marktentwicklung war gemischt, wobei der S&P 500 und der Dow Jones leicht gestiegen sind, während der Nasdaq-Index etwas hinterherhinkte. Die Marktbewegungen wurden durch ein komplexes Zusammenspiel von Faktoren angetrieben, das sowohl Unterstützung als auch Widerstände bot.

Positiver Stimmungsschub kam zunächst durch niedrigere Renditen von US-Treasuries und einen überraschend starken Bericht über die US-Produktion von Gütern. Dies deutete auf eine Widerstandsfähigkeit der US-Wirtschaft hin und stärkte das Vertrauen der Anleger. Allerdings entkräfteten mehrere negative Entwicklungen diesen Schwung schnell. Präsident Trump drohte erneut mit 100% Zöllen auf US-Importe aus Kanada – angetrieben durch den potenziellen Handel zwischen Kanada und China – und schuf erhebliche Unsicherheiten. Darüber hinaus erhöhte die Möglichkeit eines US-Regierungsstillstands aufgrund von Finanzstreitigkeiten, insbesondere im Zusammenhang mit dem Ministerium für Heimatschutz und ICE, den Druck. Auch anhaltende Bedenken hinsichtlich geopolitischer Instabilität, insbesondere in Bezug auf Grönland, und die durch einen großen Schneesturm verursachten Unterbrechungen verstärkten die allgemeine Besorgnis.

Der US-Dollar verzeichnete einen deutlichen Rückgang und erreichte einen 4-Monats-Tiefststand. Spekulationen über eine mögliche Koordination zwischen den USA und Japan zur Stärkung des Yen übten Druck auf den Dollar aus. Dieser Schritt steht im Einklang mit Präsident Trump's ausgedrückter Präferenz für einen schwachen Dollar, um Exporte anzukurbeln.

Die Stärke der Güterproduktion bot einen vorübergehenden Aufschwung, der die Erwartungen übertraf. Der Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, ein wichtiger Indikator, zeigte ebenfalls einen kleineren Rückgang als erwartet. Trotzdem ist die Berichtssaison von entscheidender Bedeutung, wobei diese Woche 102 von 500 S&P 500 Unternehmen Ergebnisse veröffentlicht haben. Die Ergebnisse waren im Allgemeinen positiv, wobei 78 % der gemeldeten Unternehmen die Erwartungen übertroffen haben, was die Markterholung unterstützte. Analysten erwarten jedoch weiterhin ein Wachstum der Gewinne im vierten Quartal, mit einer erwarteten Steigerung von 8,4 % für den S&P 500, wobei der Einfluss der "Magnificent Seven" Technologieunternehmen ausgeschlossen wird, die zu einem Wachstum von 4,6 % führen würden.

Das Treffen des Federal Reserve (FOMC) diese Woche ist besonders bedeutsam. Die Märkte schätzen die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Kürbis Schneiders auf 3 %. Die Markterwartung ist, dass die Fed ihre aktuellen Zinssätze beibehalten wird.

Weltweit zeigten die Aktienmärkte gemischte Ergebnisse. Der Euro Stoxx 50 stieg leicht, während der Shanghai Composite und der Nikkei Stock 225 fielen.

Sektor-Bewegungen: Technologieaktien, insbesondere Apple, Meta und Nvidia (aufgrund weiterer Investitionen), führten das Wachstum an. Bergbauaktien erlebten einen Anstieg, angetrieben durch Rekordhöhen der Gold- und Silberpreise. Mehrere einzelne Aktien erzielten ebenfalls deutliche Gewinne, darunter Allied Gold (aufgrund eines Übernahmeangebots), CoreWeave (mit einer erheblichen Investition von Nvidia) und USA Rare Earth Inc (unterstützt durch eine staatliche Investition). Im Gegenzug stürzte Revolution Medicines nach einer berichteten Beendigung der Fusionen mit Merck ab.

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Zusammenfassung (600 Wörter)

Die globalen Aktienmärkte erlebten einen gemischten Handelstag, mit positiven Kursgewinnen in den USA und Europa, aber einem bemerkenswerten Rückgang in Japan. Der S&P 500, der Dow Jones und der Nasdaq 100 stiegen, vor allem aufgrund niedriger Staatsanleihenrenditen und des überraschend positiven Berichts über die US-Rohstoffbestellungen. Dieser Bericht deutete auf eine Widerstandsfähigkeit der US-Wirtschaft hin und unterstützte die Marktstimmung.

Dennoch standen der positiven Dynamik Hindernisse entgegen. Präsident Trump’s Ankündigung von 100% Zöllen auf US-Importe aus Kanada, die sich aus dem potenziellen Handelsabkommen zwischen Kanada und China ergeben, führten zu erheblichen Handelsunsicherheiten. Die Möglichkeit eines US-Regierungsembetanks aufgrund von Finanzstreitigkeiten über Homeland Security/ICE verstärkte die Anspannung am Markt. Lingering Bedenken hinsichtlich der Lage in Grönland und Unterbrechungen durch einen Großsturm trugen ebenfalls zu der vorsichtigen Atmosphäre bei.

Darüber hinaus blieb die zukünftige Geldpolitik der Federal Reserve (FOMC) ein kontroverses Thema. Die Markterwartungen für einen Zinssenkung von 25 Basispunkten bei der kommenden FOMC-Sitzung waren gering (nur 3% Wahrscheinlichkeit), was Spekulationen über das Potenzial für eine weniger faule Politik der Fed beförderte.

Der US-Dollar schwächte sich deutlich, fiel auf ein 4-Monats-Tief, angetrieben von der Spekulation über mögliche Interventionen der USA auf dem Währungsmarkt, insbesondere um den japanischen Yen zu stützen. Diese Intervention würde mit Präsident Trumps Ansicht übereinstimmen, dass ein schwächerer Dollar die US-Exporte begünstigt. Der Rückgang des Dollars erhöhte auch die Bedenken hinsichtlich Kapitalflucht aus den USA.

Trotz der Marktvolatilität stiegen die Rohstoffe, insbesondere Gold und Silber, auf Rekordhöhen, was Bergbauunternehmen wie Anglogold Ashanti, Hecla und Coeur Mining begünstigte. Der robuste Bericht über Rohstoffbestellungen lieferte einen wichtigen positiven Faktor und stärkte das Vertrauen der Investoren.

Die Indizes für die Aktivitäten der Chicagoer und Dallaser Zentralbank zeigten ermutigende Trends, die auf eine Steigerung der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität hindeuteten. Die Berichtssaison spielte weiterhin eine wichtige Rolle, wobei 78 % der S&P 500-Unternehmen Ergebnisse erzielten, die die Erwartungen übertrafen. Bloomberg Intelligence prognostizierte ein Wachstum der S&P-Gewinne um 8,4 % im vierten Quartal, wobei die „Magnificent Seven“-Technologietitel (die nicht berücksichtigt wurden) durch deutliche Gewinne von Apple, Microsoft, Meta und Alphabet angeführt wurden.

Die Zinssätze blieben relativ stabil, wobei die Rendite der 10-jährigen US-Staatsanleihe bei 4,211 % lag. Auch die Renditen europäischer Anleihen sanken, hauptsächlich beeinflusst durch den Rückgang des Dollars.

Einige der wichtigsten Aktienbewegungen umfassten Allied Gold (vom Takeover-Angebot begünstigt) und CoreWeave (von Nvidia mit einer erheblichen Investition unterstützt), sowie Gewinne für Unternehmen, die von Analysten aufgewertet wurden. Umgekehrt erlebte Revolution Medicines einen starken Rückgang, nachdem Verhandlungen über den Erwerb durch Merck abgebrochen wurden. Zahlreiche andere Unternehmen veröffentlichten Gewinne und Kursbewegungen, die ihre finanziellen Ergebnisse widerspiegelten (AGNC, ARE, BRO, CR, GGG, NUE, STLD, WRB, WAL).

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Image source: The Motley Fool.

DATE

Friday, October 18, 2024 at 12:00 p.m. ET

CALL PARTICIPANTS

Chief Executive Officer — Kenneth Vecchione Chief Financial Officer — Dale Gibbons Chief Credit Officer — Tim Bruckner

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Full Conference Call Transcript

Kenneth Vecchione: Good morning. As always, I'll make some brief comments about our third quarter earnings before turning the call over to Dale, who will review our financial results in more detail. After I discuss our outlook for the remainder of 2024, Tim Bruckner will join us for Q&A. Western Alliance delivered solid third quarter results and earned $1.80 per share. These results demonstrated the bank's ability to sustain diversified loan and deposit momentum, as well as grow earnings during a changing rate environment. We produced healthy deposit growth of $1.8 billion or 11% annualized and HFI loan growth of $916 million, or 7% annualized, despite sluggish demand overall for credit – overall credit in the economy.

Our national diversified credit origination and deposit platforms uniquely position us to sustain strong deposit growth and then deploy this liquidity into attractive commercial loans where we can provide deep segment and product expertise. During a transitional period for the rate cycle that began in Q3, net interest income grew 25% annualized due to higher average earning assets. Net interest margin compressed 2 basis points because of lower yields on variable rate loans. Continued interest rate cuts will enable Western Alliance to realize significant funding cost savings in both interest-bearing and ECR related deposits going forward. We anticipate a more meaningful benefit from lower rates in Q4 from a full quarter impact of lower rates.

Q3 results were modestly impacted by $4 billion of mortgage warehouse deposit growth driven by elevated mortgage refinance volumes, validating our operational excellence as we continue to win market share following several competitors retreating from the market. After the money center banks, Western Alliance is now the largest bank operating in this space. This excess deposit growth somewhat impacted Q3 earnings from elevated deposit costs, but these deposits have helped cement core customer relationships, which will continue to drive strong risk adjusted loan volume and spread income. Typical seasonal declines in mortgage warehouse deposit balances are poised to push Q4 ECR related deposit costs materially lower.

Non-interest income increased $11 million or 10% quarter-over-quarter, but this growth was tempered by a decline in mortgage banking income. Our franchise remains poised specifically benefit from a resumption of stronger mortgage volume. Pre-provision net revenue grew marginally from Q2, while tangible book value per share climbed 19% year-over-year. Lastly, asset quality remains stable as non-performing assets to total assets declined 6 basis points to 45 basis points. Net charge-offs of 20 basis points landed within our Street guidance range. Dale will now take you through the results in more detail.

Story Continues

Dale Gibbons: Thanks, Ken. During this quarter, Western Alliance generated pre-provision net revenue of $286 million, net income of $200 million and earnings per share of $1.80. Net interest income increased $40 million from Q2 to $697 million, equating nearly 25% annualized growth because of higher average earning asset balances driven by loan growth. Non-interest income of $126 million rose $11 million quarter-over-quarter from higher service charges and loan fees, benefiting from commercial banking fees and a new bank owned life insurance policy, which along with securities gains help mitigate lower mortgage banking income. Securities gains were taken as we sold the collateral held for a large bankruptcy deposit as it went into distribution.

Mortgage loan production rose 21% from Q2 and 10% year-over-year. Loan servicing revenue was negatively impacted by prepayment speeds accelerating due to the declining rate environment, which caused a negative change in the MSR fair value net of hedging of $15 million. Non-interest expense for the quarter was $537 million. Deposit costs of $208 million drove the quarter-over-quarter increase due to strong demand in mortgage warehouse. In aggregate, net interest income growth exceeded deposit growth by $6 million this quarter. It is important to emphasize the recent 50 basis point reduction in the Fed funds target rate occurred less than two weeks before the end of Q3. Consequently, rate reduction actions for ECR related deposits were also backloaded.

Seasonal outflows in mortgage warehouse from Q4 tax and insurance payments and a full quarter impact of lower rates make us confident Q3 will prove to be the high watermark in ECR related deposit costs for this rate cycle. Provision expense of $34 million resulted from sustained loan growth and $27 million of net charge-offs. The balance sheet remained at approximately $80 billion of solid loan and deposit growth were offset by securities and cash declining $2.4 billion quarter-over-quarter and a further $2.6 billion reduction in period-end borrowings. A large distribution of bankruptcy settlement funds drove a notable decline in Juris Banking deposits, which allowed us to sell the collateralizing securities.

Loans held for investment grew $916 million to over $53 billion while deposits grew $1.8 billion to $68 billion at quarter end. Tangible book value per share continues its expansion, rising 6.5% quarter-over-quarter to $51.98 and was aided by a large improvement in our AOCI position. Loan growth of $916 million resulted from large contributions from regional banking as well as mortgage warehouse and MSR lending. We continue to diversify the loan portfolio as shown by C&I loans growing over $4 billion year-over-year and now accounting for 42% of the held for investment loan portfolio compared to 37% one year ago.

At the same time, we lowered the overall allocation for commercial real estate investor and CLD categories from 29% to 27%. Deposit growth of $1.8 billion was generated from seasonal inflows at mortgage warehouse which grew $4.1 billion, while our consumer digital channel increased $1.3 billion and continue to add more granular deposits uncorrelated with our commercial banking business lines. Homeowners Association deposits also posted growth in a seasonally softer quarter. As mentioned before, Juris Banking deposits has decreased $2.7 billion. Overall core deposit growth was $2 billion as we modestly reduced wholesale broker deposits by approximately $200 million. Turning to our net interest drivers. The yield on total securities increased 2 basis points to 4.89%.

Our liquidity position remains solid as unencumbered high quality liquid assets were 64% of securities and cash, while securities and cash were 24% of total assets. HFI loan yields decreased 14 basis points to 6.65%, due to asset repricing for SOFR type loans in advance of the Fed's rate decision. The cost of interest-bearing deposits was 3 basis points higher as a result of $1.3 billion of quarterly deposit growth in our consumer digital channel. The total cost of funds declined 12 basis points to 2.67%, due to the deposit mix shifting towards non-interest-bearing and a smaller proportion of earning assets funded by borrowings.

If you compare the difference between the period end spot rates and average rates for the quarter, you'll see that the difference is wider for interest-bearing deposits compared to HFI loans. In other words, we are seeing funding cost tailwinds emerge outside of just ECR related funding. In aggregate, net interest income increased $40 million from higher average earning asset balances and loan growth. Net interest margin compressed 2 basis points from Q2 to 3.61%, which would have been flat, but for the new BOLI policy as $800 million of earning assets were deployed for this purpose. Regarding interest rate sensitivity, Western Alliance is liability sensitive on an earnings at risk basis.

With a dynamic balance sheet, a minus 100 basis point rate ramp analysis indicates pretax interest sensitive earnings should increase 1.5%. In this scenario, the expected negative impact on net interest income would be more than offset by expected reductions in ECR related deposit costs, as well as a pickup in mortgage banking income at a lower rate environment should unleash. Our adjusted efficiency ratio for the quarter was 53%, modestly higher operating expense growth compared to the revenue growth drove the 120 basis point increase from last quarter. Excluding the impact of the FDIC special assessment rebate in Q2, this ratio would have remained flat quarter-over-quarter. Asset quality continues to remain relatively stable.

In Q2, criticized assets rose $60 million as special mention loans declined $30 million while classified assets increased $90 million. Precise assets are up only $33 million from a year ago. We expect the total criticized asset pools remain relatively stable. Non-performing assets as a percentage of total assets declined 6 basis points to 45% due to payoffs and sales. Our non-performing assets consist primarily of CRE office loans, which is unsurprising given the environment characterized by still elevated interest rates and lower office property valuations. Quarterly net loan charge-offs were $26.6 million or 20 basis points of average loans. Provision expense of $34 million added reserves and concert with loan growth in addition to replenishing net charge-offs.

Our ACL for funded loans rose $5 million from the prior quarter to $357 million. The total loan ACL with a funded loan ratio of 74 basis points was unchanged and covered 113% of non-performing loans. Slide 14 shows the updated ACL block that we have regularly provided to add more context behind our allowance methodology relative to peers. Our ACL list from 74 basis points to 1.31%, when incorporating the effect of credit linked notes, which have provided a pool of prepaid insurance money to us to cover charge-offs, as well as low to no loss loans like equity fund resources or low LTV and high FICO residential portfolio, and mortgage warehouse loans.

Compared to the $50 billion to $250 billion asset peer banks we benefit from a greater CLN support as well as a greater percentage of loans and low to no loss categories. Our CET1 ratio increased approximately 20 basis points to 11.2%. Our tangible common equity to total assets ratio moved up approximately 50 basis points from Q2 to 7.2% as our all other comprehensive income loss position recovered substantially due to a lower rate environment.

Given the conversation about Basel III end game capital, I also mentioned that our CET1 ratio, including AOCI and our loss reserve is 11.1%, which is 50 basis points above the second quarter adjusted CET1 ratio of 10.6% and ranks in the top quartile of our asset class peers. Finally, tangible book value per share increased $2.19 quarter-over-quarter to $51.98 for earnings growth and our negative AOCI position improving by almost one-third. Our consistent upward trajectory and tangible book value per share is outpaced peers by tenfold since the end of 2013. Even when incorporating Q3 data for peers, which is not yet available, while relative performance will still be well in excess of their TPV growth.

I'll now turn the call back to Ken.

Kenneth Vecchione: Thanks, Dale. Following our Q3 results, we updated our 2024 and Q4 guidance as follows: we expect loan growth of approximately $1.25 billion next quarter to be achieved in a safe, sound and thoughtful manner. Our current 78% HFI loan-to-deposit ratio provides ample flexibility to selectively originate attractive loans. Deposits are expected to temporarily decline $2 billion in Q4 due to typical seasonal outflows of property tax and insurance payments in mortgage warehouse and active management of our deposit mix to maximize deposit betas and lower the cost of interest-bearing and ECR related deposit costs. Turning to capital. We reiterate that our CET1 ratio will remain at 11% as loan growth continues.

Net interest income is expected to decline approximately 3% next quarter due to market tied variable loans repricing slightly ahead of funding costs. This dynamic is a function of the transitional period to a lower rate environment that got underway in Q3. However, ECR related deposit costs are expected to significantly decline by approximately 25% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 and outpaced a decline in net interest income. We expect net interest margin incorporating ECR cost to have bottomed in Q3 and to experience continued expansion into future periods. Non-interest income should increase around 8% to 12% next quarter from traction in cultivating commercial banking fee opportunities and firming mortgage banking income.

Non-interest expense should decline between 5% and 9%, mostly from the expected drop in ECR related deposit costs, given the pivot in the rate environment and the typical Q4 seasonal factors previously discussed. Asset quality remains in line with our expectations. We expect steady net charge-offs in Q4 on the 20 basis point area, which implies full year 2024 net charge-offs should be no greater than 20 basis points. We believe this will still rank among the best of our peers. Lastly, the effective tax rate for full year 2024 is now estimated to fall between 20% and 22%. At this time, Dale, Tim and I look forward to answering your questions.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Ebrahim Poonawala: Hey, good morning. So I guess, first question -- just first question around deposits. Trying to understand, so we've -- I'm assuming you were aware of the seasonality last quarter when you raised the deposit guidance for the year. So I'm just trying to understand, if you can give us a little color on the settlement that impact and how pronounced is the seasonality versus just some of these chunkier outflows? And are there more such deposits that could leave the bank that could have some meaningful impact on near-term NII trajectory?

Just if we can address NII, both in terms of larger outflows and then, how impactful is the 4Q seasonality because I'm not sure it was that prevalent in the fourth quarter of last year? Thanks.

Kenneth Vecchione: Yeah. Thank you. I think you've confused a few things. So let me straighten that out. Number one, in Q3, we did see a very large settlement out of our Juris Banking Group that was a little bit earlier than our expectations. We had expected it to happen into 2025, the settlement moved up earlier. Always hard to forecast when those things are going to be dependent on the court system and it depends on lawyers agreeing to what the settlement terms are, so that came out. And so absent that, we would have grown deposits in Q3 by $5 billion.

So we actually grew deposits $2 billion, we paid down $200 million of broker deposits, and that got us to the net growth of $1.8 billion. In Q4, that's when you'll see the seasonal decline of warehouse lending group, which we always have in terms of deposits flowing out for escrow insurance and P&I payments that happen at the end of the year. And that's why we've said that outflow will push Q4's deposit levels down $2 billion.

However, our balance sheet deposit growth or I'll say, our balance sheet growth all in, as you move forward into 2025, certainly for deposits remains unchanged which is, we expect to have $2 billion per quarter on average, $2 billion per quarter of deposit growth. We have a good line of sight into that. We've got clarity into that because of the number of home grown deposit platforms that we have built over the years starting with our granddaddy, which is the HOA business.

Also, our warehouse lending group has a very strong deposit business and we added business escrow services in the last two years, settlement services, sometimes known as Juris Banking, and our consumer digital platform as well and also corporate trust. So these are all homegrown deposit businesses that a couple of years ago really never existed inside of our bank and now are beginning to perform admirably. In addition, we've got good deposit growth that comes from our commercial lines of business or previously known as our -- as the regional business.

So that's sort of the deposits and while -- just on balance sheet, I'll just say, and we also expect, as we move forward into 2025 to see deposit on loan growth average $1 billion or so per quarter. And we're running a very -- a much lower deposit loan-to-deposit ratio. So if we have the opportunity to put on, as we say, good, safe and thoughtful loan growth, we have the liquidity to do that, and we could increase our loan growth throughout the year. Dale, some of these businesses report to you. Do you want to add any comments?

Dale Gibbons: No. I think that's pretty fulsome, Ken. But maybe an addition, yeah, so we see that we have kind of the liquidity that we need to be able to proceed. And as such, pushing up our loan-to-deposit ratio into the -- 80s from below 80 principally on an HFI basis, we should be able to do that. And there isn't anything like this Ebrahim on the balance sheet sell (ph). I mean, this was our largest depositor in the whole bank. And so, there isn't maybe follow-through coming in Q4, Q1 or whatever.

Kenneth Vecchione: Yeah, Ebrahim. I think we might have left that one of the last pieces of your question. You asked, did I hear correctly sort of directionally what's going to happen with net interest income? Was that one of your questions as well?

Ebrahim Poonawala: It was going to be my follow-up. So, yes, please, I think you've given the guidance. Just talk to us how that goes, NII plus ECR deposit costs with or without rate cuts?

Kenneth Vecchione: Well, I kind of feel like I asked your question for you. I might as well answer it.

Ebrahim Poonawala: All right. Please, yes.

Kenneth Vecchione: So as we look forward -- if we look forward, first, our rate is for two more cuts this year, November and December. And then we have four scheduled for next year at the end of each quarter is the way we forecasted, all right? So what you'll see overall, when you look at our balance sheet, inclusive of deposit costs, we are liability-sensitive. So our adjusted net interest margin, that's net interest margin, less deposit costs will rise in Q4 and will continue to rise throughout 2025 and net interest income less deposit costs, okay? Those dollars will continue to rise steadily in Q4 and then as you roll forward into 2025.

For the obvious reasons, deposit costs are declining, okay? So that helps, plus the balance sheet growth is going to still remain robust and you will get some volume pickup in that as well for the net interest income less deposit costs growing throughout 2025 from 2024. Actually, Q4 '24 should be higher than Q3 2024 as well, if I wasn't clear enough on that. Okay?

Ebrahim Poonawala: Okay. All very clear. I'll let Jon ask you whether or not you can earn $9 plus next year. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator: Our next question comes from Chris McGratty with KBW. Chris, please go ahead.

Christopher McGratty: Hey, good morning. Dale, I was wondering if you could help or Ken on the outlook for non-interest income for the fourth quarter. I know this quarter had an MSR adjustment, but maybe unpack the 8% to 12% growth in fees for Q4 because some of the line items moved around a little bit? Thanks.

Dale Gibbons: Yeah. So I mean, the MSR piece, I mean, a lot of that was really related to the turn in rates. So we saw a 50% increase in constant prepayment rates on our mortgage book, just at the initiation of kind of lower mortgage rates, which is to a significant are kind of backtracked presently. We don't see that happening again, but maybe there was a little more pent-up behavior than we thought. And so the result of that is the value of that asset fell more than what the gain would have on the -- on what we put against it to hold the valuation at constant. And then going forward, so we talked about a couple of things.

So one of them is, we did a BOLI transaction, that's going to continue. And that will -- those new revenues will be consistent there. You can see what we have in terms of kind of service charges. It was up from the second quarter. We think that, that number is also consistent. We had some securities gains. We do have some other collateralized deposits, not nearly of the magnitude that we talked about with the one that went into distribution in the third quarter. So I think we're probably going to have some more security gains, too, as we sell off the collateral related to those.

All of that really actually improves our liquidity because when you have a collateralized deposit, you really can't do anything else with it, as these things, as we're able to move that and substitute different deposit situations for that, it gives us an opportunity to really push into higher return assets than what it's in presently.

Christopher McGratty: Okay. And then just, I guess, my follow-up. The security gains you mentioned, is that in the guide? And I guess, a similar magnitude?

Dale Gibbons: Yeah. It would be in the guide for a smaller magnitude than what we had in the third quarter.

Christopher McGratty: Okay.

Operator: Our next question comes from Jared Shaw with Barclays. Jared, please go ahead.

Jared Shaw: Hi, good morning. Yeah. Maybe looking at the loan growth that you had referenced, especially on the C&I side, where are you seeing opportunities for that and maybe if you could just give us a little bit of early look at ‘25 in terms of sort of the pipelines and the expectation for the sustainability of that growth?

Kenneth Vecchione: Yeah. So as I said, this quarter, we grew $900 million, that's about 7% annualized to total loans of about $53.3 billion. It really came from three or four segments of our portfolio. The regional group grew all in about $300 million, warehouse lending grew almost $400 million, some leveraged finance and some resource financing when you combine those together, grew another $300 million. So it was almost [indiscernible] that got us to nearly $1 billion of loan growth for this quarter. So as we look going forward, we see a couple of areas that give us confidence to continue to restate and reiterate the guide of $1 billion in quarterly loan growth.

First, our note financing, MSR lending, warehouse lending group businesses are showing good pipelines and we like this type of financing because they are generally shorter duration loans, good risk reward. And they also allow us to evaluate credit decisions and collateral on a continuous basis, which goes to our allowance for loan loss reserves, and it goes to our lower credit losses that we have. But this is good collateral, but also we've never taken a loss at any of those categories since we've been in these businesses.

Then I would say lot banking, resort financing and our regional commercial lending provides the additional value or added value of growing our loans, but also provides loan growth that comes along with more treasury management fee income and also allows us to gather lower cost operating accounts. And so that's another area that we like. Overall, if you look at our performance year-to-date, we really have focused more on the C&I side, and you see our total growth for the year has been all on C&I, and we've downplayed construction lending and development. And we've also kept our CRE owner occupied flat as well, and that hasn't grown.

And we've also taken down our residential loans, which carry a lower yield to it. So we'll have some opportunity to put some -- we put new loans on the books to have them come in at a higher yield. So I hope that kind of gives you a sense of how we're thinking about 2025 and what we're doing to prepare for it.

Jared Shaw: Okay. That's good. Thanks. And then just as my follow-up, looking at capital with the 11% sort of, I won't call it target, but calling out 11% or above that. Should we expect you to continue to grow CET1 from this 11%, too or would there be other capital management alternatives that you'd utilize here?

Kenneth Vecchione: Yeah. I understand the question. So for our forecasting for 2025, we are assuming CET1 stays at or above 11% and stays there modestly above -- at or above 11% because we think there's going to be -- or there could be more loan growth coming our way than the $1 billion per quarter. And we want to have that CET1 dry powder to support that. And that's sort of our going-in program. In addition, as we get bigger, okay, I know we're $80 billion and our total assets came down a little bit from Q2 to Q3. But as we get bigger and we get closer to the category for bank comparisons, which we do today.

We look at other measurements of where adjusted CET1 is that CET1 less the AOCI plus the allowance for loan loss reserves. And we want to target being in that upper quartile that Dale discussed in his prepared remarks. And so we're looking at that as a way to guide us as we continue to grow.

Operator: Our next question comes from Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler. Mattew, please go ahead.

Matthew Clark: Hey, good morning. Thank you. First question around the ECR related costs. Given the volume and rate dynamic going forward and assuming either your rate assumptions that you laid out earlier or the forward curve, what is the good range of expectations for customer service cost dollars in 2025?

Dale Gibbons: The reason why has been increasing is really related to -- it's become skewed more toward the mortgage warehouse, which has about 100% beta. And so we expect that to unwind in a similar fashion as it came in. Hence, Ken's comment that we believe we're going to see a 25% reduction in these ECR costs in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter. And that should continue as we go into next year. Again, so we've had a scenario whereby our HOA deposits have consistently risen year in, year out. We expect that to continue, while the growth in our mortgage warehouse is going to be tempered.

You're going to see an outflow primarily related to insurance payments that are made in the fourth quarter, and that's what's going to pull the total deposit number down. But it's also going to be an area of less focus for us kind of going forward in terms of growth. So in other words, we're going to have an opportunity to be able to lower those costs kind of in lock step to FOMC action, and in fact, in some cases, above 100%.

Kenneth Vecchione: Yeah. And to answer -- because you asked the dollar question, Dale gave you a percentage answer. But that 25%-ish for Q4 is about a $40 million decline...

Unidentified Company Representative: $50 million.

Kenneth Vecchione: $50 million. Sorry. I'm sorry, my bad, a $50 million decline from Q2 to Q3, right? Just remember, Q2 to -- I'm sorry, Q3 -- I'm sorry, Q3 to Q4, I meant to say it's about $50 million. And remember, you got that 50 basis point bank that came out of Q3. So don't model that as $50 million per quarter, a modeling as rates coming down in a very methodical way.

Matthew Clark: Okay. So it sounds like it's more rate driven, not volume-driven kind of -- okay. Got it. Okay. And then just on the -- your kind of a blended question around loan yields. I know SOFR came down ahead of the Fed cuts, and I'm sure that hurt a little bit. It also looked like your loan fees came down to 15 basis points from 24 bps in the prior quarter, and they had been running around that level for a few quarters. I guess just what happened there and then how do we think about the overall NIM in the near term?

Dale Gibbons: Yeah. I think the low fee number is really -- I mean, you should go with the kind of the current run rate that we had in that period. In terms of the NIM, I mean, we mentioned in our slide that on a net interest income basis alone, we're expecting to see a contraction in the fourth quarter. But that will be more than made up for. So as Ken talked about earlier, we're looking for a combined NIM, including the ECRs which we expect that the global watermark was actually in the third quarter of 2024 and will increase in each successive quarter through next year.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Bernard Von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank. Bernard, please go ahead.

Bernard Von Gizycki: Hey, guys. Good morning. Just on mortgage, you previously obviously guided to 3Q being seasonally weaker with the loan production volumes were up nicely versus 2Q while the gain on sale margins declined. And obviously, you called out the negative MSR mark. Could you just talk to the puts and takes on how high demand maybe needs to pick up to see a pickup in the gain on sale margins?

Kenneth Vecchione: That is something that is a little difficult to handicap to be very honest with you. Coming into the quarter, mortgage rates at the end of Q2 were up around 7%, right? And they declined during the quarter to about 605 and today, they're in the 650 area. And so for us to handicap that, that's been a little bit of a struggle. It's based on consumer behavior of cost, and it's also based on consumer timing, i.e. if you know there are a couple of the rate cuts coming at you, would you go out today and buy a home when you know rates are coming.

And so what we say in the mortgage business is, at least what we have been saying is people love their mortgage rates, they hate their home. And now we're trying to see if people want to find a new home and just rent their mortgage rate and then refi as they go forward.

Bernard Von Gizycki: Okay. And then just as we think about maybe mortgage more broadly and just the dynamics like you mentioned with mortgage rates coming down closer to 6% and then backing off. What really gets mortgage for you guys? I think in the past, you've said maybe like the three, four rate cuts kind of help and maybe a low 6% is really what's meaningful to increase production. But just kind of wanted to get your thoughts like maybe the 6.5% hopefully comes down again, but it is based on some of the pull forward of the rate cut expectation.

So just want to get your thoughts on maybe a mortgage rate level that you think the production volumes kind of pick up and revenues follow?

Kenneth Vecchione: Yeah. I think if you start beginning to see a repeat of the early part of Q3, where rates coming down into the low 6s, that begins to pick up the volume. You then begin to gather some speed once you break the 6, the 6 barrier is the equivalent of the -- for those that remember the 4 minute -- breaking the 4 minute mile, okay? And once you break that 4 minute mile of under 6 and have a 5 handle to begin with, then we really think if the sweet spot is somewhere in that 5.50 to 5.75, that's record, that's great opportunities for us, okay? And that's sort of how we think.

So we need to break the 6 barrier and then as it drops into that 5.50 area, that's where we think there's a lot more volume coming our way.

Dale Gibbons: I might say a more tempered rate decline, we actually think works in our favor. And that is if things fall really suddenly, I think it's going to maybe have almost a rush of refinance that may not last as much. And part of the reason why mortgage rates are elevated relative to the 10-year is we believe it's simply because there's an expectation that if you refi right now, you're going to refine again in six months, it's not going to be worth all the processing costs to get that done.

And so if that view were to dissipate a little bit, and frankly, I'm pleased that the number of expectations of rate cuts for 2025 has actually been cut a little bit in the futures market at least that, that really gives it -- makes it more sustainable over time. And with that, we think we can maybe see a reduction in the disparity between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury, for example, is from what it's been historically.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Timur Braziler with Wells Fargo. Timur, please go ahead.

Timur Braziler: Hi. Good morning. I wanted to just get some clarity on the expectation for 4Q to be the NII trough. Is the expectation that 1Q maybe you get some additional margin compression from the asset sensitive balance sheet and then volume makes it up or should 4Q be the trough for NIM compression as well?

Dale Gibbons: Yeah. I believe 4Q can be the trough as well on the NIM side. Yes.

Timur Braziler: Okay. And then -- okay. And then just to maybe to put a finer point on Bernie's question. So for the earnings at risk analysis, I guess, what are you assuming for mortgage rates and kind of mortgage revenues within that earnings at risk analysis?

Dale Gibbons: Yeah. So that we would tail into maybe something that ticks into a 5 by the end of next year. The 5 handle, high 5.

Timur Braziler: Great. And then just last thing for me. Sure.

Kenneth Vecchione: Sorry, I just wanted to add a point to Dale's comments when talking about NIM. He was really -- he was referencing the adjusted NIM. Okay. And so that when you think about it, that's the way I think about it is that adjusted NIM is just net interest income less the deposit costs. That is all going to flow upward or move upward throughout the year. Okay. I just want to make that a little clarification. Sorry, I didn't mean that drop.

Timur Braziler: No. I appreciate that clarification. And then, just lastly for me, just thinking about HQLA deposits in a rate down environment. I'm assuming just the short-term nature, there is going to be a little bit punitive to NII. Just how are you thinking about HQLA levels growing, maybe commensurate with the asset base or asset growth and then what that might look like from a rate perspective?

Dale Gibbons: Yeah. So, we think we're kind of attacked in terms of where we are on what we have in HQLA presently, that number kind of came down a little bit because we've disposed of some of these deposits that were collateralized all with HQLA categories. So from here, again, it gives us latitude to grow our loans commensurate with the growth rate we're going to show in deposits. And so as Ken mentioned, so if we're going to grow deposits $2 billion on average and that means that includes like the fourth quarter decline that's already built into higher growth earlier in those quarters.

And then if you can grow at 75%, 80%, you're going to have $6 billion of deposit growth in that loan growth to match that. And then, the rest of it is going to fall into other categories like HQLA.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Elian with JPMorgan. Please go ahead, Anthony.

Anthony Elian: Hi, everyone. Does your 4Q deposit guide of down $2 billion include any additional paydowns of broker deposits or is the decline really coming from the seasonality of warehouse?

Dale Gibbons: It's really seasonality of warehouse. We expect our broker deposits to be fairly flat.

Anthony Elian: Got it. Okay. And then my follow-up also on deposits. I understand the warehouse is going to seasonally outflow in 4Q, but I guess are there not enough deposit opportunities from other areas of the company to be able to offset that seasonal headwind for this quarter specifically? Thank you.

Kenneth Vecchione: So, the other areas -- other deposit channels do, in fact negate some of that outflow that you're seeing, but the Warehouse Lending Group has a larger -- is a larger contributor to deposit growth. And so -- and the other thing that's happening, as I can't -- I should emphasize this, is that in the warehouse lending group or the industry, we've had several competitors either leave the industry or retreat from it in a significant way. And we are just seeing more inflow than we would normally have expected. And that inflow came in, in Q3 and will kind of reverse out in Q4.

So, that's why it's harder to have the other deposit channels cover that larger inflow for us in Q4, but after these deposits go on a hiatus as we call them, they do come back into Q1, come back starting in Q1 and will help us with our liquidity as we roll forward throughout 2025.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Gary Tenner with D.A. Davidson. Gary, please go ahead.

Gary Tenner: Thanks. Good morning. I appreciate the [forward] [ph] thoughts on the combined NII and ECR costs. I just wonder if you're willing to put a finer time on just the GAAP NII outlook. Obviously, the fourth quarter is a lower guide. Based on your rate forecast for next year, kind of the 25 basis points per quarter, how deep into the year would you think it would be until you could turn dollars of GAAP NII from a bottom?

Kenneth Vecchione: At this point, I think we've given more clarity around 2025 and what we expect. And any other conference call that I've read about so far. And we're going to leave it here as we get -- as we announce our Q4 earnings, we'll get into more detail what that 2025 full year is going to look like. But I think we've given plenty of guidance here on how to kind of construct what to expect in 2025.

Gary Tenner: All right. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Samuel Varga with UBS. Please go ahead, Samuel.

Samuel Varga: Hey, good morning. Dale, I just wanted to touch on the CRA again. I wanted to get your sense for, let's say, if Fed funds normalize around the 3% that a lot of people are pegging, what would be the floor on ECR rates? I understand that the beta at least initially is expected to be near 100%, but how -- at what point does it just level off and that move lower?

Dale Gibbons: Well, I mean if you look to kind of where we were before, when rates were even lower than that during the pandemic, our ECR is mostly bottomed at around 40 basis points. So, there's still a lot of room to continue to push things down. And frankly, I mean, it's all about what's the alternative for money in these. So, it's like, okay, so they have these funds. Is some other financial institution going to be paying more than what a 3% number in your example, I think it will be paying 350, 360? I doubt it because that generally means that funds are available elsewhere.

So, we have these diversified funding sources so that we've got all these channels so that we can meet kind of the credit demand that we have. So, I don't see that there is a number there that we're going to -- it's going to really get sticky in terms of pushing things lower as they were much lower before. And their alternatives for -- and not just for -- but they're alternatives for us, if we can go to other sectors as well and look for funds. So, I mean, they're not going to move that far away from what the market rate for money is in terms of how low it can go.

Samuel Varga: Got it. Thank you for that. And then just my follow-up on the earnings at risk. Can you give us a sense -- obviously, it's hard for us to know exactly what you're assuming on mortgage, but can you give us a sense for I guess what helps more in offsetting the NII compression? Is it the CRAs or the mortgage benefit from AmeriHome on the fee income side?

Dale Gibbons: What offsets the mortgage income on the fee income side. Well, I mean, so I mean they have funds that come from kind of their origination of mortgage servicing, right? So they manufacture these. And depending on what that estimated value is kind of determines what the gain on sale is, and then we have the servicing rights that we value and amortized down. So that's why I look at them more in concert rather than kind of a singular element. I think it was more important in the third quarter where they were they were more, I'll say, bifurcated in terms of the response.

And that was really related to the 50% increase we had in constant prepayment rates that took place in August that we -- that was in excess of, I think, what most models would have captured.

Operator: The next question comes from Chris McGratty with KBW. Please go ahead, Chris.

Christopher McGratty: Great. Thanks for the follow-up. Dale or Ken, longer-term question about ROE potential in a down rate environment. How are you thinking about ROE over the next couple of years?

Dale Gibbons: Yeah. So I don't -- we don't think that our ROE potential is really that dependent upon the rate environment, that is, we're based on the balance sheet that we have, the capital that we need, the spreads that we can obtain that we can continue to efficiently manage the organization. We know our costs have come up for the past couple of years or so. But we believe we're going to get back to an efficiency ratio that begins with the four instead of five on an adjusted basis, i.e., with the deposit costs netted against interest income. And so that should leave us with a ROTCE in the upper teens.

And we believe we're on our way to get there and that's where -- and frankly, that's kind of where we're headed. We're not going to get back to the 20s that we were at before because our leverage is lower with our higher CET1 ratio.

Christopher McGratty: Understood. Thanks a lot, Dale.

Operator: Our next question comes from Jon Arfstrom with RBC. Jon, please go ahead.

Jon Arfstrom: Hey, thanks. Good morning.

Dale Gibbons: Good morning, Jon.

Jon Arfstrom: Ebrahim set me up, I guess. But Ken, I hear you on your 2025 thoughts. Are you more optimistic on ‘25 with the recent rate cuts and the current rate outlook? Is this good for the company generally?

Kenneth Vecchione: Yeah, I am. I'm -- my optimism comes first from the balance sheet, right? We've given that guide of $1 billion for loans and $2 billion on average for the boss, right? And we've been giving that guide for -- boy, for seems like a couple of years now that we continue to do that. And I think we have these credit origination platforms that work well. And over the years, we've added the deposit platforms. And so my confidence is in -- I feel very strongly about the guide that we can achieve the balance sheet.

The overall liability sensitive nature of the bank, I think in a falling rate environment, as Dale talked about, and we're talking about this on an adjusted net interest income basis, exclusive of deposit costs. With rate cuts coming at us, we see that getting better. And so that gives me some confidence as well. Asset quality, as we see it today is stable, knock on wood. And so yeah, I have -- I always believe next year is always going to be more difficult than the previous year, but I always tend to have a higher level of confidence that we can get there.

Jon Arfstrom: Yeah. Okay. You guys, you used the word transitional a lot and I understand that. It feels like this was kind of an unusual quarter for you, and I hear you on transitional, but do you have like a non-GAAP core EPS number in your mind for the quarter? I mean, I think you've got MSR, BOLI, I don't know, gains, lower gain on sale, ECR pressure, there's a lot going on. I guess it would be helpful if you have some kind of a shot at like a repeatable, sustainable quarterly EPS run rate in your mind just because there was a lot, I think, a lot going on here?

Kenneth Vecchione: Yeah, I think that's a fair question. We kind of get to $1.80, which is what was reported. The decline from the mortgage business was offset by gains from the collateralized deposits that -- the securities that help collateralize deposits, and those two things kind of equal out for us. And as we don't think we're going to see that MSR valuation decline in Q4 and as Dale said, that we have other collateralized deposits and settlements that are rolling off where we have gains in Q4 that I think it was Chris who asked the question that we think it's captured in the run rate.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Brandon King with Truist. Brandon, please go ahead.

Brandon King: Hey. Just one for me on core expenses. Stripping out ECR deposit costs, it looks like the growth run rate was around 5% in the quarter. And taking your commentary on deposit costs, next quarter seems like I noticed a higher of 4%. So that 5% to 4% quarterly run rate of growth, is that something we should expect over the foreseeable future or anything temporary within that core expense run rate over the next few quarters?

Kenneth Vecchione: So the way I'd come at it is I think about it as the adjusted efficiency ratio as we come out of Q4 through 2025. which excludes deposit fees. And we think over the course of the year that, that will get at or near 50% by the end of 2025. So we see the adjusted efficiency ratio declining through 2025.

Brandon King: Okay. And within that, any sort of commentary on, as far as the infrastructure build as you continue to grow towards in a CAT 4? Thanks.

Kenneth Vecchione: No, that's embedded in there. That's embedded in there.

Operator: Those are all the questions we have. And so I'll turn the call back to Ken Vecchione for any closing remarks.

Kenneth Vecchione: Thank you all for attending the call. We look forward to talking to you in January about our Q4 results, so thanks again.

Operator: Thank you, everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.

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Zusammenfassung des GuruFocus Artikels über den Smead Value Fund (Trades, Portfolio) – Quartalsbericht Q4 2025

Dieser Artikel basiert auf den Erkenntnissen aus dem N-PORT-Verzeichnis des Smead Value Funds (Trades, Portfolio) für das vierte Quartal 2025 und beleuchtet die strategischen Anlageentscheidungen des Fonds während dieser Periode. Der Fonds wird von Smead Capital Management geleitet und unter der Leitung von Bill Smead und Cole Smead, CFA. Der Fonds investiert in US-amerikanische Large-Cap-Unternehmen und zielt auf eine langfristige Kapitalsteigerung durch konzentrierte Positionen in rund 25-30 Unternehmen ab. Smead Capital Management betreut ein vielfältiges Kundenportfolio, einschließlich Einzelpersonen, Beratern, Family Offices und Institutionen weltweit. Der Fonds verfolgt eine disziplinierte Anlagestrategie, die auf Unternehmen basiert, die spezifische Kriterien erfüllen, wie z. B. starke Wettbewerbsvorteile, hohe Free Cashflow und eine von Aktionären freundliche Unternehmensführung.

Ein wichtiger Punkt ist der Rücktritt von Ovintiv Inc (NYSE:OVV) und Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:DVN), was eine erhebliche Reduzierung der Fonds-Bestände darstellt. Der Smead Value Fund hat alle 3.004.748 Aktien von Ovintiv verkauft und alle 1.284.549 Aktien von Devon abgebaut, was zu einem negativen Einfluss von -2,83 % bzw. -1,04 % auf den Portfolio-Wert von insgesamt 122.597.490 $ bzw. 110.175.080 $ führte.

Umgekehrt hat der Fonds seine Beteiligung an zwei Unternehmen erheblich gesteigert: Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB) und Western Alliance Bancorp (NYSE:WAL). Die Erhöhung bei Fifth Third war beträchtlich, wobei 1.409.563 Aktien hinzugefügt wurden, was einer Steigerung von 99,87 % und einem Portfolio-Einfluss von 1,47 % entspricht, der einen Wert von 122.597.490 $ hat. Western Alliance erlebte eine Steigerung um 16,73 % mit 193.711 Aktien, was den Portfolio-Einfluss um 0,44 % und einen Wert von 110.175.080 $ ausmacht.

Darüber hinaus wurden die Positionen in 24 anderen Aktien reduziert, wobei die Reduzierung von Simon Property Group Inc (NYSE:SPG) und D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE:DHI) bemerkenswert war. Die Reduzierung bei Simon Property Group entsprach einer Verringerung der Aktien um 6,58 % und beeinflusste das Portfolio um -0,44 % und senkte den Aktienpreis auf 180,98 $. Die Reduzierung bei D.R. Horton führte zu einer Verringerung der Aktien um 6,58 % und einem Portfolio-Einfluss von -0,4 %.

Am Ende des vierten Quartals 2025 bestand das Portfolio des Fonds aus 27 Aktien, wobei Simon Property Group eine Top-Position mit 6,96 % darstellte. Zu den anderen bedeutenden Positionen gehörten Merck & Co Inc (NYSE:MRK), American Express Co (NYSE:AXP), Amgen Inc (NASDAQ:AMGN) und D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE:DHI). Das Portfolio konzentriert sich auf acht von elf Branchen: Consumer Cyclical, Financial Services, Energy, Healthcare, Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Industrials und Technology. Die Gesamtstrategie des Fonds konzentriert sich auf unterbewertete Unternehmen mit soliden Fundamentaldaten.

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Zusammenfassung (600 Wörter)

Vaughan Nelson Investment Management, L.P. hat am 15. Januar 2026 einen erheblichen Rückgang seiner Beteiligung an Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) durchgeführt, indem es 1.788.953 Aktien für schätzliche 145,27 Millionen US-Dollar verkaufte. Dies entsprach 1,42 % des Vermögens des Unternehmens, das in 13F-Berichten gemeldet wird, und reduzierte ihre Position auf 0,33 % des Portfolios des Fonds. Der Verkauf hatte den Wert des Fonds zum Ende des Quartals um 156,2 Millionen US-Dollar beeinflusst.

Die Maßnahme erfolgt angesichts der Besorgnis über regionale Banken, insbesondere hinsichtlich der Auswirkungen steigender Zinsen. Während der breitere Markt Optimismus für die Ergebnisse von 2026 zeigt, wirft Vaughans Nelsons Entscheidung Fragen auf. Western Alliance Bancorporation ist eine regionale Bank, die hauptsächlich in Arizona, Kalifornien und Nevada tätig ist und sich auf kommerzielle und Konsumentenbankdienstleistungen konzentriert. Das Unternehmen verfügt über eine solide Bilanz mit einer Ausschüttungsrendite von 1,73 % und einem Umsatz von 3,4 Milliarden US-Dollar.

Nach dem Verkauf sind NASDAQ:GOOGL (Alphabet), NASDAQ:NVDA (Nvidia), NASDAQ:AMZN (Amazon), NYSE:LLY (Lilly), NASDAQ:MSFT (Microsoft) und NASDAQ:META (Meta) die Top-Positionen des Portfolios des Fonds. Diese Unternehmen machen 3,0 % und 2,9 % der Vermögenswerte des Fonds aus.

Mehrere Faktoren haben wahrscheinlich Vaughans Nelsons Entscheidung beeinflusst. Die Bewertung der Vermögenswerte von Western Alliance durch das Unternehmen verbessert sich, wie durch einen Rückgang des Verhältnisses von nicht performenden Krediten und verwerteten Vermögenswerten zum Gesamtvolumen gezeigt wird. Allerdings kann auch die Portfoliomanagementstrategie des Investment Managers eine Rolle spielen, da es mehrere große Bankaktien im Portfolio des Unternehmens gibt. Der geografische Fokus von Western Alliance, der sich auf die West- und Südwesten der USA konzentriert, könnte ebenfalls eine Überlegung gewesen sein.

Der Zeitpunkt des Verkaufs ist besonders bemerkenswert, angesichts der jüngsten Entwicklungen im Bereich der regionalen Banken. Andere regionale Banken haben stärkere als erwartet Ergebnisse gemeldet und gezeigt, dass sie widerstandsfähig gegenüber den wirtschaftlichen Widrigkeiten sind. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass Vaughans Nelsons Entscheidung nicht unbedingt auf ein grundlegendes Problem mit Western Alliance selbst zurückzuführen ist, sondern eher auf eine strategische Anpassung im Rahmen einer umfassenderen Portfolio-Strategie.

Der Verkauf unterstreicht auch eine allgemeinere Anlagestrategie: die Aufrechterhaltung eines diversifizierten Portfolios, um Risiken zu mindern. Selbst wenn eine bestimmte Investition schlecht abschneidet, kann ein gut diversifiziertes Portfolio Verluste absorbieren und die Gesamtleistung aufrechterhalten. Der Bankensektor insgesamt scheint sich für ein kontinuierliches Wachstum positioniert zu haben, insbesondere unter Berücksichtigung des Potenzials für Erträge durch Dividenden.

Der Artikel enthält auch ein Werbeelement, das andeutet, dass Investoren möglicherweise eine lukrative Gelegenheit verpassen, wenn sie nicht in Nvidia, Apple und Netflix investieren. Es werden historische Beispiele für die Empfehlung "Double Down" verwendet, um die potenziellen Renditen zu veranschaulichen, die erzielt werden könnten. Howard Smith hat eine Short-Position auf Nvidia und andere verwandte Optionen.

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Here’s a summary of the text, followed by a German translation:

Summary (approx. 500 words)

The article discusses the importance of looking beyond a company's cash position to determine its true investment potential. While a substantial cash balance often indicates financial strength, it can also mask underlying weaknesses like poor business models, limited growth opportunities, or inconsistent cash flow. The text highlights three stocks – Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), First Financial Bankshares (FFIN), and Datadog (DDOG) – illustrating a selective investment approach.

Stocks to Sell:

• Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL): Despite a reported $963 million in net cash, the analysis expresses caution. Revenue growth has slowed to 9.8% over the past two years, falling short of its peers. An expected worsening of its efficiency ratio, coupled with declining profitability (EPS down 5.8% annually), suggests underlying challenges. The stock trades at a relatively low 1.3x forward P/B ratio.

• First Financial Bankshares (FFIN): Similar to WAL, FFIN boasts a significant $979.6 million in net cash, representing 23% of its market capitalization. However, the bank's growth has been lackluster at 5.8% annually and net interest income growth has also been slow. EPS growth has lagged behind the average, impacting its valuation (2.3x forward P/B).

Stock to Buy:

• Datadog (DDOG): DDOG is presented as a strong buy. The company's robust annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 26.5% indicates strong customer relationships and a thriving software platform focused on cloud monitoring and security. Projected revenue growth of 21.8% for the next year and user-friendly software contribute to rapid customer acquisition cost recovery. Trading at a reasonable 12.7x forward price-to-sales ratio, DDOG represents a compelling investment opportunity.

Overall Investment Philosophy:

The article advocates for a more discerning approach to investing, suggesting that investors should look for companies offering quality and potential at a lower price compared to heavily concentrated market segments. It references a past performance list – including Nvidia and Kadant – that demonstrates the power of identifying undervalued, high-quality stocks, particularly those with a strong track record. StockStory is presented as a tool for investors to analyze and identify these overlooked opportunities.

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German Translation (approx. 500 words)

Zusammenfassung (ca. 500 Wörter)

Der Artikel diskutiert die Bedeutung, über die Cash-Position eines Unternehmens hinauszublicken, um sein wahres Anlagepotenzial zu bestimmen. Während ein beträchtlicher Cash-Stand ein Zeichen finanzieller Stärke sein kann, kann er auch zugrunde liegende Schwächen wie schlechte Geschäftsmodelle, begrenzte Wachstumsgelegenheiten oder unregelmäßige Cashflows verbergen. Der Text beleuchtet drei Aktien – Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) und Datadog (DDOG) – und illustriert einen selektiven Anlageansatz.

Aktien zum Verkaufen:

• Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL): Trotz eines gemeldeten Netto-Cash-Bestands von 963 Millionen Dollar wird Vorsicht geboten. Das Umsatzwachstum ist auf 9,8 % in den letzten zwei Jahren gesunken und liegt hinter dem seiner Wettbewerber. Eine erwartete Verschlechterung des Effizienzfaktors, kombiniert mit sinkenden Gewinnmargen (EPS um 5,8 % jährlich), deutet auf zugrunde liegende Herausforderungen hin. Die Aktie wird zu einem relativ niedrigen Verhältnis von 1,3x zu Forward P/B bewertet.

• First Financial Bankshares (FFIN): Ähnlich wie WAL verfügt FFIN über einen erheblichen Netto-Cash-Besitz von 979,6 Millionen Dollar, was 23 % seiner Marktkapitalisierung ausmacht. Allerdings ist das Wachstum der Bank mit 5,8 % jährlich und das Wachstum des Nettozinsertrags ebenfalls verlangsamt. Das EPS-Wachstum hat hinter dem Durchschnitt zurückgeblieben und hat seine Bewertung (2,3x zu Forward P/B) beeinflusst.

Aktie zum Kaufen:

• Datadog (DDOG): DDOG wird als klare Kaufempfehlung dargestellt. Das Unternehmen weist ein robustes jährliches wiederkehrendes Umsatzwachstum (ARR) von 26,5 % auf, was starke Kundenbeziehungen und eine florierende Softwareplattform zur Überwachung und Sicherheit in der Cloud widerspiegelt. Das prognostizierte Umsatzwachstum von 21,8 % für das kommende Jahr und die benutzerfreundliche Software tragen zur schnellen Erholung der Kundenakquisitionskosten bei. Mit einem angemessenen Verhältnis von 12,7x zu Forward Price-to-Sales handelt DDOG eine attraktive Investitionsmöglichkeit.

Allgemeine Anlagestrategie:

Der Artikel plädiert für einen differenzierteren Ansatz beim Investieren und argumentiert, dass Investoren nach Unternehmen mit Qualität und Potenzial zu einem niedrigeren Preis suchen sollten, verglichen mit stark konzentrierten Marktsegmenten. Er verweist auf eine vergangene Performance-Liste – darunter Nvidia und Kadant – die die Kraft der Identifizierung unterbewerteter, qualitativ hochwertiger Aktien, insbesondere solcher mit einer starken Erfolgsbilanz, demonstriert. StockStory wird als Werkzeug für Investoren vorgestellt, um diese übersehenen Chancen zu analysieren und zu finden.

Translation Notes:

• I've aimed for a natural and fluent German translation, prioritizing clarity and accuracy.
• I've retained key terminology from the original English text where appropriate.

Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!

Okay, here's a summary of the text, followed by a German translation, staying within the 600-word limit:

Summary (approx. 550 words)

Davis Asset Management significantly increased its stake in First American Financial Corporation (FAF) during the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a notable shift in the firm’s investment strategy. The increase amounted to 811,642 shares, representing approximately 1.82% of Davis Asset Management’s total assets under management (AUM), which stood at $2.81 billion at the time. This acquisition brought the fund’s total holding to 1,100,000 shares, valued at $70.66 million.

The move highlights a bullish outlook on FAF, particularly considering the stock’s performance. Prior to the increase, FAF shares had been underperforming the S&P 500, trading at $64.01 and having risen only 3.23% over the past year.

The increase itself was substantial, building upon a prior investment of 288,358 shares in Q2, and culminating in a massive jump to over one million shares by the end of Q3. This reflects a significant increase in Davis Asset Management's confidence in the company's future prospects. The timing of the acquisition is also key: FAF shares had recently hit a 52-week low of $53.09 in July, and the firm capitalized on this opportunity.

First American Financial Corporation operates within the title insurance and specialty insurance sector, providing services and products primarily to the real estate market. It offers title insurance, escrow, settlement, and risk mitigation services – essentially supporting the entire real estate transaction process. The company has a strong, established presence in the U.S. real estate settlement services industry and leverages a robust network and data resources.

The investment firm's strategy appears to be betting on a potential recovery in the housing market. First American’s Q3 results showed a significant revenue increase (41% year-over-year to $2 billion), and management believes the company is at the beginning of a new real estate upturn. Davis Asset Management's large increase in its FAF position strongly supports this view.

This investment positions FAF as the 6th largest holding within Davis Asset Management’s portfolio, representing roughly 2.52% of the fund’s overall equity holdings. Davis Asset Management's overall AUM is substantially larger, with other top holdings concentrated in NASDAQ-listed stocks like Meta (Facebook), Google (Alphabet), and Walt Disney (WAL), highlighting a diversified approach.

The move was driven by a $52.96 million valuation change for the quarter and reflects a growing investor sentiment regarding the direction of the real estate market. The fact that First American's dividend yield of 3.6% also contributes to its appeal adds another layer to the investment decision.

German Translation (approx. 600 words)

Zusammenfassung

Davis Asset Management hat im dritten Quartal 2025 einen erheblichen Anstieg seiner Beteiligung an First American Financial Corporation (FAF) verzeichnet, was einen deutlichen Wandel in der Strategie des Fonds widerspiegelt. Die Erhöhung betrug 811.642 Aktien, was etwa 1,82 % des Gesamtvermögens unter Management (AUM) von Davis Asset Management in Höhe von 2,81 Milliarden US-Dollar darstellt. Diese Akquisition brachte das Fondsbesitz auf 1.100.000 Aktien, die zu einem Wert von 70,66 Millionen US-Dollar am 30. September 2025 bewertet wurden.

Der Schritt spiegelt eine positive Einschätzung von FAF wider, insbesondere angesichts der Performance des Aktienkurses. Vor der Erhöhung hatte der FAF-Kurs unter der S&P 500 gelegen, bei 64,01 US-Dollar und einem Anstieg von lediglich 3,23 % im vergangenen Jahr.

Die Erhöhung selbst war bedeutend, basierend auf einer vorherigen Investition von 288.358 Aktien im zweiten Quartal, und gipfelte in einem massiven Anstieg auf über eine Million Aktien bis zum Ende des dritten Quartals. Dies spiegelt eine signifikante Zunahme des Vertrauens von Davis Asset Management in die Zukunftsaussichten des Unternehmens wider. Auch der Zeitpunkt der Akquisition ist entscheidend: Der FAF-Kurs hatte zuvor einen 52-Wochen-Tiefststand von 53,09 US-Dollar im Juli erreicht, und das Unternehmen nutzte diese Gelegenheit.

First American Financial Corporation ist im Bereich der Titelversicherung und Spezialversicherungen tätig und bietet Dienstleistungen und Produkte hauptsächlich für den Immobilienmarkt an. Es bietet Titelversicherung, Escrow, Abwicklung und Risikominderungsdienste – im Wesentlichen unterstützt es den gesamten Immobilientransaktionsprozess. Das Unternehmen verfügt über eine starke und etablierte Präsenz in der US-amerikanischen Industrie für Immobilienfinanzdienstleistungen und nutzt ein robustes Netzwerk und Datenressourcen.

Die Strategie der Investmentfirma setzt auf eine mögliche Erholung des Wohnungsmarktes. Die Q3-Ergebnisse von First American zeigten einen deutlichen Umsatzanstieg (41 % im Jahresvergleich zu 2 Milliarden US-Dollar) und die Geschäftsleitung glaubt, dass das Unternehmen sich am Anfang einer neuen Immobilienwelle befindet. Die grosse Erhöhung von Davis Asset Management’s FAF-Position unterstützt diese Ansicht stark.

Diese Investition positioniert FAF als die 6. grösste Beteiligung im Portfolio von Davis Asset Management, die etwa 2,52 % der gesamten Aktienanlagen des Fonds repräsentiert. Davis Asset Management's Gesamt-AUM ist erheblich grösser, wobei andere grosse Positionen in NASDAQ-notierten Aktien wie Meta (Facebook), Google (Alphabet) und Walt Disney (WAL) konzentriert sind, was einen diversifizierten Ansatz zeigt.

Der Schritt wurde durch eine Wertänderung von 52,96 Millionen US-Dollar für das Quartal und spiegelt eine wachsende Anlegerstimmung in Bezug auf die Entwicklung des Immobilienmarktes wider. Der Fact, dass die Dividendenrendite von First American von 3,6 % ebenfalls zum Anreiz gehört, trägt weitere Schichten zur Anlageentscheidung bei.

Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!

Ehemaliger Chef-Risikomanager einer der 25 größten US-Banken und Cybersecurity-Experte Beitritt zum Verwaltungsrat

PHOENIX, 11. Dezember 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Western Alliance Bancorporation (NYSE: WAL) gab heute die Ernennung von zwei renommierten Führungskräften zu ihrem Verwaltungsrat bekannt, was die Organisation mit Blick auf ein Vermögen von 100 Milliarden US-Dollar weiter stärkt.

Dem Verwaltungsrat gehören nun Dr. Michael Papay, eine bekannte Cybersecurity-Expertin und ehemalige Leiterin für Technologie-Risiko und Informationssicherheit bei American Express, sowie Herr Clarke Starnes III, der ehemalige Chef-Risikomanager bei Truist, einer der größten Banken der Nation mit über 500 Milliarden US-Dollar.

“Dies ist ein Beweis für den starken Aufwärtstrend und das enorme Potenzial von Western Alliance, dass diese beiden talentierten Führungskräfte sich zu diesem entscheidenden Zeitpunkt unserem Verwaltungsrat anschließen”, sagte Bruce D. Beach, Vorstandsvorsitzender des Verwaltungsrats von Western Alliance Bancorporation. “Ihre jeweilige Erfahrung wird Western Alliance dabei unterstützen, sich dem Überschreiten der Marke von 100 Milliarden US-Dollar zu nähern.”

Kenneth A. Vecchione, Präsident, CEO und Direktor von Western Alliance Bancorporation, fügte hinzu: “Während wir unsere National Commercial Bank Strategy zur Erreichung einer kontinuierlichen, starken Leistung für unsere Aktionäre und Kunden umsetzen, bereiten wir uns weiterhin sorgfältig darauf vor, dass unser Unternehmen zu einer Großbank wird. Sowohl Mike als auch Clarke haben wertvolle Einblicke und Erfahrungen, die sie mit unserem Verwaltungsrat und der Western Alliance Management teilen können, und wir freuen uns sehr, sie in unserer Organisation begrüßen zu dürfen.”

Über die neuen Aufsitzenden

Dr. Michael Papay: Dr. Papay ist eine bekannte Cybersecurity- und Technologie-Risiko-Expertin mit einer umfangreichen Karriere in der Verteidigungs- und Finanzbranche. Sie hat wichtige Cybersecurity-Programme für Fortune 100 Unternehmen geleitet und US-Agenturen wie Homeland Security, Defense, FBI und Federal Reserve beraten. Aktuell ist sie Advisory Board Chair und Chief Information Security Officer für Rohirrim, einem KI-Unternehmen, das sich auf Domain-Plattformen spezialisiert hat. Zuvor war sie Executive Vice President, Technology Risk and Information Security bei American Express.

“Ich freue mich, dem Verwaltungsrat von Western Alliance beizutreten, einer der angesehensten Banken im Land mit einer nachgewiesenen Geschichte von Agilität und Unternehmergeist, während gleichzeitig hervorragender Kundenservice geleistet wird”, sagte Dr. Papay. “Mit dem fortgesetzten, gut geplanten Wachstumskurs der Organisation freue ich mich darauf, mein Fachwissen in Technologie und Cybersicherheit für die Bank und alle ihre Stakeholder zu nutzen.”

Clarke R. Starnes III: Herr Starnes bringt jahrzehntelange Erfahrung in Risikomanagement, Prüfung, Compliance und Regulierungsmanagement sowie Unternehmensstrategie und Kapitalplanung mit. Er war Chef-Risikomanager bei Truist bis 2024 und zuvor CRO bei BB&T seit 2009. Herr Starnes war auch stellvertretender Vorstandsvorsitzender von Truist von 2022-2024. Er gilt als einer der erfahrensten Chef-Risikomanager unter den Top 25 US-Banken.

Herr Starnes sagte: “Als langjähriger Banken-Executive habe ich beobachtet, wie Western Alliance weiterhin beeindruckendes Wachstum erzielt, während gleichzeitig die Menschen, einschließlich der Kunden, immer in den Mittelpunkt gestellt werden. Ich freue mich darauf, mein Wissen als Verwaltungsratmitglied einzubringen, um dem Unternehmen zu helfen, auch weiterhin hervorragende Leistungen zu erbringen, während es skaliert.”

Über Western Alliance Bancorporation

Western Alliance Bancorporation (NYSE:WAL) ist eines der führenden Bankunternehmen des Landes. Zu ihren wichtigsten Tochtergesellschaften gehört Western Alliance Bank, Mitglied der FDIC, eine führende nationale Bank für Unternehmen, die Kunden an erste Stelle setzt, liefert maßgeschneiderte Geschäftskontore und Verbraucherprodukte, gestützt von außergewöhnlichem, personalisiertem Service und spezifischer Expertise in über 30 Branchen und Sektoren. Mit 90 Milliarden US-Dollar an Vermögenswerten und Niederlassungen im ganzen Land hat sich Western Alliance als eine der Top US-Banken von American Banker und Bank Director seit 2016 etabliert. Im Jahr 2025 wurde Western Alliance Bancorporation auf der Extel’s All-America Executive Team Midcap Banks Liste unter den Top 2 für Best CEO, Best CFO und Best Company Board of Directors. Für weitere Informationen zu Angeboten, Tochtergesellschaften und Geschäftsbereichen besuchen Sie www.westernalliancebank.com oder folgen Sie Western Alliance Bank auf LinkedIn.