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The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.58%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.91%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.64%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.70%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.79%.

Stocks are seeing support again today as reports circulate that an interim US-Iran peace agreement could be signed as early as this weekend, ending the military hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and ending the US blockade on Iran and its oil exports.  Negotiations would then begin on the more intractable issues, such as sanctions against Iran, the release of $24 billion of frozen Iranian assets, and the resolution of Iranian nuclear issues.  However, Iran said its leaders still need to make a final decision on the proposed interim peace deal.Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.

Stocks surged on Thursday after President Trump said he canceled planned military strikes against Iran, citing "discussions" with Iranian leadership.  He added that a "time and place of the signing" of a negotiated end to the war would "be announced shortly," and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz "will remain in full force and effect until this transaction is finalized."

WTI crude oil prices (CLN26) are down more than -3% today on hopes for a near-term US-Iran agreement and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In positive news for stocks, the University of Michigan’s June US Consumer Sentiment Index rose +4.1 to 48.9, which was stronger than expectations for a rise to 46.0.  Also, the University of Michigan’s June 1-year inflation expectations rate eased to +4.6% from +4.8% in May, and was weaker than expectations of +4.9%.  The June 5-10 year inflation expectations rate eased to +3.4% from +3.9% in May, weaker than expectations of +3.8%.

The markets are discounting a zero percent chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.9%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +1.12%.  Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +2.81%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -3 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +1.6 bp at 4.477%.  T-notes are seeing weakness today as the 10-year inflation expectations rate is up +0.1 bp at 2.306%, despite today’s drop in oil prices.  The T-note market remains worried about inflation pressures, which are likely to remain sticky even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.  The T-note market has some carry-over weakness from Thursday, when demand was lackluster for the Treasury’s 30-year bond auction.

European government bond yields are trading lower.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -3.3 bp at 2.999%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -6.6 bp at 4.839%.

On Thursday, the ECB, as expected, raised the deposit facility rate by +25 bp to 2.25% from 2.00% and said, "The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth." Swaps are discounting a 37% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.

US Stock Movers

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX), doing business as SpaceX, started trading today near $160 per share, up nearly +20% from Thursday’s IPO of $135.  The IPO was more than four times oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for the stock.  A strong showing by SpaceX today would be positive for investor sentiment and could help the upcoming IPOs for AI companies Anthropic and OpenAI.

Space-linked stocks are trading lower despite the favorable SpaceX debut, with EchoStar (SATS) down more than -9%, and Rocket Lab (RKLB) down more than -7%.

Chip stocks recovered from early losses and are trading mostly higher.  The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up +2.25% today, adding to Thursday’s sharp rally of +8.39%.  Thursday’s rally was sparked by signs that AI spending is continuing after Oracle reported quarterly capital expenditures that were higher than expected, driven by increased data center spending.  Chip leaders today include Arm Holdings (ARM)with a gain of more than +10%, and gains of more than +5% in Qualcomm (QCOM), AMD (AMD), and Intel (INTC).

Adobe (ADBE) is down more than -7% after CFO Dan Durn said he would leave the company on June 15, following news earlier this year that Adobe’s CEO would resign.  The Adobe news put continued downward pressure on software stocks, which were undercut on Thursday by negative earnings news from Oracle (ORCL).  Autodesk (ADSK) is down more than -3% and Intuit (INTU) is down by more than -2%.

Airline stocks are seeing continued support after oil prices today moved lower, adding to Thursday’s decline.  United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are all up more than +3%.

Energy stocks and service providers are trading higher with today’s continued sell-off in crude oil prices.  Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Valero (VLO), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are all up more than +2%.

Astera Labs (ALAB), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius Group (NBIS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), and Teradyn (TER) are seeing support today after Nasdaq announced on Thursday that those stocks will join the Nasdaq 100 Index, effective at the market open on June 22. Stocks leaving the Nasdaq 100 include Charter Communications (CHTR), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), Insmed (INSM), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), and Zscaler (ZS).

Travelers (TRV) is seeing downward pressure after Barclays cut its rating on the stock to underweight from equal-weight due to a downbeat outlook for profits in the property and casualty sector.

Earnings Reports(6/12/2026)

America's Car-Mart Inc/TX (CRMT), Atlantic International Corp (ATLN), Friedman Industries Inc (FRD), Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA), Pioneer Bancorp Inc/NY (PBFS), Richtech Robotics Inc (RR), Seneca Foods Corp (SENEB), Whitestone REIT (WSR).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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[Abstract Financial Data Visualization with Digital Stock Market Graphs] AlexSecret

Wall Street’s major market averages are higher on Friday as traders watch the highly anticipated SpaceX (SPCX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPCX]) officially start trading.

The blue chip Dow (DJI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DJI]) was +0.5% the benchmark S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]) was 0.2%, and the tech focused Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COMP:IND]) was +0.1%.

From a sector-by-sector perspective, nine of the 11 S&P segments were higher, with energy leading the charge. At the other end of the spectrum, consumer discretionary has struggled the most so far in the session.

SpaceX's (SPCX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPCX]) long-awaited initial public offering happened on Friday, as shares officially opened [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602910-spacex-jumps-11-in-historic-ipo-as-elon-musk-becomes-worlds-first-trillionaire] on the Nasdaq at $150, for a gain of 11%.

Treasury yields moved higher. The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (US2Y [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US2Y]) added 2 basis points to 4.08%. At the same time, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US10Y]) climbed by 2 basis points to 4.48%, and the U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (US30Y [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/US30Y]) advanced 2 basis points to 4.97%.

As for stocks that were on the move, shares of Arm Holdings (ARM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ARM]) advanced by 7.8%, while shares of Adobe (ADBE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADBE]) fell 6.8%.

MORE ON MARKETS

* Dividend Roundup: Microsoft, Philip Morris, Coca-Cola, Target, and more [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602911-dividend-roundup-microsoft-philip-morris-coca-cola-target-and-more]
* Prediction market bets rise on Elon Musk combining Tesla and SpaceX [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602974-prediction-market-bets-rise-on-elon-musk-combining-tesla-and-spacex]
* Is SpaceX worth $1.8T? SA analysts weigh In ahead of the blockbuster IPO [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602930-is-spacex-worth-18t-sa-analysts-weigh-in-ahead-of-the-blockbuster-ipo]
* Tech sector delivers one of the best earnings quarters since 2001 [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602954-tech-sector-delivers-one-of-the-best-earnings-quarters-since-2001]
* Trump halts Iran strikes and signals major Middle East agreement nearing completion [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602713-trump-halts-iran-strikes-and-signals-major-middle-east-agreement-nearing-completion]

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Is ARM a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Arm Holdings plc on Long-term Investing's Substack by Sanjiv. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on ARM. Arm Holdings plc's share was trading at $342.23 as of June 11th. ARM's trailing and forward P/E were 402.62 and 156.25 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.Astera Labs (ALAB) Expands Scorpio Network Switch Portfolio With High-Performance X-Series 320

Photo by JESHOOTS.COM on Unsplash

Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services. ARM is positioned as a central beneficiary of the accelerating shift toward AI-driven computing following its "ARM Everywhere" event, where it unveiled a new AI-optimized CPU architecture designed for agentic workloads with superior power efficiency and performance.

Read More: 15 AI Stocks That Are Quietly Making Investors Rich

Read More: Undervalued AI Stock Poised For Massive Gains: 10000% Upside Potential

The company, historically dominant in mobile computing with an estimated 99% share of smartphone CPUs and over 350 billion chips shipped, is now pivoting from being primarily an intellectual property licensor to a direct participant in chip design and system-level silicon through its new ARM AGI CPU initiative. This marks a strategic expansion beyond its traditional royalty model, which has historically captured only a small fraction of value despite powering leading chip designers such as Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Apple.

ARM's Compute Subsystems and Neoverse platform already underpin hyperscaler adoption, with over 1.25 billion cores deployed across cloud and edge workloads. The newly announced AGI CPU, built on a 3nm TSMC process with 136 Neoverse V3 cores and targeting 2x performance per watt versus x86, is designed to address surging AI infrastructure demand, where agentic AI workloads are increasing CPU core requirements by up to 4x and global data center power needs could reach 68 gigawatts by 2027.

Strategic partnerships with Meta and OpenAI reinforce ARM's positioning in next-generation AI clusters potentially scaling to 5 gigawatts. Management expects cloud AI royalties to expand from $3 billion today to $100 billion, with total addressable market exceeding $1 trillion signaling multi-year re-rating opportunity and upside as ARM captures more value across the AI compute stack.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Arm Holdings plc (ARM) by Stock Analysis Compilation in December 2024, which highlighted Arm's royalty-led diversification across mobile, cloud, and automotive with Armv9-driven pricing power. ARM's stock price has appreciated by approximately 159.06% since our coverage. Sanjiv shares a similar view but emphasizes ARM's strategic pivot into AI chip design, AGI CPUs, hyperscaler partnerships, and a near $1 trillion TAM expansion opportunity.

Story Continues

Arm Holdings plc is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 46 hedge fund portfolios held ARM at the end of the first quarter which was 33 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ARM as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ARM and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

Disclosure: None.

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In early trading on Friday, shares of Arm Holdings topped the list of the day's best performing components of the Nasdaq 100 index, trading up 6.3%. Year to date, Arm Holdings registers a 232.8% gain.

And the worst performing Nasdaq 100 component thus far on the day is KLAC, trading down 90.0%. KLAC is lower by about 80.2% looking at the year to date performance.

Two other components making moves today are Adobe, trading down 7.8%, and Seagate Technology Holdings, trading up 4.2% on the day.

VIDEO: Nasdaq 100 Movers: KLAC, ARM

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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Track your investments for FREE with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.

Arm Holdings (NasdaqGS:ARM) is facing a newly disclosed U.S. Federal Trade Commission investigation into its semiconductor licensing practices. The inquiry comes as Arm expands from its traditional IP licensing model into chip manufacturing, drawing fresh antitrust scrutiny. Regulators are examining whether Arm's licensing approach may restrict third party access, even as the company promotes broad support for its new AGI CPU platform.

For readers following NasdaqGS:ARM, this shifts the focus from product announcements to regulatory risk. Arm's core business centers on licensing chip architectures that power a wide range of devices, and that model is now under closer official review. The timing coincides with Arm's push further into producing chips, which could influence how large customers and partners view future contracts.

For investors, the FTC investigation adds a new layer of uncertainty alongside usual product and competitive factors. The outcome, scope and duration are unknown, and the questions around third party license access are closely tied to Arm's business design. This will be an area to watch as more information from regulators and the company emerges over time.

Wall Street's queuing for one rocket. While SpaceX counts down to its IPO, other companies tied to the new space race are already in orbit. → 20 Compelling Space Companies watchlist · Global Space Race Investing Ideas screener · Scan the sector by valuation on Rocket Lab's valuation page.NasdaqGS:ARM 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Is Arm Holdings's balance sheet strong enough for future acquisitions? Dive into our detailed financial health analysis.

The FTC investigation goes to the heart of how Arm monetizes its CPU designs, so it is more than a background legal issue. Regulators are focusing on whether Arm's move into chip manufacturing and its AGI CPU platform could change the balance of power with existing licensees, especially large customers that also compete in data center and AI chips such as Nvidia, AMD and Intel. Any finding that Arm restricted, or could restrict, third party access might result in fines, behavioral remedies around licensing terms, or limits on how closely its own silicon business can compete with customers. That would matter for long-term contract structures and royalty economics. The company has highlighted endorsements from more than 50 ecosystem partners and over US$2b of committed AGI CPU demand through fiscal 2028, so an extended investigation could also influence how quickly those commitments turn into revenue if counterparties decide to slow or renegotiate deals while the regulatory picture is unresolved.

Story Continues

How This Fits Into The Arm Holdings Narrative

The inquiry directly touches on the licensing and royalty model that analysts see as central to Arm's AI data center and AGI CPU opportunity, so a clear resolution could support confidence in that catalyst. At the same time, the risk of licensing restrictions or mandated changes to contract terms adds to the execution and margin pressure already flagged around expansion into new compute segments and own-chip sales. The narrative focuses heavily on product adoption, royalty rates and AI CPU demand, while this specific antitrust angle on Arm entering manufacturing may not be fully reflected in those long-term assumptions.

Knowing what a company is worth starts with understanding its story. Check out one of the top narratives in the Simply Wall St Community for Arm Holdings to help decide what it's worth to you.

The Risks and Rewards Investors Should Consider

⚠️ Risk that the FTC imposes fines, licensing changes or conduct remedies that reduce Arm's pricing power or limit how aggressively it can scale its own AGI CPU and silicon operations. ⚠️ Risk that large customers reassess or delay AGI CPU deployments and longer term contracts while the investigation is ongoing, adding uncertainty to already high expectations and a rich valuation. 🎁 Reward if the investigation closes without major remedies, which could remove a key overhang on Arm's licensing model at the same time as AI data center demand and AGI CPU commitments remain in place. 🎁 Reward from regulators potentially validating Arm's open ecosystem claims, which could reinforce trust with partners across smartphones, edge AI and data centers and support future design wins versus rivals such as x86 suppliers.

What To Watch Going Forward

From here, focus on three things. First, any FTC updates on the scope, timeline or potential remedies, including signals around licensing conduct. Second, commentary from Arm's largest customers and ecosystem partners on whether their AGI CPU plans or broader licensing relationships are changing. Third, how management frames regulatory risk on upcoming earnings calls, especially against a backdrop of high P/E multiples and recent share price volatility tied to AI and semiconductor sentiment. Together, these factors will shape how much regulatory overhang investors need to factor into Arm's long-term AI CPU and royalty story.

To ensure you're always in the loop on how the latest news impacts the investment narrative for Arm Holdings, head to the community page for Arm Holdings to never miss an update on the top community narratives.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ARM.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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Investing.com -- SpaceX begins trading on Nasdaq today under the ticker SPCX, targeting a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion and seeking to raise $75 billion, more than 2.5 times the previous record set by Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) in 2019. The scale alone rewrites the record books. But the more interesting argument for "unique" runs deeper than the headline number.

SpaceX spent over two decades as a private company, accumulating more than $10 billion in venture capital funding while remaining almost entirely inaccessible to ordinary investors. That changes today for the first time. A wave of institutional holders, including Founders Fund, DFJ, D1 Capital, Fidelity, and Thrive Capital, along with thousands of early employees, are reaching their first genuine exit opportunity after years of holding illiquid paper.

The offering structure breaks convention further. SpaceX has allocated up to 30% of the IPO to retail investors through Robinhood, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, SoFi, and E*TRADE, roughly triple the 5 to 10% standard for major public offerings. Demand has reportedly reached $150 billion against $75 billion in available shares.

Nasdaq changed its rules specifically to allow SpaceX to join the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days, down from the previous three-month minimum. BNP Paribas estimates Nasdaq 100 inclusion alone will generate approximately $8 billion in forced passive buying within the first month of listing, with total passive fund purchases potentially reaching $30 billion.

The February 2026 merger with xAI means investors are purchasing exposure to launch infrastructure, satellite broadband, and AI compute in a single instrument, a combination with no real precedent in public market history.

Analysts estimate the offering will create approximately 4,000 new millionaires, from senior executives to engineers and support staff who received equity over years of employment.

Below, I discuss the most important points for those looking to buy into the IPO.

Three Businesses, One Ticker: SpaceX’s Revenue Structure

The $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue that headlines the S-1 filing carries an important caveat: it is the product of common-control accounting, a GAAP convention that allows companies with a shared controlling shareholder to retroactively consolidate their financials.

Because Elon Musk controlled SpaceX, xAI, and X (the platform formerly known as Twitter) simultaneously, the S-1 presents all three as a single entity for all periods shown, including 2023 and 2024, even though the formal merger was only completed in February 2026. The revenue growth story investors are reading covers three distinct businesses that were independently run until six months ago.

Story Continues

Revenue

At the segment level, the company is three businesses with radically different financial profiles operating under the same stock price.

Starlink, the satellite broadband service, is the financial engine. It generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, representing 61% of the total, and produced $4.4 billion in operating income at a margin of approximately 39%. Subscriber growth has been extraordinary: from 2.3 million users at the end of 2023 to 8.9 million by the end of 2025 and 10.3 million by the first quarter of 2026.

That growth has come at a cost to average revenue per user, which declined from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 by Q1 2026, reflecting SpaceX’s deliberate strategy of trading unit economics for global penetration. In May 2026, SpaceX raised Starlink plan prices for the first time, signaling a potential shift toward monetizing its installed base.Starlink

The Space segment, which encompasses rocket launches for commercial and government customers, generated $4.1 billion in 2025 revenue but ran a $657 million operating loss, almost entirely driven by the $3 billion invested in Starship research and development.

Operationally, the launch business is dominant globally: SpaceX completed approximately 165 Falcon 9 launches in 2025 and holds roughly 90% of the global commercial launch share by mass-to-orbit. Of those launches, fewer than half were for external customers. The majority served Starlink internally.

The AI segment, incorporating xAI’s computing infrastructure, the Grok large language model, and X’s advertising and subscription revenue, generated $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue against a $6.4 billion operating loss.

Of SpaceX’s $20.7 billion in total capex in 2025, $12.7 billion went to AI infrastructure, including the COLOSSUS data center in Memphis, currently the largest coherent AI training cluster on earth. In Q1 2026 alone, the AI segment produced an operating loss of $2.47 billion.Revenue Segment

The summary picture: Starlink is profitable and growing rapidly. The Space segment is deliberately loss-making, investing in Starship, the infrastructure that could reduce launch costs by an order of magnitude. The AI segment is consuming Starlink’s profits in full and then some. Without the xAI merger, SpaceX posted a $791 million net profit in 2024. With it, the company posted a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025 and a $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026 alone.

The IPO prospectus also discloses $29.1 billion in total long-term debt as of March 2026, of which $20 billion is a short-term bridge loan that must be repaid within six months of a successful listing.

A fourth dimension not reflected in the current financial structure is the possibility of an eventual merger between SpaceX and Tesla. Wolfe Research notes that prediction markets are pricing in a 56% probability that a combination will complete before mid-2027. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives places the probability at 80% or higher.

The strategic logic centers on consolidated voting control for Musk, the AI synergies between Tesla’s autonomous-driving data and SpaceX’s compute infrastructure, and the combined capital base that a single entity would command. China is the primary regulatory obstacle, given that US defense and space companies face broad restrictions on operating there, and Tesla derives approximately 19% of its revenues from the country.

The thesis does not affect today’s IPO valuation directly, but it explains why a meaningful proportion of Tesla shareholders hold the stock as a proxy for SpaceX exposure, and why the two companies are already more intertwined than their separate structures suggest: Tesla converted its $2 billion xAI investment into SpaceX shares following the February 2026 merger.

Will it be included in the S&P 500?

S&P Global declined to change its index inclusion rules, which means the world’s most tracked benchmark will not hold one of the ten most valuable publicly listed companies for at least a year. S&P 500 inclusion requires a 12-month seasoning period after listing, four quarters of cumulative GAAP profitability, and a minimum 10% public float. SpaceX currently fails two of those three tests.

The decision protects the index’s reputation for standards-based methodology. With roughly $20 trillion invested in or benchmarked to the S&P 500, any deviation from established rules risks weakening the consistency that passive investors rely on. As Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth noted, making exceptions for large but still unprofitable companies does not make much sense.

The representativeness argument cuts back, however. A top-ten company by market capitalization that sits outside the most-followed equity index creates a measurable benchmark gap. Investors in S&P 500 tracking funds will not own a company that, by market cap, belongs in the conversation with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). That structural underweight has no remedy for at least twelve months, and it arrives precisely as an estimated $14 billion in passive buying from S&P 500 funds sits on the sidelines waiting for profitability to be demonstrated.

The decision also hands active managers a clear alpha opportunity. Any fund benchmarked against the S&P 500 can buy SpaceX now and position ahead of the eventual forced passive buying that S&P 500 inclusion will trigger.

The broader question this raises is whether the index’s methodology is built for an era when trillion-dollar companies can spend two decades in private markets before listing. SpaceX is the first real test. OpenAI and Anthropic, both targeting IPOs in 2026, face the same threshold. If all three remain outside the S&P 500 for a year and perform well in the interim, the pressure on the index committee to revisit its rules will be considerable.

Only 4.3% of the Company Will Trade on Day One

The $75 billion raise and the 30% retail allocation are two different numbers describing two different things. SpaceX is selling 555.6 million shares at $135 each, implying a total valuation of $1.77 trillion. That $75 billion represents approximately 4.3% of the total company. The remaining 95.7% remains locked up in the hands of existing shareholders, none of whom are selling any shares as part of this offering.

The 30% retail figure describes how that 4.3% slice is divided: 30% of the IPO proceeds, worth roughly $22.5 billion, is reserved for retail investors. Retail investors are therefore receiving about 1.3% of the total company.

The result is that the IPO prices 100% of a $1.75 trillion business based on the trading of 4.3% of its shares, into a partially forced-buy environment created by index inclusion mechanics, with most sellers locked out. Price discovery under those conditions reflects supply-and-demand mechanics more than any consensus view of fundamental value.

The lock-up structure governing the other 95.7% is deliberately staggered. After SpaceX reports its first quarterly results covering the April to June period, insiders become eligible to sell up to 20% of their locked-up shares, with an additional 10% unlocking if the stock is trading at least 30% above the offering price. Five time-based tranches at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days each release a further 7% of eligible shares.

A further 28% unlocks after the Q3 earnings report, with the full remainder coming off restriction at 180 days. Elon Musk, who controls approximately 42% of equity and 85% of voting power, is subject to a separate 366-day restriction. One notable exception: a 5% friends-and-family carve-out carries no lockup, meaning roughly $3.75 billion of shares could reach the market on day one.

Is a 4.3% Float Normal?

It is well below any standard applied to mature public companies or even to recent IPOs. Most established index stocks trade with free floats above 80%. The S&P 500 requires a minimum 10% public float for membership eligibility. Nasdaq’s own rules required at least 10% until the exchange removed the threshold entirely in May 2026, a change introduced specifically to accommodate SpaceX.Free Float

Among comparable mega-cap listings, the closest historical parallel is Saudi Aramco, which floated 1.5% of the company in 2019 and, six years later, still sits at just 2.4% float. That offering was widely described at the time as not reflecting genuine market pricing, in part because of how little real price discovery was possible at that float level. SpaceX’s 4.3% is meaningfully higher than Aramco’s initial float, but sits in the same structural category.

Among the major tech IPOs more commonly used as benchmarks, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) listed at approximately 15% and eventually expanded to 86%. Google and Facebook each floated roughly 18 to 19% at their respective debuts. By the end of a standard lock-up period, it is typical for a company’s free float to reach 50-60% of total equity. SpaceX starts at 4.3% and will expand incrementally over six months before approaching anything like normal trading liquidity. The academic research on low-float IPOs offers a pointed historical note: since 1980, all but one large U.S. IPO that initially floated less than 5% of its stock underperformed the market over the subsequent three years.

A counterpoint comes from Oppenheimer’s analysis of three comparable small-float listings. Google floated 7.2% in August 2004, gained 18% on Day 1, and never retraced its first-day close, returning 92% through year-end and a further 100% in its second year as a public company.

LinkedIn issued approximately 8% of shares in May 2011, surged 109% on Day 1, pulled back 33% through year-end, then recovered 79% in Year 2. Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) listed at roughly 9.5% float in September 2023, rose 25% on Day 1, and returned 64% in its second year.

Near-term volatility following a constrained-float debut does not preclude strong long-term performance for companies with genuine operational moats. SpaceX, at 4.3%, sits below all three precedents, and the quality of its underlying business will ultimately determine the trajectory it follows.Small-Float IPO Comparables

Priced at Over 40x Sales: What History Says

The foundational research on IPO long-run performance comes from Jay Ritter at the University of Florida, whose data covering thousands of IPOs since the 1970s has been continuously updated. The headline finding is that buying at the first-day close, the realistic entry point for retail investors, puts buyers at a structural disadvantage regardless of the company. Investors who buy at the offer price see a three-year market-adjusted return of approximately negative 3.3%. Investors who buy at the first-day close, after the typical day-one pop, start from negative 20.5%.

SpaceX sits at the intersection of several risk factors that Ritter’s data identifies as compounding predictors of long-term underperformance.

The valuation multiple is the most severe. IPOs with price-to-sales ratios above 40 times have trailed the market by 58 percentage points over three years in Ritter’s dataset, despite averaging a 93.6% first-day gain.

SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio at the IPO valuation is approximately 94 times, more than double the threshold that already carries that record. Of the 14 IPOs in Ritter’s data with revenues above $100 million and price-to-sales ratios above 40, 12 subsequently underperformed the market over their first three years if purchased at the first-day close.

Argus Research’s peer analysis of the five largest US-listed technology companies finds them trading at an average price-to-sales ratio of 12.2 times. SpaceX’s implied 92.1x represents a 7.5-fold premium to that group average, in a market where no comparable public company has ever sustained a multiple of this magnitude at this revenue scale.Price to Sales

Profitability compounds the picture. Unprofitable IPOs pop an average of 26.5% on day one but return negative 0.5% over three years, lagging the market by 30.7 percentage points. The market environment adds a further layer: Ritter’s research specifically found that companies going public in high-volume years fare worst. The 2026 IPO wave, with SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic together targeting more than $240 billion in combined raises, represents exactly the kind of concentrated, high-volume cycle that has historically produced the weakest cohort-level returns. A large first-day pop, which the mechanical setup of this offering almost guarantees, is itself a negative signal. The bigger the day-one gain, the more the underlying long-term underperformance tends to follow.Risk Scorecard

Sources: Jay R. Ritter, "Initial Public Offerings: Updated Long-run Statistics," University of Florida, March 2026 (4,110 IPOs, 1980-2024); Carson Group, June 2026; Summitward IPO data analysis, June 2026.

The counterargument deserves stating clearly. Ritter’s data covers averages across thousands of companies. SpaceX generates $18.7 billion in real revenue, has demonstrated 33% year-on-year growth, and holds near-monopoly positions in commercial launch and satellite broadband. The top 10% of IPOs in Ritter’s dataset earn average market-adjusted returns of over 300%. SpaceX could be in that cohort. But the base rate, across five risk factors this offering triggers simultaneously, argues against the retail buyer entering at the first-day close.

Are There Guardrails Preventing Institutional Share-Dumping on Retail?

At the IPO itself, the protection is real and total. The S-1 filing explicitly states that the share sale is limited to SpaceX as an entity, meaning that no existing holder, venture fund, early employee, or institutional investor is selling a single share as part of the offering. Every dollar of the $75 billion goes to the company. On day one, the guardrail holds.

The staggered lock-up structure then spreads the institutional exit across approximately six months rather than concentrating it in a single 180-day expiry event. This reduces the risk of a violent supply shock at any one moment and is meaningfully better for retail investors than the traditional cliff-style lockup.

Two caveats qualify that picture. The 5% friends-and-family carve-out carries no lockup, placing approximately $3.75 billion of shares in the hands of people who can sell starting on day one. More structurally, the staggered structure begins releasing shares far sooner than a conventional lockup would allow. The first window, 20% of eligible insider shares, opens after the Q2 earnings release in late July, six to eight weeks from today. A conventional 180-day lockup would have held that supply until December.

The staggered structure was not primarily designed to protect retail investors. It was engineered to expand the public float rapidly enough to maximize SpaceX’s weighting in the Nasdaq 100 after fast-track inclusion, which in turn increases the forced passive buying from index funds. Historical precedents are cautionary: Facebook’s 2012 IPO used a staggered lockup and shares had still fallen more than 40% from the offering price by the time it concluded. Palantir saw retail enthusiasm drive the stock from $10 to near $40 before insiders, including Peter Thiel, sold tens of millions of shares into that premium at lockup expiry. The stock fell 13% in a single session.

What About the Funds That Hold Positions?

The funds on SpaceX’s cap table represent a different category of seller from individual insiders and operate under structural pressures that the lock-up governs in timing but cannot dissolve. The major institutional holders include Andreessen Horowitz, DFJ Growth, Founders Fund, Sequoia Capital, Valor Equity Partners, Thrive Capital, Alphabet, Baillie Gifford, D1 Capital Partners, and Fidelity, among others. Founders Fund and Valor Equity Partners are each sitting on positions worth more than $60 billion in paper gains. Sequoia invested approximately $2 billion in total and holds roughly 1.5% of the combined entity, implying returns exceeding $20 billion.

Traditional venture capital funds are legally obligated to return capital to their limited partners. That obligation does not expire with the lockup. DFJ and Founders Fund invested in SpaceX before its valuation reached $1 billion, more than 15 years ago. Many of the fund vehicles holding those original positions are approaching or past their designed lifespan. Once the lockup releases, distribution is a legal requirement.

Different fund structures will behave differently: evergreen crossover funds like ARK Invest are designed to hold companies through their full lifecycle and can trim positions gradually without a mandate to distribute, while mark-to-market hedge funds like D1 Capital and Coatue will act tactically.

The SPV layer introduces a complication that has received almost no mainstream coverage. A substantial portion of SpaceX shares are held through layered special-purpose vehicles, sometimes two or three tiers deep.

When the lockup releases for a first-layer SPV, that vehicle has 30 days to distribute shares to its own investors, who then have 30 days to distribute further down the chain. The result is a cascading distribution process extending well beyond the nominal lockup dates in the S-1, with investors at lower tiers potentially waiting months longer than the public calendar suggests. Some investors in these vehicles have reportedly not yet confirmed how many shares they will actually receive.

Who Is Selling at the IPO, and Who Is Not?

The cleanest summary of today’s actual mechanics: the institutional ecosystem is entirely locked out at the IPO. All selling pressure on day one comes from two sources: the new shares being issued by SpaceX itself and the $3.75 billion friends-and-family tranche that carries no restriction.

Retail investors receiving IPO allocations also face their own informal holding incentive. Fidelity enforces a 15-calendar-day tracking period, after which selling is penalty-free. Robinhood applies a 30-day window with a 60-day ban from future IPO access for first violations. SoFi may charge a $50 fee for any retail seller within the first 120 days. The brokers are managing short-term supply from the retail tranche, creating an informal lockup running in parallel with the institutional structure.

One detail worth noting for context: the "smart money" in this story was not entirely waiting for today. The pre-IPO secondary market for SpaceX shares has been one of the most actively traded in private market history for several years. Sophisticated holders who wanted partial liquidity before the IPO could access it through secondary transactions at prices climbing steadily since 2022. Some of the selling pressure that might otherwise concentrate after lockup expiry has already been absorbed, quietly, long before retail investors were ever involved.

The picture that emerges across the full structure is a liquidity event more carefully choreographed than any previous IPO of this scale: no institutional dumping at listing, a first day controlled by mechanical index-buying and retail demand, and a rolling six-month window of institutional distribution to follow. Whether that choreography is sufficient to hold the price at levels where retail buyers who enter today will still feel comfortable in 2029 is, as five decades of IPO research suggest, a genuinely open question.

Bottom Line

SpaceX’s IPO is a landmark event by every structural measure — the largest offering in market history, the first genuine public access to a company that defined a generation of private-market investing, and a liquidity mechanism assembled with more engineering than any comparable deal. The day-one protections for retail are real: no insider dumping, a staggered lockup, and a Musk stake that stays locked for a year. But the protections govern the opening act, not the full run.

Once the lockup windows open from late July onward, a wave of institutional distribution begins that has only one direction. Combined with a price-to-sales multiple that has no precedent among profitable mega-cap companies, an unprofitable income statement, a 4.3% float that compresses price discovery, and an IPO cycle that academic research has consistently identified as a risk period for retail buyers, the long-run risk profile for anyone entering at or above the first-day close is substantial.

SpaceX may well be the rare exception that rewrites the historical record. The honest read of the evidence, however, is that the smart money got in years ago, the index-inclusion mechanics will drive the first weeks of trading, and the retail investor who buys the excitement on Day 1 is the last link in a very long liquidity chain.

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Key Points

SpaceX is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday at an initial market value of about $1.77 trillion. The market's biggest IPOs have usually popped on day one, but most later traded below their offer prices. Lockup expirations have been a recurring source of pressure on newly public stocks.10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›

SpaceX is set to make stock market history. The rocket maker turned satellite internet and artificial intelligence (AI) conglomerate is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday, June 12, after selling about 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 apiece. It will trade under the ticker SPCX. The $75 billion raise would be the largest from any initial public offering (IPO) ever -- more than double the $29.4 billion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. And it gives the company an initial market value of about $1.77 trillion, instantly one of the most valuable companies in the world.

Anticipation among everyday investors seems just as outsized. SpaceX's prospectus names several retail brokerage platforms that will make shares available at the offer price, an unusual arrangement at this scale. Everyone else who wants in on Friday will pay whatever price the market sets at the open.

Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »

So, what does history say about buying a debut of this magnitude on day one? Here are three lessons from the market's biggest IPOs.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. The first-day pop mostly rewards offer-price buyers

Big IPOs usually rise on their first day. But the headline gain is measured from the offer price, not from the price most investors can actually get. When Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba went public in 2014, its shares were priced at $68 and opened at $92.70 before closing at $93.89 -- a 38% first-day gain. That pop, however, went almost entirely to investors who received shares in the offering. Anyone who bought at the opening trade earned barely more than 1% by the close.

It can be worse. Visa priced its 2008 IPO at $44 and closed its first session 28% higher at $56.50. But the stock opened at $59.50, meaning investors who bought at the opening trade finished their first day down about 5%.

2. Patient buyers have usually been offered a better price

Here's the part of IPO history that gets less attention: each of the market's most celebrated debuts eventually traded below not just its first-day close but its offer price.

Meta Platforms, then known as Facebook, closed its first day in 2012 at $38.23, nearly flat against a $38 offer price. The stock then needed more than a year to climb back above that level. Alibaba slid below $68 less than a year after its debut. Even Visa, one of the market's great long-term winners, dipped below $44 by January 2009.

Chip designer Arm Holdings offers the most recent example. After pricing its 2023 IPO at $51 and closing its first day about 25% higher at $63.59, the stock was back at $51 within a week. Notably, that didn't make Arm a poor investment. Shares more than doubled from the offer price within their first year on the market. The lesson isn't that the biggest IPOs are doomed -- it's that investors who waited have usually been able to buy at or below the first day's price.

3. Lockup expirations are a known pressure point

Only about 4% of SpaceX's shares are being sold in the offering. The rest are largely held by insiders and early investors who are restricted from selling for now. And history shows what can happen when those restrictions lapse.

Meta's first lockup expiration in August 2012 freed about 271 million shares for sale, and the stock fell to about half its offer price around the event. SpaceX's prospectus lays out a staggered schedule of its own, with insider shares becoming eligible for sale in tranches tied to its first quarterly reports as a public company -- and CEO Elon Musk can't sell for a full year. As that new supply reaches the market, trading could remain volatile well beyond Friday.

What the playbook means for SpaceX (and interested investors)

None of this answers whether SpaceX deserves its price tag. That's maybe even a tougher debate than the one around which direction the stock will trade after the IPO. The company's revenue grew 33% year over year in 2025 to $18.7 billion, led by its Starlink-driven connectivity business, which generated $11.4 billion of that total and counted 10.3 million subscribers at the end of March. But the company also posted a $4.9 billion net loss last year, driven largely by its AI segment following the February acquisition of xAI. And at $135 per share, the stock is valued at about 95 times its 2025 revenue.

In my opinion, SpaceX looks overvalued.

Ultimately, Friday's headline numbers may say more about who got shares at $135 than about where the stock is headed. And investors who like the business may get chances to buy at better prices as lockups expire and early volatility plays out. So, for investors drawn to SpaceX, that may be the most useful takeaway of all: the decision doesn't have to be made in full at Friday's opening bell.

Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) is one of the best IPO stocks to buy and hold for 2 years. On June 2, Chris Bergey, Arm's Executive VP of the Edge AI Business Unit, announced that the newly unveiled NVIDIA RTX Spark is set to redefine personal computing for the agentic era. As AI shifts from traditional application-based models to autonomous agents capable of reasoning, planning, and executing complex workflows, there is an increasing demand for computing platforms that balance extreme efficiency with high-performance capabilities for local inference.

The RTX Spark addresses this evolution by integrating an Arm-based Grace CPU with NVIDIA's Blackwell RTX GPU and unified memory. This architecture provides the tight integration required to support multi-stage AI tasks (such as code generation and dynamic reasoning) directly on the device. By optimizing these hardware components, the platform offers the low-latency acceleration needed to manage the rising cost and token-usage demands of modern AI models while ensuring user data privacy.Arm (ARM), NVIDIA (NVDA) Executive Highlight Shift Toward Agentic AI Computing

Supported by a close partnership with Microsoft, this launch represents a significant milestone for the Windows on Arm ecosystem. By delivering advanced AI performance within efficient, thin-and-light form factors, the RTX Spark aims to provide developers, creators, and gamers with the responsive computing power necessary for the next generation of autonomous AI experiences.

Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) is involved in the licensing, research, marketing, and development of systems IP, microprocessors, graphics processing units, physical IP, and associated systems IP, software, and tools. The company's operations are divided into the following geographical segments: the UK, the US, and Other Countries.

While we acknowledge the potential of ARM as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on thebest short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 33 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and Cathie Wood 2026 Portfolio: 10 Best Stocks to Buy.

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The server CPU market is set to grow significantly through 2030 on the back of the global AI data center build-out.

According to BofA Global Research analyst Vivek Arya, the server CPU total addressable market (TAM) will grow to more than $170 billion by 2030 from $35 billion in 2025, a 5x expansion, and well ahead of prior 2030 TAM estimates of $125 billion.

"We view the emergence of agentic AI as a powerful demand accelerant that expands the CPU opportunity and lifts both [Intel and AMD] and [Arm-based] challengers," Arya wrote.

CPUs, or central processing units, have become an increasingly important part of the AI explosion. While graphics processing units (GPUs) continue to dominate data center spending, CPUs from Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD), and those built using Arm's (ARM) chip architecture are set to grab a bigger slice of the AI pie.

The reason comes down to the growth of AI agents, otherwise referred to as agentic AI. AI agents are autonomous and semi-autonomous digital helpers that can perform tasks on a user's behalf.

You can build your own agents using popular tools like OpenAI's (OPAI.PVT) Codex, Anthropic's (ANTH.PVT) Claude, and Google's (GOOG, GOOGL) Gemini. Consumer devices, such as smartphones and laptops, are also beginning to provide agentic capabilities.

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While GPUs continue to power AI models, when AI agents take actions based on your prompts, such as scouring your email for a message about an upcoming conference and putting it on your calendar, they're relying on CPUs to perform those tasks.

The continued increase in the use and number of AI agents will only drive CPU demand higher, Arya explained in his note.Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan attends a press conference during the Computex 2026 exhibition in Taipei, Taiwan, Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying)·AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying

That, coupled with recent news that Intel is working to build chips for Google and Nvidia, has sent shares of the chip builder soaring 436% over the last 12 months. AMD, meanwhile, has climbed 280% in the same period.

While Intel and AMD stand out among data center CPU vendors, Nvidia (NVDA) and Qualcomm (QCOM) stand to grab a piece of the market, as well.

Nvidia already offers its Grace CPU as part of its Grace Blackwell superchip, and it has begun offering its own CPU-based servers. Qualcomm, meanwhile, is expanding into the data center space with its own data center CPU, which it's rumored to debut later this month.Sign up for Yahoo Finance's Week in Tech newsletter.·Yahoo Finance

Email Daniel Howley at dhowley@yahoofinance.com. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielHowley.

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Semiconductor stocks rose on Thursday after Bank of America said agentic AI could open a market worth more than $170 billion for server CPUs by 2030, lifting outlooks for Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM), according to a Wednesday research note.

AMD jumped about 3%, Intel climbed more than 4% and Arm gained over 3% in morning trading, while Nvidia edged up about 1%. The brokerage said CPUs may take on a larger share of AI work as systems move beyond simple prompt responses.

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Signs with NVDA. Is NVDA fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator.

Bank of America raised AMD's target to $560 from $500 and Arm's target to $335 from $245. It also upgraded Intel to Buy and set a $135 target, saying Nvidia remains its top semiconductor pick because of its full-stack AI position.

The firm kept Qualcomm (QCOM) at Underperform, even with an expected AI CPU update at its June 24 AI Day. Investors also watched Nvidia's participation in a funding round for German robotics start-up Neura Robotics, which wants to scale production to several million robots a year by 2030.

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