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FTSE 100 jumps 162 points to 10,466 Brent crude futures fall then rise UK economy contracts 0.1% in April Housebuilders show strong recovery

4.17pm: SpaceX and US consumer confidence

The Footsie is heading towards sealing its strongest session in a while, with a gain over over 160 points currently.

British Aiways owner IAG is top of the leaderboard, up 6.7%, followed by miners and banks.

Both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are up over 1.5%, with mid-cap gains led by miners, air travel stocks and Ceres Power.

Oil prices are softening again, with Brent crude down below $85 a barrel now, 3.5% lower on the day and $10 a barrel below highs at the start of the week.

The SpaceX indicative price is still falling but remains well above the issue price.

Latest was $160 apiece, which would be around a 19% premium to the IPO price.

Elsewhere, the US consumer sentiment has improved this month, with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 48.9 in June from 44.8 in May, above the consensus forecast of 46.0.

Grace Zwemmer at Oxford Economics says: "Easing gas prices helped lift consumer sentiment this month. However, consumers are still broadly anxious about the health of the economy.

"Both measures of inflation expectations ticked down in June but remain higher than their pre-war levels. Stability in inflation expectations could help the Federal Reserve view the oil price shock to inflation as a one-off."

3.41pm: SpaceX indicated opening price is higher, but falling

The indicative opening price of SpaceX is falling, but still well above the $135 issue price.

Trading may begin around 12:30pm ET (5.30pm UK) or maybe earlier.

Shares are indicated to open at just $168.75 each, a gain of around 25%.

First it was a $174, then $171 then $170, and now below that.

An extra nugget within the SpaceX story is that Elon Musk, who owns about 42% of SpaceX, is going to become the first dollar trillionaire if the price is much above the issue price.

3.21pm: Iran deal based on performance, says White House insider

A White House official is leaking more information on the Iran deal, presumably to counter the "fake news" statements from Tehran.

Reports citing a senior US administration official stress that any sanctions relief would be strictly conditional on Tehran meeting its commitments.

According to the official, the deal would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing the blockage for global energy.

There will be "no money" released to Tehran "until they perform", the reports say, suggesting sanctions relief and access to frozen funds would be tied to verified compliance.

Story Continues

The official also said Iran's nuclear material would be "destroyed and removed" and that the country's nuclear programme would be dismantled under the agreement. In addition, the deal would require Iran to cease funding terrorist groups.

What do markets make of it? Brent crude is up above $86 a barrel again, down 1.1% on the day.

The FTSE is striding higher, led by coppper miners Antofagasta and Anglo American, sandwiching British Airways owner IAG, all up over 5.5%.

Next are banks, precious metals miners, and Rolls-Royce. SpaceX investors Scottish Mortgage is up 3.6%, while fellow big tech investor Polar Capital Tech Trust is up 4.3%, catching up with last night's gains.

There are only nine London blue-chjp names in the red, with losses for BP and Shell trimmed slightly, to 2.2% and 1.9%.

3.10pm: SpaceX price expected at 29% premium

Newswire reports suggest the SpaceX IPO attracted more than $350 billion of total investor demand, including over $250 billion from institutional investors alone, making it one of the most heavily oversubscribed offerings in market history.

Institutional allocations appear to have been skewed towards long-term investors, with around 70% of shares sold to institutions allocated to long-only funds and sovereign wealth fundsm, Reuters reported.

The reports confirm that retail investors received about 20% of the shares sold in the IPO, while lower than the mooted 30% is far larger allocation than is typical for a US mega-cap flotation.

According to pre-market indications, SpaceX shares are set to open at around $174, compared with the IPO price of $135, implying a gain of almost 29% on debut.

If that pricing holds, SpaceX's market value would surge well above the $1.75 trillion valuation established in the offering, nearer $2.3 trillion, just shy of Amazon's $2.5 trillion market cap.

2.52pm: Volatile US open after Trump slams Iran

US stocks opened higher but gains were immediately wiped out after some confusion emerged about the purported Iran peace deal.

The Nasdaq has dropped 0.7%, the S&P is down 0.3% and the Dow Jones is just above flat, having opened up around 0.6% higher in initial trades.

President Donald Trump posted on social media that terms Iran leaked out "have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing". He says Tehran's statement is "dishonourable" and "bears no relation to the truth" and that "they better get their act together, and FAST".

Oil prices have also spiked back to where they were at midnight, with Brent back up to $89 a barrel.

2.10pm: Scottish Mortgage and other trusts that have SpaceX stakes

Nasdaq has announced that the IPO of SpaceX is to be released for stock price quotes at 9:50am Eastern Time (2.50pm London time).

As well as the retail investors excited about the IPO, there are also several investment trusts that have been long backers of the rocket and satellite company, such as Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC (LSE:SMT), which invested as long ago as 2018.

SMT's stake was 21% of its portfolio value, according to an update last week.

Edinburgh Worldwide Investment and Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, also managed by Baillie Gifford, have sizeable stakes, along with the Schiehallion Fund Ltd.

Schiehallion said it had 14.5% of its assets in SpaceX, Baillie Gifford USA 16.5% and EWI 22%.

Also, Google parent Alphabet owns a stake of around 4.9% of the $1.77 trillion company, having bought in over a decade ago.

Existing backers like Scot Mort and Alphabet are subject to a lockup period after the IPO, liquidity limits and a potential tax hit on an outright sale.

There is a staggered lock-up structure, with expiration at 180 days for general insiders, while Musk and other significant stakeholders subject to a longer 366-day lock-up. Musk is not expected to sell shares at this point, though.

1.44pm: Market scepticism recovering

Oil prices are creeping up again. Brent crude, having fallen from $95 on Thursday night to almost $86 a barrel this morning, is now back up at almost $88.

A report from Axios suggested that both sides have agreed the text, which has been cleared at high levels in Iran but may still lack approval from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

The two sides are said to have agreed the text of a proposed memorandum that would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, extend the ceasefire by 60 days and provide limited sanctions relief in exchange for Iranian commitments on its nuclear programme.

If signed, the agreement mediated by Qatar and Pakistan would be known as the Islamabad agreement.

"Markets are taking Trump’s latest declaration with a degree of caution", says market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.

Economist Kallum Pickering at Peel Hunt notes that President Trump has for the past two months "repeatedly signalled that a deal between the US and Iran to end the conflict and re-open the Strait of Hormuz is imminent".

"Each time, however, negotiations have broken down, or Iran has accused the US of making unjustified claims of a breakthrough."

After last night's announcement, "financial markets appear to be reacting as if a deal is underway"... though "let me emphasise, we have seen this before only for no breakthrough to emerge in the end".

Says Pickering: "If a deal is indeed reached, a big if, expect markets to raise expectations for growth in major economies as inflation worries ease, with expectations for further central bank rate hikes curtailed."

Razaqzada notes that while Trump's claim to have "ended the war with Iran" triggered an immediate risk-on reaction, with equities and bonds in demand as oil fell, "the follow-through remains surprisingly restrained for what would be a significant geopolitical breakthrough".

He adds that "there are still important hurdles to overcome", with Iranian officials have not publicly endorsed the reported framework, and questions remain over whether Tehran will seek additional concessions before signing any deal

1.07pm: US stocks to extend gains

Wall Street is heading for a firmer open, with futures ticking higher as investors weigh President Donald Trump’s sudden shift on Iran and turn attention to a blockbuster market debut.

Dow Jones futures are up over 0.7%, while those for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq futures are up nearer 0.6%, all extending the strong gains from last night.

That rally came after Trump said US military strikes on Iran were "cancelled" and suggested a peace deal could be close, as "discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved".

The Nasdaq jumped 2.5%, the Dow finished up 1.9% and the S&P gained 1.8% as risk appetite returned.

Today, geopolitics looks set to fade into the background, with all eyes are on the much-anticipated SpaceX IPO, for which many are holding their breath.

12.34pm: Fall in UK GDP 'won't alter BoE outlook', says Barclays

UK monthly GDP contracting 0.1% in April will not alter the Bank of England's thinking much, says economist Jack Meaning at Barclays.

The monthly contraction was in line with other soft Q2 data, he points out, with PMI data weakening, particularly in services, as well as weaker spending signals from Barclays spend trends data.

"We continue to expect the impact of the Middle East conflict to feed into more subdued activity in the next few months," he adds, retain his expectation of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2.

"For the Bank of England, we think the data today will validate their expectation of Q2 growth of 0.1% q/q heading into the meeting next week (18 June), and won't alter their outlook for GDP growth.

"We now look to BoE​/​Ipsos inflation expectations data (12 June), the May inflation data (17 June) and April labour market release (18 June) for any surprises.

"We think the bar for coming data to change the outcome of the June meeting is high, although it may, at the margin, affect the vote split and tone of individual paragraphs."

11.54am: Shell, BP and BAE weigh

Weighing on the index today are falls for energy and defence groups, some heavyweights among only 16 London blue-chips that are in the red currently.

Oil giants BP and Shell are down 4.4% and 3.25%. Defence group BAE Systems is down 1.9%, followed by energy suppliers Centrica and SSE, down 1.9% and 1%.

Next are Sage Group, Bunzl, National Grid, LSE and British American Tobacco.

11.22am: SpaceX UK investors own almost $364 million of the shares

Some more precise details are available on the scale of UK retail participation in SpaceX's record-breaking IPO.

Marex, which operated the UK retail offer through the Winterflood Retail Access Platform, said 2,696,175 shares were allocated to UK retail investors at the IPO price of $135 (£100.65) per share.

This means UK investors own almost $364 million of SpaceX shares.

Investors who applied for up to $2,700 worth of stock received their allocations in full, while larger applications were scaled back. No investor received more than 1,000 shares, Marex said.

Overall, 61% of retail investors received a full allocation, highlighting both the strong demand for the flotation and the relatively generous treatment of smaller investors.

As well as the $75 billion of shares sold in the IPO, underwriters also have the option to sell a further 83.3 million shares.

11.04am: SpaceX touching down

SpaceX’s much-anticipated IPO "has been a roaring success", says Kathleen Brooks at XTB, with huge demand for the shares.

The IPO has raised $75 billion, making it the largest ever, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion, the seventh largest firm on the US stock market.

Trading in New York's Nasdaq begins later, with the company worth more than JP Morgan, Meta, Eli Lilly, Berkshire Hathaway and Tesla, Brooks notes.

It's free float of $75 billion is more on a par with the market caps of Airbnb, Ross Stores and General Motors, though.

"Today comes the real test," says Brooks, as the shares trade on the open market for the first time.

"After Thursday’s stock market rally the scene is set for a strong start, but any sign of weakness on the main US tech exchange could send shivers across financial markets."

She notes reports that the allocation of shares to the retail market has been lower than originally reported at roughly 20% versus the mooted 30%.

"This is still far higher than the usual allocation to the retail trading community and suggests that institutional demand far outstripped supply.

"This signals that everyone wants a slice of SpaceX right now, which could lead to more shares coming to market, should the underwriters exercise their right to sell additional shares in the coming weeks."

10.30am: More market movers

The FTSE 100 has pared some of the morning's gains, and is now 141 points up at 10,445.02. Here's a look at some of the other stocks making big moves today.

Kier Group PLC (LSE:KIE) rose 3.8% after securing a £140 million contract extension with South West Water, part of Pennon Group PLC (LSE, OTC), running through to 2028. The deal extends a 20-year partnership and keeps Kier as sole contractor on the network services alliance. Read more

BSF Enterprise PLC (LSE:BSFA, OTC:BSFAF) plunged 42% after its first T-Rex Leather handbag failed to meet its reserve at a Paris auction. The €150,000 top bid fell short, leaving the item unsold. The company has now withdrawn it for private sale, but says interest in its bio-leather technology remains strong, with ongoing talks in the sportswear and automotive sectors. Read more

Virgin Wines UK PLC (AIM:VINO) fell 14% to 28.8p after warning of a swing to a £1.5 million pre-tax loss for 2026 despite modest revenue growth. Higher duties and weaker consumer confidence weighed on profits. The group still highlighted improving sales momentum and rising customer acquisition, alongside plans for a new £700,000 warehouse investment funded from cash reserves. Read more

MedPal AI plc (AIM:MPAL) surged 25% to a three-month high around 3.88p after UK approval of Novo Nordisk’s oral weight-loss drug boosted sentiment around its new clinic model. The company says the timing is ideal, with its New Health service launching just as demand for GLP-1 treatments expands. It expects oral options to widen uptake beyond injectables, supported by strong US prescription trends. Read more

Cizzle Biotechnology Holdings PLC (LSE:CIZ) shares jumped 10.9% to 3.05p after the company secured a US patent covering methods used to detect its CIZ1B lung cancer biomarker. The patent strengthens its position in a key market and supports plans with partner Cizzle Bio Inc to commercialise the test across North America and the Caribbean. Read more

9.20am: Footsie bounces higher

The FTSE 100 has extended its gains as the morning progresses, now up 148 points at 10,451.84 for a gain of close to 1.5%.

BA-owner International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG) is now leading the pack, with a 5.5% gain, while Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.) has edged into second place, up 4.5%.

"Global equities are ending the week with a powerful relief rally as markets price a rising chance of a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough," commented Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly. "President Trump said the US is nearing a deal with Tehran, raising hopes that a conflict which has driven volatility for more than three months could be moving toward resolution."

Munnelly pointed out that oil is the clearest expression of the shift in risk premia. Brent has fallen another 2% to around $88.50/bbl after President Trump softened military threats and pointed to high-level talks with Iranian officials.

"A formal signing ceremony could reportedly take place as soon as this weekend in Europe, with JD Vance expected to attend," he added. "The market is moving from pricing escalation risk to pricing de-escalation relief. That does not remove geopolitical uncertainty, but it materially reduces the immediate threat of a sustained energy shock."

9am: Housebuilders perk up

UK housebuilders surged on Friday as investors warmed to the prospect of lower interest rates and easing tensions in the Middle East.

Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) rose 3.9%, Barratt Redrow PLC (LSE:BTRW) gained 3.7%,Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) added 2.9%, while Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) led the sector with a 5.1% jump.

The gains came despite data showing the UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April. Instead of spooking markets, the weaker GDP reading fuelled expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates sooner rather than later to support growth. The BoE's rate-setting committee meets next week.

Hopes of a peace agreement in the Middle East also lifted sentiment. Oil prices retreated on the prospect of fewer supply disruptions, easing inflation concerns and reducing pressure on policymakers to keep rates higher for longer.

Government bond prices rose, and yields fell as investors increasingly priced in rate cuts rather than hikes. For housebuilders, cheaper borrowing costs could mean more affordable mortgages and stronger demand, helping a sector that has struggled under the weight of higher interest rates.

8.15am: Footsie bounces at the open

The FTSE 100 jumped at the open, gaining 89 points to 10,392.88 in the first 15 minutes of trading on hopes that an end to the conflict in the Middle East is near.

Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) led the gainers, with a 5.3% gain as copper prices surged on the potential end to the war. Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) was close behind, up 4.9%, while housebuilder Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) rose 4.5% after a report suggesting that recent buying activity had been brisk. International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG) added 4.4% as oil prices fell below $90 a barrel.

BP PLC (LSE:BP.) and Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) have come under pressure due to the lower oil prices, down 3.3% and 2.4% respectively.

"The FTSE100 rode on the coattails of improved global investor sentiment, with a strong open which built on a resilient performance in the previous session," commented interactive investor's Richard Hunter. "The gains came despite the oil majors following the oil price south, with a broad rally which included the housebuilders after a report suggesting that recent buying activity had been brisk."

While markets staged a strong recovery on hopes that the Middle East conflict could finally be coming to an end, Hunter noted that for the US there is only one show in town today.

"The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO will debut today after what has been an unusual run-up," Hunter said. "The price of $135 per share was announced in advance, Elon Musk reportedly negotiated special deals with Wall Street advisors, and the percentage of shares available to retail investors is much higher than would normally be the case. The offering will raise $75 billion for the company, which will be valued at $1.75 trillion."

7.55am: Fickle markets

Markets look set for a positive end to the week after President Trump made a massive about-turn on his plan to "hit Iran hard."

It's not the first time he's indicated a peace deal is at hand. According to a CNBC review of the president’s social media posts and public remarks, Trump has signalled or stated outright more than 30 times that a deal is nearly at hand. CNN puts it higher at 38 times since before April's ceasefire was announced.

"The past 24 hours has seen a sharp reversal in the trajectory of the US–Iran conflict, as mounting hopes of a deal have seen Brent crude fall -1.62% overnight, leaving it on track for a 3-month low of $88.80/bbl. So that’s led to a huge rally across bonds and equities, as lower oil prices have eased fears about a prolonged stagflationary shock," commented Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid.

"With oil prices coming down sharply, alongside hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, that’s seen investors price out the chance of rapid rate hikes this year. Indeed, as we go to press, markets are now pricing in just a 77% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, having been fully priced in earlier this week."

7.35am: Middle East conflict hits the economy

The UK economy hit a small bump in April, with GDP slipping 0.1% after solid growth in February and March. The monthly decline was largely down to a 0.2% drop in the services sector, while construction edged higher and production was flat.

The bigger picture, though, remains more encouraging. The economy expanded by 0.7% over the three months to April, marking the fifth consecutive period of three-month growth. Services continued to do much of the heavy lifting, with information and communication performing particularly well, alongside retail and professional services. Construction also made a strong contribution.

There were some headwinds. Businesses across sectors said conflict in the Middle East affected trading conditions, with some reporting weaker demand and higher energy and fuel costs.

Even so, GDP was still 1.2% higher than a year earlier, suggesting the UK's growth story remains intact despite a softer start to the second quarter.

FTSE 100 pre-market open

Stocks in London are expected to open higher after US President Donald Trump backtracked on a threat to "hit Iran hard" as he hinted at a major breakthrough in talks.

The FTSE 100 has been called 81 points higher, after closing Thursday's session 49 points up at 10,304. Brent crude has fallen 2% to $88.58 a barrel, while US WTI futures are also lower.

"What’s unbelievable is that after three months of this nonsense, markets still move on words that have little substance," commented Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya. "This morning, US crude is testing the $85pb level to the downside, its lowest level since the early days of the Iranian conflict. Yet there is no confirmation from Iranian media, and there is nothing to suggest that this time will be the charm."

Overnight, US stocks staged a powerful comeback, with investors piling back into risk assets after President Trump said he had cancelled planned military strikes against Iran and suggested a diplomatic agreement could be close at hand.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the advance, jumping 2.5% as traders reversed much of Wednesday's sharp sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.9%, and the S&P 500 climbed 1.8%.

As Friday trade draws to a close in Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei is up 2.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is 1.7% higher, and Shanghai's SSE Composite has gained 1.2%. In Seoul, the Kospi has rallied 4.4% after earlier trading 8% higher as foreign investors shifted to net buying for the first time in 25 trading days. Sydney's ASX 200 closed 2% firmer.

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South32 Ltd (LSE:S32, ASX:S32, OTC:SHTLF) ist die bevorzugte Mining-Aktie von Citi, da das Bankhaus sich aufgrund seiner verbesserten Prognose für Kupfer- und Aluminiumpreise optimistischer zeigt. Die US-Bank hat ihre langfristigen Kupferprognosen angehoben und erwartet nun Preise von 15.000 US-Dollar pro Tonne innerhalb des nächsten Jahres, gegenüber einem aktuellen LME-Preis unter 13.800 US-Dollar. Citi's Sichtweise basiert auf Unterstützung durch Lieferengpässe, die bis in die Jahre 2027 und 2028 reichen. Diese Prognose hat eine Reihe von Zielpreisanpassungen im Sektor ausgelöst. Citi erhöhte sein Zielpreisziel für South32 auf 320 Pence von 300 Pence, während es BHP Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP) auf £35 von £29 und Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) auf £81 von £76 hob. Im Vergleich zu BHP oder Rio argumentierten die Analysten von Citi, dass Glencore "unter globalen diversifizierten Minern als bessere Exposition für Kupfer-Steigerung" sei, obwohl Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) und Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) von Investoren als FTSE 100-Miner für Kupferexposition angesehen werden. Citi hielt 'neutral' Ratings bei BHP und Rio Tinto, da die Vorteile aus höheren Kupferpreisen teilweise durch eine abgeschwächte Prognose für Eisenerz ausgeglichen werden, das ein wichtiger Einnahmebeitrag für beide Gruppen bleibt. Im Gegensatz dazu steht South32 weiterhin heraus, weil es Expositionen zu beiden Kupfer und Aluminium bietet, wo Citi auch einen Aufwärtspotenzial sieht. Das Unternehmen wurde als Quelle langfristigen strukturellen Wachstums hervorgehoben. Citi sagte, dass die Konsens-Ertragsprognosen für South32 noch Raum für eine Erhöhung haben, da Analysten stärkere Annahmen für Kupfer- und Aluminiumpreise einbeziehen. Das Bankhaus erwartet, dass das Unternehmen einer der größten Begünstigten von Kommoditätpreisanpassungen in den nächsten zwei Jahren sein wird.

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Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors trust Simply Wall St to stay informed where it matters for FREE.

Antofagasta’s analyst fair value estimate has shifted, with the model price target moving from £26.26 to £35.00, a sizeable uplift in the latest round of updates. Behind this change sits a lively split in analyst opinion, with some pushing targets as high as £47.50 and others trimming views toward £32.00 as they reassess execution risks and exposure to copper prices and geopolitical events. Read on to see how these moving targets fit together and what you can watch to keep on top of the evolving Antofagasta story.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for Antofagasta shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Antofagasta.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Canaccord set a £47.50 price target when it moved to a Buy rating, pointing to copper pricing as a key support for its view on Antofagasta’s earnings power and valuation. Scotiabank and Peel Hunt both upgraded the shares, signalling confidence in the company’s project pipeline and ability to execute despite sector wide volatility. Citi, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank all issued higher price targets in recent months, indicating that several large houses see room for the shares relative to their models.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

JPMorgan cut its rating to Neutral with a £32.00 target, flagging Middle East related risks and introducing a more cautious scenario for copper and iron ore that feeds directly into its Antofagasta view. Berenberg, UBS, Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital and Canaccord have all issued downgrades or lower targets at various points, highlighting concerns around geopolitical exposure, commodity price sensitivity and execution on growth projects.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!LSE:ANTO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

We've flagged 1 risk for Antofagasta. See which could impact your investment.

What's in the News

Antofagasta reported first quarter 2026 group production of 143,000 tonnes of copper, 46,500 ounces of gold and 3,000 tonnes of molybdenum, with molybdenum output described as broadly in line with the prior year. The Board proposed a final dividend of 48.0 cents per share for 2025, equal to a 50% payout of underlying earnings per share, subject to shareholder approval. Payment is expected on 11 May 2026 to holders on the register at close of business on 17 April 2026. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company reported copper production of 177.0 kt, gold production of 66.3 koz and molybdenum production of 4.4 kt. For the 2025 year to date period, Antofagasta reported copper production of 653.7 kt, gold production of 211.3 koz and molybdenum production of 15.8 kt.

Story Continues

How This Changes the Fair Value For Antofagasta

Fair value in the analyst model has shifted from £26.26 to £35.00. Revenue growth in the model has moved from 7.94% to 11.56%. Net profit margin has been adjusted from 16.41% to 18.00%. The future P/E assumption has changed from 28.61x to 28.27x. The discount rate has been updated from 8.77% to 9.34%.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives link a company’s real world projects, risks and industry backdrop to a financial forecast and fair value that evolves over time. They update automatically as new broker research, company news and assumptions are added.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Antofagasta to stay up to date on:

How brownfield expansions at Centinela and Los Pelambres, along with the extended Zaldívar permit and Cuprochlor technology, feed into expectations for higher copper output and longer mine lives. Why exposure to grid electrification, renewable energy build out and electric vehicle adoption is a key part of the revenue story in analysts’ models. How risks such as Chilean water scarcity, declining ore grades, tighter ESG regulation, copper price swings and inflation pressures could affect costs, margins and long term earnings stability.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ANTO.L.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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Canaccord upgraded Antofagasta (ANFGF) to Buy from Hold with a price target of 4,750 GBp, up from 4,100 GBp. The firm says current spot pricing implies further upgrades to the copper miners heading into Q2.

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Antofagasta: Solid Delivery but Limited Upside Leaves Valuation Stretched, Justifying Sell Rating Antofagasta Plc Signals Robust Growth In Earnings Call Antofagasta Posts Record EBITDA and Boosts Payout as Growth Projects Peak Antofagasta price target raised to 4,400 GBp from 4,000 GBp at JPMorgan Antofagasta price target raised to 4,000 GBp from 3,900 GBp at Citi

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Okay, here’s a summary of the text, followed by the German translation, within the 500-word limit:

Summary (approx. 480 words)

Antofagasta PLC (ANFGF) delivered a remarkably strong 2025, showcasing robust financial performance and strategic execution. Revenue surged by 30% to $8.6 billion, driven by increased copper production, while EBITDA climbed a significant 52% to a record $5.2 billion, resulting in a healthy EBITDA margin of 60%. Operating cash flow also increased by 30% to $4.3 billion, reflecting efficient operations. The company maintained a stable net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, indicating a strong financial position.

Several key projects, notably the Centinela second concentrator and the Los Pelambres expansion, progressed successfully and remained on schedule and within budget. This solid operational foundation contributed to low net cash costs – $0.82 per pound at Los Pelambres and $0.75 per pound at Centinela – bolstering profitability. The company is targeting a substantial dividend payout of 50% of earnings for 2025, and has proposed doubling this to $0.646 per share, demonstrating commitment to shareholder returns.

Despite the positive results, Antofagasta faces several challenges. The company is grappling with rising technical difficulties and inflationary pressures in global copper production. Elevated working capital levels, stemming from increased shipments in transit and year-end price fluctuations, require careful management. A high effective tax rate of 36% presents another hurdle. Furthermore, complex labor negotiations, particularly at Centinela and Zaldivar, are ongoing amid volatile market conditions. Permitting delays related to Chile's regulatory environment, including potential complexities around project development, represent a considerable risk.

Looking ahead, Antofagasta is focusing on completing existing projects, aiming for on-time and on-budget delivery. Strategic initiatives include extending the life of the Pelambres mine and exploring cathode opportunities at Centinela. The company is also monitoring the positive impact of recent Chilean permitting reforms, which aim to simplify the process. While inorganic growth via mergers and acquisitions isn’t a primary strategy, Antofagasta remains open to opportunities, leveraging its strong valuation and preference for the copper commodity. Key questions addressed during the earnings call centered on future capital returns, value unlocking from infrastructure, and managing potential growth plateaus beyond 2028 – all of which the management team outlined plans to address. The company is flagged with 10 warning signs by GuruFocus, highlighting potential investment risks.

German Translation (approx. 500 words)

Zusammenfassung

Antofagasta PLC (ANFGF) hat 2025 ein bemerkenswert starkes Ergebnis erzielt und robuste finanzielle Leistung sowie strategische Umsetzung vorgezeigt. Der Umsatz stieg um 30 % auf 8,6 Milliarden US-Dollar, angetrieben durch eine erhöhte Kupferproduktion, während das EBITDA um 52 % auf ein Rekordhoch von 5,2 Milliarden US-Dollar anstieg, was zu einer gesunden EBITDA-Marge von 60 % führte. Der operative Cashflow stieg ebenfalls um 30 % auf 4,3 Milliarden US-Dollar und spiegelt effiziente Abläufe wider. Das Unternehmen hat ein stabiles Verhältnis von Nettoschulden zu EBITDA beibehalten, was eine starke finanzielle Position signalisiert.

Mehrere wichtige Projekte, insbesondere der zweite Konzentratorschacht von Centinela und die Erweiterung von Los Pelambres, verliefen erfolgreich und blieben zeit- und budgetgerecht. Diese solide operative Basis trug zu niedrigen Nettewirkkosten – 0,82 US-Dollar pro Pfund bei Los Pelambres und 0,75 US-Dollar pro Pfund bei Centinela – bei, die die Rentabilität stärkten. Das Unternehmen zielt auf eine beträchtliche Dividenden Ausschüttung von 50 % des Gewinns für 2025 und hat vorgeschlagen, dies zu verdoppeln auf 0,646 US-Dollar pro Aktie, was die Verpflichtung zu Aktionärserträgen zeigt.

Trotz der positiven Ergebnisse steht Antofagasta vor mehreren Herausforderungen. Das Unternehmen ringt mit zunehmenden technischen Schwierigkeiten und Inflationsdruck in der globalen Kupferproduktion. Erhöhte Working-Capital-Bestände, die auf erhöhte Sendungen in Transit und Preisfluktuationen am Jahresende beruhen, erfordern eine sorgfältige Verwaltung. Ein hoher effektiver Steuersatz von 36 % stellt ebenfalls eine Hürde dar. Darüber hinaus werden komplexe Tarifverhandlungen, insbesondere bei Centinela und Zaldivar, inmitten eines volatilen Marktumfelds geführt. Verzögerungen bei der Genehmigung, im Zusammenhang mit den regulatorischen Veränderungen in Chile, stellen ein erhebliches Risiko dar.

Mit Blick auf die Zukunft konzentriert sich Antofagasta darauf, bestehende Projekte abzuschließen und dabei die Einhaltung von Zeit und Budget zu gewährleisten. Strategische Initiativen umfassen die Verlängerung der Lebensdauer des Minenwerks Pelambres und die Erschließung von Cathode-Möglichkeiten bei Centinela. Das Unternehmen beobachtet auch die positive Wirkung der jüngsten Änderungen der Genehmigungsprozesse in Chile, die darauf abzielen, den Prozess zu vereinfachen. Obwohl ein organisches Wachstum durch Fusionen und Übernahmen nicht die primäre Strategie ist, bleibt Antofagasta offen für Möglichkeiten, wobei ihr starker Bewertungsstandard und die Präferenz für den Kupferrohstoff genutzt werden. Wichtige Fragen, die während des Gewinnberichtsgesprächs gestellt wurden, drehten sich um zukünftige Kapitalrenditen, die Wertschöpfung aus Infrastruktur und die Bewältigung potenzieller Wachstumseinschränkungen nach 2028 – alle von der Management-Mannschaft detailliert beschrieben. Das Unternehmen ist mit 10 Warnzeichen von GuruFocus gelistet, was potenzielle Investitionsrisiken hervorhebt.

Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!

Zusammenfassung:

Der britische FTSE 100 Aktienindex erreichte am Freitag zum ersten Mal die Marke von 10.000 Punkten, was ein bedeutender Meilenstein ist und auf eine positive Performance im Jahr 2025 aufbaut.

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