Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!

Strikes, tanker attacks, and a silent Hormuz push Brent to $84, with $90 oil now firmly in sight.

The Hormuz Closure That No One Wants to Talk About

• The Israel-US-Iran conflict engulfing most of the Persian Gulf has pushed $10 per barrel higher, LNG prices went up by $15 per MMBtu, and key refined products such as diesel and jet have been spiralling out of control throughout the Atlantic Basin.

• Whilst market watchers almost unanimously define the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the main bullish factor ahead, very few have, in fact, noted that the Strait has been closed for the past two days.

• There have been no crude oil or LNG transits via the Strait of Hormuz on March 2-3, with dozens of fully loaded ships expecting the end of the regional conflagration, anchored across the Persian Gulf.

• The US Central Command, seeking to placate fears, stated today that the Strait of Hormuz is ‘not closed despite statements by Iranian officials’, even as Saudi Arabia officially announced that it would move all its oil exports to the Red Sea, in avoidance of Hormuz.

• According to Kpler, there are already 55 fully loaded VLCC tankers in the Gulf, up by 18 ships since Israel’s initial attack on Iran that took place on February 28.

Market Movers

• UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is reportedly considering selling its minority stake in Australia’s North West Shelf LNG project, potentially garnering $24 billion for the sale as both ADNOC and MidOcean Energy declared interest.

• Angola’s national oil firm Sonangol is moving ahead with its plans for an initial public offering, completing debt sales and establishing an investor relations office as 30% of its shares could be offered in the IPO.

• Norway’s state-controlled Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) is reportedly looking to divest its Angolan assets, building on its 2024 exits from Azerbaijan and Nigeria, seeing quicker returns in Brazil and US deepwater.

• Global trading giant Trafigura signed a 5-year LNG term supply contract with US developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) starting from Q2 2026, the latter’s first mid-term deal concluded since its arbitration deals with Shell, BP and Repsol.

Tuesday, March 03, 2026

Events are escalating with unprecedented speed across the Middle East. Drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, strikes on the world’s largest liquefaction facility in Qatar, the bombing of several tankers, widespread insurance policy cancellations – all that would be usually scattered across several months in a normal year; however, in 2026, that’s just one day’s worth of action. With the Strait of Hormuz seeing no navigation for several days already, ICE Brent is up at $84 per barrel, and it could very well test the $90 per barrel if the pressure on Gulf producers increases.

Story Continues

Related: How China’s Rare Earth Ban Backfired into a U.S. Tech Breakthrough

OPEC+ Opted for Caution Amidst War Pressures. Members of OPEC+ agreed to a relatively modest oil production increase of 206,000 b/d for April 2026, defying the pressure to triple its usual monthly quota on fears that Iranian supply would be curtailed, just as the Strait of Hormuz was set to close.

Qatar Halts World’s Largest LNG Plant. Qatar’s state-owned QatarEnergy has halted production at its Ras Laffan liquefaction plant, the world’s largest LNG object, following reports that Iranian drones have targeted an ‘energy facility’ in Qatar as well as an adjacent power plant in Mesaieed.

Saudi Arabia’s Refining Takes a Hefty from Iran. Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, the 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura plant on the country’s eastern coast, halted operations completely after a drone attack sparked a large fire on Monday morning, raising the risk of Saudi production shut-ins.

Chinese Refiners Go for Run Cuts. China’s leading private refiners Zhejiang Petrochemical and Fujian Refining, which both happen to be partially owned by Saudi Aramco, have announced curtailments in refinery operations rates in response to stalled crude oil deliveries from the Middle East.

Stranded Oil Tankers Push Oil Freight to Records. Iran’s closure of the Hormuz Strait and the risk of seeing tankers struck or stranded in the Persian Gulf lifted freight rates for VLCC tankers to a new high, with a Gulf-to-China voyage now costing $89 per metric tonne, up 560% since early January.

Asia’s Naphtha Cracks Balloon Out of Control. Fears that Middle Eastern naphtha, a 1.2 million b/d stream mostly fed by the UAE and Qatar, could become stranded in the Persian Gulf have lifted Asian naphtha cracks to their highest since April 2022, reaching a $135 per tonne premium vs Brent.

Platts Doesn’t Know What Dubai to Assess. Global price reporting agency S&P Global Platts has suspended bids and offers for some of its Middle Eastern crude, refined product, and LNG price assessments, allowing only Murban and Oman trades as all other grades load deep in the Gulf.

Israel Shuts Down Offshore Gas Fields. The Israeli Energy Ministry has ordered the temporary shutdown of the country’s offshore gas platforms, including the Chevron-operated (NYSE:CVX) Leviathan field that supplies 40% of the country’s gas needs, switching to alternative fuels.

Related: Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth War

Insurers Avoid Hormuz as Much as They Can. Marine insurers are cancelling war risk coverage for tankers set to enter the Strait of Hormuz, with Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, the London P&I Club, and the American Club collectively claiming they would fully cut coverage from March 5.

Keystone XL Might Be More Alive Than Dead. Canada’s midstream giant South Bow (TSE:SOBO), spun out of TC Energy in 2024, is reportedly seeking to revive the Keystone XL pipeline by re-routing it through Montana, potentially boosting Canada-to-US crude flows by another 550,000 b/d.

Nigeria Gets Creative With Its Blocks. The government of Nigeria has broken up the OPL 245 offshore license block into four new assets operated by European majors ENI (BIT:ENI) and Shell (LON:SHEL), paving the way for the long-stalled development of Nigeria’s largest untapped field.

Kurdish Producers Cut Output Amidst Drone Hits. Following massive Iranian drone strikes on US military installations in Erbil, oil companies operating in the semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan have started to shut in production, with Gulf Keystone and Shamaran shuttering 110,000 b/day of output.

Brace Yourself for a New Copper Disruption. Copper prices could be up for another supply disruption-driven price spike after widespread flooding caused the collapse of a bridge linking the Democratic Republic of Congo to Zambia, the main export conduit for its 3.5 mtpa exports.

Saudi Aramco Reinvents the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia’s state oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has alerted its buyers that from now on, for an undefined period, it would only load crude oil tankers from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, sending oil to the west through its 5 million b/d East-West pipeline.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

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Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!

Okay, here’s a summary of the Seeking Alpha Quant screen results, followed by a German translation:

Summary (450 words max)

Seeking Alpha’s “Quant” system, used to assess stock performance, has revealed a significant ranking disparity across sectors. Information Technology stocks dominated the top rankings, showcasing the highest average quant ratings, while Health Care companies consistently received the lowest ratings. This highlights a potential divergence between market sentiment and quantitative analysis.

The highest-rated stock, according to this screen, is Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUY), a Materials company, with a robust quant rating of 4.98. Conversely, Evolus, Inc. (EOLS), representing the Health Care sector, holds the lowest rating at 1.14, demonstrating a markedly bearish assessment.

This screen utilizes key quantitative measures – valuation, growth, stock momentum, and profitability – to generate ratings on a scale of 1 to 5. A rating above 3.5 indicates a bullish perspective, while a score below 2.5 represents a bearish outlook. The list contains 30 stocks across various sectors, offering a snapshot of investment opportunities based on algorithmic analysis.

Several Technology stocks scored strongly, including Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (TKC) at 4.86, Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) at 4.85, and MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) at 4.84. These companies appear to be generating favorable signals based on the Quant system's metrics.

Notably, several companies received lower ratings (1.14 - 1.33) largely within the Health Care sector, such as Evolus, Inc., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima. These lower ratings suggest potential concerns regarding valuation, growth, or profitability within these specific areas.

The Seeking Alpha analysis emphasizes that these ratings are based on a defined set of quantitative criteria. Investors should consider these ratings alongside fundamental analysis and broader market conditions when making investment decisions. The article also highlights several upcoming earnings reports that may impact market sentiment.

German Translation (max 450 words)

Zusammenfassung der Seeking Alpha Quant-Screen Ergebnisse

Das “Quant”-System von Seeking Alpha, das zur Bewertung von Aktien eingesetzt wird, hat eine deutliche Rangfolgeunterschied zwischen den Sektoren aufgedeckt. Informations-Technologie-Aktien dominierten die Top-Rankings mit den höchsten durchschnittlichen Quant-Bewertungen, während Unternehmen im Gesundheitssektor konstant niedrigere Bewertungen erhielten. Dies spiegelt möglicherweise eine Diskrepanz zwischen Marktsentiment und quantitativer Analyse wider.

Die am besten bewertete Aktie, laut diesem Screen, ist Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUY), ein Unternehmen im Rohstoffsektor, mit einer robusten Quant-Bewertung von 4,98. Im Gegensatz dazu hält Evolus, Inc. (EOLS), das den Gesundheitssektor vertritt, die niedrigste Bewertung von 1,14, was eine deutlich pessimistische Einschätzung zeigt.

Dieser Screen verwendet wichtige quantitative Kennzahlen – Bewertung, Wachstum, Aktienmomentum und Rentabilität – um Bewertungen auf einer Skala von 1 bis 5 zu generieren. Eine Bewertung über 3,5 deutet auf eine bullische Perspektive hin, während ein Wert unter 2,5 eine bärische Sichtweise darstellt. Die Liste enthält 30 Aktien aus verschiedenen Sektoren und bietet einen Überblick über Anlagechancen auf der Grundlage algorithmischer Analyse.

Mehrere Technologieaktien erzielten starke Bewertungen, darunter Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (TKC) mit 4,86, Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) mit 4,85 und MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) mit 4,84. Diese Unternehmen erzeugen nach der Quant-Systems-Metrik günstige Signale.

Besonders niedrig bewertet wurden mehrere Unternehmen (1,14 - 1,33) hauptsächlich im Gesundheitssektor, wie Evolus, Inc., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. und Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima. Diese niedrigen Bewertungen deuten auf potenzielle Bedenken hinsichtlich der Bewertung, des Wachstums oder der Rentabilität in diesen spezifischen Bereichen hin.

Die Analyse von Seeking Alpha betont, dass diese Bewertungen auf einem definierten Satz quantitativer Kriterien basieren. Investoren sollten diese Bewertungen zusammen mit fundamentaler Analyse und breiteren Marktbedingungen bei ihren Anlageentscheidungen berücksichtigen. Der Artikel hebt auch mehrere bevorstehende Gewinnberichte hervor, die die Marktsentiment beeinflussen könnten.

Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!

Okay, here’s a summary of the text, followed by a German translation, staying within the 500-word limit:

Summary (approx. 450 words)

TotalEnergies SE (TTE) is preparing to release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 11th. The company experienced a negative earnings surprise of 2.21% in the previous quarter, prompting a closer look at the factors influencing this outcome.

Several key elements are expected to have positively impacted TTE’s Q4 performance. Firstly, strong hydrocarbon production continued, bolstered by the restart of the Ichthys LNG project in Australia – a significant tailwind. Furthermore, contributions from startup projects and internal organic growth initiatives were anticipated to have driven revenue. The company’s strategic focus on divesting non-core assets is also expected to have created a positive impact on earnings, with further asset sales likely during the quarter. Simultaneously, TotalEnergies’ strategic acquisitions are anticipated to have added to the bottom line.

Refinery utilization rates are projected to remain stable, around 80-84%, due to planned turnarounds at Antwerp and SATORP in Saudi Arabia. A key driver of growth is TotalEnergies’ expansion into clean energy and increasing investment in renewable sources, aligning with a transition towards sustainable solutions. This shift, coupled with strong demand from sectors like data centers, electric vehicle rollouts, decarbonization efforts, and digitalization, should further support earnings growth. Adding to this, the ongoing share buyback program, authorized up to $1.5 billion for the quarter, is expected to contribute positively.

However, TTE faces considerable challenges. Its global operations expose it to intense competition from both national and international energy firms. Looking ahead, TotalEnergies anticipates a 4% year-over-year increase in hydrocarbon production volumes, largely due to the Ichthys LNG restart. Consensus estimates currently forecast earnings of $1.8 per share and revenues of $36.69 billion, representing a 5.26% and 22.12% decline respectively compared to the previous year.

Currently, TotalEnergies has an Earnings ESP of -2.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The model favors stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 for potential earnings beats. Investors should consider Sunrun (RUN), Cameco (CCJ), and South Bow Corporation (SOBO) – all with favorable Earnings ESPs and Zacks Ranks – as potential alternatives. These companies provide a more optimistic outlook for earnings surprises.

German Translation (approx. 500 words)

Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse von TotalEnergies SE (TTE) – Quartalsbericht Q4 2025

TotalEnergies SE (TTE) bereitet sich darauf vor, am 11. Februar 2025 seine Ergebnisse für das vierte Quartal 2025 zu veröffentlichen. Das Unternehmen verzeichnete im letzten Quartal einen negativen Gewinnüberraschung von 2,21 %. Eine detaillierte Analyse der Faktoren, die zu diesem Ergebnis beigetragen haben, ist daher erforderlich.

Mehrere wichtige Faktoren werden voraussichtlich einen positiven Einfluss auf die Q4-Ergebnisse von TTE haben. Erstens ist die Produktion von Rohöl und Erdgas weiterhin stark, gestützt durch den Wiederbetrieb des Ichthys LNG-Projekts in Australien – ein signifikanter positiver Faktor. Darüber hinaus wird die Beteiligung an neuen Projekten und interne organische Wachstumsinitiativen voraussichtlich zu höheren Umsätzen beitragen. Die strategische Fokussierung des Unternehmens auf den Verkauf nicht-strategischer Vermögenswerte wird ebenfalls zu einer Verbesserung der Erträge führen, wobei weitere Verkäufe im Laufe des Quartals erwartet werden. Gleichzeitig werden die strategischen Übernahmen von TotalEnergies die Gewinnmarge erhöhen.

Die Nutzung der Raffinerien soll bei 80-84 % verbleiben, was auf geplante Wartungsarbeiten in Antwerp und SATORP in Saudi-Arabien zurückzuführen ist. Ein wichtiger Wachstumstreiber ist die Expansion von TotalEnergies in den Bereichen saubere Energie und die zunehmende Investition in erneuerbare Energien, was mit dem Übergang zu nachhaltigen Lösungen übereinstimmt. Dieser Wandel, verbunden mit der starken Nachfrage aus Sektoren wie Rechenzentren, der Einführung von Elektrofahrzeugen, Dekarbonisierungsbemühungen und Digitalisierung, wird das Wachstum der Erträge weiter unterstützen. Zusätzlich wird das laufende Aktienrückkaufprogramm, mit einer Autorisierung von bis zu 1,5 Milliarden Dollar für das Quartal, einen positiven Einfluss haben.

Es bestehen jedoch erhebliche Herausforderungen. Die globalen Betriebe von TTE machen es dem Unternehmen der Konkurrenz durch nationale und internationale Energieunternehmen aus. Mit Blick auf die Zukunft erwartet TotalEnergies einen Anstieg der Rohöl- und Erdgasproduktion um 4 % im Vergleich zum Vorjahr, hauptsächlich aufgrund des Wiederbetriebs des Ichthys LNG-Projekts. Die Konsensschätzung sieht Gewinn von 1,80 Dollar pro Aktie und Umsatzzahlen von 36,69 Milliarden Dollar, was einem Rückgang von 5,26 % und 22,12 % im Vergleich zum Vorjahr entspricht.

Derzeit hat TotalEnergies einen Earnings ESP von -2,41 % und einen Zacks Rank von 3. Das Modell bevorzugt Aktien mit einem positiven Earnings ESP und einem Zacks Rank von 1, 2 oder 3 für potenzielle Gewinnüberraschungen. Investoren sollten Sunrun (RUN), Cameco (CCJ) und South Bow Corporation (SOBO) – alle mit günstigen Earnings ESPs und Zacks Ranks – als potenzielle Alternativen in Betracht ziehen. Diese Unternehmen bieten eine optimistischere Aussicht auf Gewinnüberraschungen.