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Hat Campbells (CPB) der günstigste Komfortlebensmittel auf dem Regal? Comfort Food hat einen Moment. Campbells-Aktien nicht. Amerikaner kochen immer noch zu Hause, was die Soße- und Saucenabteilung begünstigen sollte. Doch Aktien sitzen am unteren Ende der verpackten Lebensmittelgruppe. Die dritte Quartalszahlen gaben den Bären genug zum Nachdenken. Organische Verkaufszahlen fielen um 4%, angepasste EBIT sank um 24% und angepasste EPS fiel auf $0,50, was 32% weniger als ein Jahr zuvor ist.

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Die Anlegerberatung Bernstein hat sich vorsichtiger zu den US-Paketen-Food-Sektor geäußert. Sie hat mehrere Branchenriesen heruntergestuft, da sie warnte, dass strukturelle Hürden wie die zunehmende Einnahme von GLP-1-Medikamenten, regulatorische Überwachung und sich ändernde Verbraucherpräferenzen das Wachstum und die Rentabilität für Jahre beeinträchtigen werden. Der Analyst Alexia Howard hat Conagra Brands, Campbell's, General Mills und Kraft Heinz auf "Underperform" heruntergestuft, während sie Simply Good Foods auf "Market-Perform" gesetzt hat. Die Firma sagte, der Sektor stehe vor einer schwierigen Kombination aus sinkender Nachfrage, Margendruck und sich änderndem Verbraucherverhalten. Ein Hauptanliegen ist die beschleunigte Einnahme von GLP-1-Arzneimitteln zur Gewichtsabnahme. Bernstein schätzt, dass 14 bis 15 % der US-Erwachsenen nun diese Medikamente einnehmen, was stark gestiegen ist gegenüber 5,8 % im Frühjahr 2024, mit einer weiteren Zunahme nach dem Start von oralen Versionen und geplantem Medicare-Deckung für Senioren. Die Firma glaubt, dass die Verwendung von GLP-1-Medikamenten dazu beiträgt, dass der Konsum von kohlenhydrat-reichen, zuckerhaltigen und salzigen Lebensmitteln sinkt, während der Bedarf an proteinreichen Produkten steigt. Die Brokerage hat auch die wachsende Auswirkung des 'Make America Healthy Again'-Bewegungen und strengerer Lebensmittelvorschriften hervorgehoben. Bundes- und Landespolitiker zielen auf künstliche Farbstoffe, Zusatzstoffe und ultra-verarbeitete Lebensmittel ab, während größere Händler wie Walmart und Target ihre Lieferanten auffordern, Produkte zu reformulieren und bestimmte Inhaltsstoffe zu entfernen. Der Verbraucherbedarf bleibt ein weiteres Problem. Bernstein hat festgestellt, dass die US-Verbrauchersentiment auf einen 50-jährigen Tiefpunkt gefallen ist, was dazu führte, dass Verbraucher nach günstigeren Mahlzeiten suchen oder mehr Mahlzeiten selbst zubereiten. Die Firma warnte auch vor steigenden rechtlichen Risiken für Lebensmittelhersteller aufgrund eines von der Stadtanwalt von San Francisco eingeleiteten Rechtsstreits gegen größte Paket-Food- und Getränkeunternehmen wegen angeblicher Täuschungsmarketingpraktiken in Bezug auf ungesunde Produkte. Bernstein sagte, dass der Fall beachtet werden sollte, da Parallelen zu früheren Tabakrechtsstreiten bestehen. Unternehmensspezifische Bedenken variierten. Bernstein sagte, Conagra könnte sich letztendlich gezwungen sehen, seinen Dividendenanteil zu senken, wenn die Verschuldung steigt und die Rentabilität schwächt. Campbell's kämpft mit Wettbewerbsdruck in Snacks und Suppen sowie höheren Verpackungs-, Fracht- und Proteinkosten. General Mills' Bemühungen, Volumina durch Preisreduktionen zu erneuern, haben nicht nachhaltige Ergebnisse gebracht, während seine Exposition auf Getreide und andere kohlenhydrat-reiche Kategorien es anfällig für gesundheitsorientierte Verbraucherpräferenzen macht. Für Kraft Heinz fragte Bernstein, ob eine neue Strategie, bei der etwa 600 Millionen Dollar in Marketing, Preisgestaltung und Produktinnovation investiert werden, wachstumsfähig sein kann, ohne zusätzlichen Druck auf Margen und Verschuldung auszuüben. In der Zwischenzeit steht Simply Good Foods vor anhaltender Schwäche bei seiner Atkins-Marke sowie steigenden Milchproteinfreit- und Frachtkosten, die sich negativ auf die Ergebnisse des Geschäftsjahres 2027 auswirken könnten.

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Die wichtigsten Forschungsanfragen der Wall-Street-Analysten sind jetzt in einem einzigen Artikel zusammengefasst. Hier sind die heutigen Forschungsanfragen, die Investoren wissen müssen, wie sie von The Fly zusammengestellt wurden.

Top 5 Aufwertungen: Morgan Stanley hat Yum! Brands (YUM) auf "Überwachung" von "Gleichgewicht" mit einem Preisziel von 185 $ erhöht. Die Aktien, die im Laufe des Jahres nicht gestiegen sind, geben dem Unternehmen nicht das volle Vertrauen für seine verbesserte Wachstumschancen zukünftig, sagt der Firmenchef in einer Forschungsanfrage. Jefferies hat Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) auf "Kaufen" von "Haltbarkeit" mit einem Preisziel von 30 $ erhöht. Die Firma glaubt, dass neue Management gut positioniert ist, um eine verbesserte operative Stabilität, Einnahmen und einen "notwendigen Schub für unterperformende Vermögenswerte" zu bringen. RBC Capital hat Aveanna (AVAH) auf "Überwachung" von "Sektorleistung" mit einem unveränderten Preisziel von 10 $ erhöht. Die Firma zitiert die "solide Ausführung" der bevorzugten Zahlungsbeziehungen für die Aufwertung. RBC Capital hat SSR Mining (SSRM) auf "Überwachung" von "Sektorleistung" mit einem Preisziel von 40 $ erhöht. Das Unternehmen hat sein Portfolio in Kanada und USA konzentriert, was einen höheren Bewertungspremium verdient, sagt der Firmenchef. Citizens hat Rezolute (RZLT) auf "Überwachung" von "Marktpreis" mit einem Preisziel von 11 $ erhöht. Die Zwischenphasenergebnisse für Ersodetug in Tumorhyperinsulinismus steigern die Zuversicht, dass der Genehmigungsweg vom kongenitalen Hyperinsulinismus-Anzeichen unterschiedlich sein kann.

Top 5 Herabstufungen: Morgan Stanley hat Chipotle (CMG) auf "Gleichgewicht" von "Überwachung" mit einem Preisziel von 37 $ herabgestuft. Die Firma glaubt nicht, dass die Geschichte von Chipotle schnell wechselt. HSBC hat Thermo Fisher (TMO) auf "Haltbarkeit" von "Kaufen" mit einem Preisziel von 540 $ herabgestuft. Die Firma denkt, dass die Geschichte von Thermo, wieder zu 7% Wachstum über 2027 hinaus zu gelangen, mehr Unterstützung benötigt und zitiert das Fehlen von kurzfristiger organischen Wachstumsimpuls für die Herabstufung. Jefferies hat Leidos (LDOS) auf "Haltbarkeit" von "Kaufen" mit einem Preisziel von 140 $ herabgestuft. Die Firma hatte sich geirrt, dass Leidos überorganisches Wachstum durch Verteidigungstechnologie ausgelöst werden könnte. Bernstein hat Campbell's (CPB), Conagra Brands (CAG), General Mills (GIS) und Kraft Heinz (KHC) auf "Unterperformer" von "Marktpreis" herabgestuft. Diese traditionellen verpackten Lebensmittelunternehmen sind stärker an "sustained" Ölpreisinflation ausgesetzt und sehen sich auch mit Vorteilen für Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, gesundheitlichen Trends durch GLP-1-Medikamente und dem "Make America Healthy Again"-Agenda sowie rechtlichen Risiken konfrontiert. Oppenheimer hat AT&T (T) auf "Überwachung" von "Überwachung" herabgestuft. Die Firma denkt, dass langfristiges Breitband-Abonnentenwachstum und schließlich Mobilfunk durch Satelliten-LEO-Konstellationen gefährdet ist.

Top 5 Initiation: Bernstein hat Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) mit einem "Marktpreis"-Rating und einem Preisziel von 18 $ begonnen. Die Firma hat eine "struktural-bullische Sicht" auf die Kreuzfahrtindustrie, da sie einen breiteren Nachfragebasis auspaziert, die durch konstrierte Lieferungen und Produktinnovationen gesteigert wird. Bernstein hat auch Viking Holdings (VIK) mit einem "Überwachung"-Rating und einem Preisziel von 120 $ begonnen. Canaccord hat BridgeBio (BBIO) mit einem "Kaufen"-Rating und einem Preisziel von 104 $ begonnen. Die Firma zitiert die fortgesetzte Startfortschritte von Attruby und seine drei anderen seltenen Krankheiten, die in den nächsten 12-18 Monaten kommen werden. Raymond James hat FedEx Freight (FDXF) mit einem "Überwachung"-Rating und einem Preisziel von 180 $ begonnen. FedEx Freight erscheint gut positioniert, um von verbesserten Bedingungen der LKW-Branche zu profitieren, mit erhöhten Serviceleistungen, Preisen und Volumenwachstum, die über das mittelfristige Ziel des Managements hinausgehen werden. Piper Sandler hat Agilysys (AGYS) mit einem "Überwachung"-Rating und einem Preisziel von 110 $ begonnen. Die Firma sieht einen Aufschwung der Abonnementeinnahmen, die zu "struktural höheren" Margen und Rentabilität für das Unternehmen führen werden. KeyBanc hat DigitalOcean (DOCN) mit einem "Überwachung"-Rating und einem Preisziel von 200 $ begonnen. Das Unternehmen verwendet seine Investitionen aus dem Jahr 2026, um die Wachstumsfortschritte in der Wolke zu finanzieren, die im Jahr 2027 online kommen werden.

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Hier sind drei Aktien, die heute zur Zacks-Rangliste #5 (starker Verkaufsempfehlung) hinzugefügt wurden:

Avanos Medical, Inc. AVNS ist ein Unternehmen der medizinischen Technologie, das sich auf die Lieferung von Lösungen für medizinische Geräte spezialisiert hat. Die Zacks-Konsensschätzung für seine Einnahmen im nächsten Jahr wurde um 25% nach unten korrigiert über die letzten 60 Tage.

Baker Hughes Company BKR bietet Öl- und Gasdienstleistungen, industrielle Energietechnologien und Klimalösungen weltweit an. Die Zacks-Konsensschätzung für seine Einnahmen im laufenden Jahr wurde um 10,8% nach unten korrigiert über die letzten 60 Tage.

Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG ist ein Unternehmen der verpackten Lebensmittel. Die Zacks-Konsensschätzung für seine Einnahmen im laufenden Jahr wurde um 1,7% nach unten korrigiert über die letzten 60 Tage.

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Zusammenfassung (ca. 500 Wörter)

Conagra Brands (CAG) erlebte letzten Monat einen deutlichen Aktienrückgang von über 18 %, hauptsächlich aufgrund einer Herabstufung durch Wells Fargo-Analyst Chris Carey. Diese Herabstufung war Teil eines umfassenderen “Paket”-Herabstufung, das auch andere große Lebensmittelunternehmen wie Campbell Soup und General Mills betraf, hatte aber dennoch den Aktienkurs von Conagra negativ beeinflusst.

Die Herabstufung resultierte aus einer Kombination von Faktoren, die die Lebensmittelindustrie betreffen. Konsumtrends sind schwach, der Konsum wird durch Inflation eingeschränkt, und Unternehmen stehen vor engen Betriebsbudgets. Carey wies insbesondere auf die hohen Verschuldungsebenen von Conagra und die erheblichen Dividendenzahlungen – derzeit mit einem Ertrag von 8,9 % – hin, die als potenzielle Schwachstellen angesehen wurden. Der Schwerpunkt des Unternehmens auf verpackten Gütern wie gefrorenen Gemüse (Birds Eye), Würstchen (Hebrew National) und Kochspray (Pam) erscheint angesichts der sich ändernden Konsumentenpräferenzen für frische, hochwertigere Lebensmittel zunehmend veraltet.

Andere Analysten gaben unterschiedliche Einschätzungen ab. Peter Grom von UBS behielt eine neutrale Empfehlung und eine Kursziel von 20 USD bei, räumte jedoch ein, dass die aktuellen Marktbedingungen ungünstig sind. Er hob die Herausforderungen für etablierte Lebensmittelunternehmen hervor, die sich an einen modernen Markt mit Schwerpunkt auf gesünderen, frischeren Optionen anpassen müssen.

Ein wichtiger Faktor, der Besorgnis bei den Anlegern schürt, ist die hohe Ertragsdividende von Conagra. Obwohl sie für einige Anleger attraktiv ist, belastet diese Auszahlung die Finanzen des Unternehmens und erhöht das Risiko einer zukünftigen Reduzierung.

Der Motley Fool, in einem verwandten Artikel, rät von Investitionen in Conagra-Aktien ab, argumentiert, dass das Unternehmen eine Marken-Neuerstellung und eine strategische Verschiebung zu wünschenswerteren Lebensmittelkategorien benötigt. Sie betonen, dass der Aktienkurs trotz des Rückgangs durch den Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor historisch gesehen besser abgeschnitten hat als der S&P 500 und somit ein erhebliches Renditepotenzial aufweist. Der Artikel betont die Bedeutung einer gründlichen Recherche vor einer Investition und verweist dabei auf vergangene Erfolge mit Empfehlungen für Netflix und Nvidia.

Letztendlich trugen die Marktwindhiebel, die finanzielle Situation von Conagra und die sich ändernden Konsumentenpräferenzen zu dem starken Rückgang des Aktienkurses bei.

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The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.97%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.86%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.45%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.96%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +1.47%.

Stock indexes are extending Tuesday’s sharp rally today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 2-week high on mounting optimism that the war in the Middle East is nearing a conclusion.   President Trump said he foresaw the US ending the war with Iran within two to three weeks. Mr. Trump said Iran has asked for a ceasefire, which he will consider when the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and clear.”  Meanwhile, the US and Israeli forces kept up their bombardment of Iran, while Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE all reported attacks by Iran, with Qatar saying a fuel oil tanker was struck in Qatari waters.

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Stocks remained higher today on better-than-expected US economic news on Mar ADP employment, Feb retail sales, and Mar ISM manufacturing activity.

US MBA mortgage applications fell -10.4% in the week ended March 27, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -2.6% and the refinancing sub-index down -17.3%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +14 bp to a 7-month high of 6.57% from 6.43% in the prior week.

The US Mar ADP employment change rose by +62,000, stronger than expectations of +40,000.

US Feb retail sales rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m, and Feb retail sales ex-autos rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

The US Mar ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rose +0.3 to 52.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 52.3 and the strongest pace of expansion in 3.5 years.  The Mar ISM prices paid sub-index rose +7.8 to a 3.75-year high of 78.3, stronger than expectations of 74.0.

Hawkish comments today from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem were bearish for stocks, as he said risks are rising to both inflation and employment and added, "I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time."

Story Continues

President Trump will give a televised address to the country at 9 pm Eastern time tonight to provide an “important update” on Iran.  He said Iran could still reach a deal with the US, but that an agreement with Iran isn’t a prerequisite for ending the war.

Crude oil prices (CLK26) are down more than -2% today on hopes for an end to the Iran war and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  The Wall Street Journal reported today that the UAE is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force and is lobbying for a United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing such action.

The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 2-week high and is up +2.60%.  China's Shanghai Composite rose to a 1.5-week high and closed up +1.46%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up sharply by +5.24%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are up by +2 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.6 bp to 4.311%.  June T-notes climbed to a 1.5-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 4.257%.  T-notes are moving higher today as WTI crude oil is down more than -2%, easing inflation expectations.  Also, optimism that a resolution to the Iran war will lead to lower energy prices, allowing the Fed to cut interest rates, is supporting T-note prices.

However, T-notes gave up most of their gains on stronger-than-expected US ADP, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing reports.  Also, hawkish comments today from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem undercut T-note prices when he said, "I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time."

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield dropped to a 2-week low of 2.931% and is down -0.5 bp to 2.999%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 2-week low of 4.777% and is down -6.5 bp to 4.851%.

The Eurozone Mar S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.2 to 51.6 from the previously reported 51.4, the strongest pace of expansion in 3.75 years.

The Eurozone Feb unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 6.2%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 6.1%.

Swaps are discounting a 49% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today and lifting the overall market.  Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Intel (INTC) and Sandisk (SNDK) are up more than +9%.  Also, Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +8%, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is up more than 7%. In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +6%, and Applied Materials (AMAT) and ASML Holding NV (ASML) are up more than +4%. Finally, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up more than +3%.

Mining stocks are rallying today with gold and silver prices climbing to 2-week highs.  Newmont Corp (NEM) and Anglogold Ashanti (AU) are up more than +5%, and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and Coeur Mining (CDE) are up more than +4%.  Also, Southern Copper (SCCO), Hecla Mining (HL), and Barrick Mining (B) are up more than +3%.

Airline stocks are moving higher today, as crude oil prices are down by more than -2% in hopes that an end to the Iran war is near.  United Airlines Holdings (UAL) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) are up more than +4%.  Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) is up more than +3%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are up more than +2%.

Optoelectronic companies are rallying today.  Lumentum Holdings (LITE) is up more than +10%, and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is up more than +9%.  Also, Coherent (COHR) is up more than +7%, Corning (GLW) is up more than +5%, and Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is up more than +2%.

Energy producers and energy service providers are under pressure today with WTI crude oil down by more than -2%.  Exxon Mobil (XOM), Devon Energy (DVN), Chevron (CVX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are down more than -4%.  Also, Diamondback Energy (FANG), Phillips 66 (PSX), APA Corp (APA), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -3%.

Target Hospitality (TH) is up more than +37% after securing a multi-year contract worth over $550 million to construct and provide hospitality services for a data center development in Texas.

nCino (NCNO) is up more than +9% after forecasting 2027 subscription revenue of $569 million to $573 million, better than the consensus of $568.5 million.

Boeing (BA) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Wells Fargo Securities initiated coverage on the stock with an overweight rating and a price target of $250.

Oric Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) is down more than -27% after announcing an update on its rinzimetostat program that JPMorgan Chase said was too small a sample and a short follow-up that makes it unreasonable to expect clear efficacy differentiation at this stage.

RH (RH) is down more than -22% after forecasting 2027 revenue to be down -2% to -4%, much weaker than the consensus of an +8.1% increase.

Nike (NKE) is down more than -13% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after forecasting Q4 revenue to be down -2% to -4% and saying its turnaround efforts are taking longer than originally planned.

MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) is down more than -1% after reporting Q2 net sales of $917.8 million, weaker than the consensus of $931.5 million.

Earnings Reports(4/1/2026)

Conagra Brands Inc (CAG), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW), MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

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June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are trending up +0.51% this morning as oil prices fall and risk appetite improves on hopes for an imminent end to the conflict in the Middle East.

President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday that the U.S. plans to leave Iran within two to three weeks. Trump suggested that Iran could still strike a deal with the U.S. during that timeframe, but said an agreement with Tehran was not required for the war to conclude. On Tuesday night, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a post on X that Trump would address the nation on Wednesday evening “to provide an important update on Iran.”

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Stock Index Futures Rally on Prospect of End to Middle East Conflict, U.S. Economic Data and Fed Speak in Focus Ignore the Panic and Buy the Dip in Micron Stock, Says Bank of America Stocks Climb on Hopes for an End to Iran War Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines.

The price of WTI crude initially dropped more than -4% on Trump’s remarks, but later pared losses and was last down over -1% as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut and missile and drone attacks continued across the Gulf. Treasury yields fell across the curve as hopes for a swift end to the conflict eased concerns about elevated inflationary pressures fueled by higher-for-longer oil prices.

Investors are also awaiting a new round of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the ADP employment report and retail sales figures.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed sharply higher. The Magnificent Seven stocks rallied, with Meta Platforms (META) climbing over +6% and Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than +5%. Also, chip stocks surged, led by a more than +12% jump in Marvell Technology (MRVL) after Nvidia pledged to invest $2 billion in the company. In addition, airline stocks advanced amid a drop in oil prices, with United Airlines Holdings (UAL) surging over +8% and Alaska Air Group (ALK) gaining over +7%. On the bearish side, Constellation Energy (CEG) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the power provider gave soft FY26 adjusted EPS guidance and did not unveil any new data-center deals at a closely watched investor event.

A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to 6.882 million in February, slightly weaker than expectations of 6.890 million. Also, the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose to 91.8 in March, stronger than expectations of 87.8. In addition, the U.S. January S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. rose +1.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.4% y/y. Finally, the U.S. March Chicago PMI fell to 52.8, weaker than expectations of 54.8.

Story Continues

“There do appear to be some early signs of stabilization in both consumer confidence and job openings after a clear fourth-quarter downtrend,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “While that doesn’t yet signal a meaningful rebound, it may suggest the consumer and labor backdrop are no longer deteriorating at the same pace.”

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Tuesday warned that the central bank should not dismiss the inflationary impact of a spike in energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. “This oil shock comes at a time when inflation already has been too high for too long,” Schmid said. He noted that the Fed should be ready to address elevated inflation proactively so it does not become entrenched near 3% in the long run.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% probability of no rate change and a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.

Today, investors will focus on the U.S. ADP private payrolls report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 41K, compared to the February figure of 63K.

U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate that retail sales will climb +0.5% m/m and core retail sales will rise +0.3% m/m in February, compared to the previous figures of -0.2% m/m and unchanged m/m, respectively.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be reported today. Economists expect the March ISM manufacturing index to be 52.3 and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI to be 52.3, compared to the previous month’s values of 52.4 and 51.6, respectively.

The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 2.0 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 6.9 million barrels.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed Governor Michael Barr and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

On the earnings front, notable companies such as Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), and Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) are scheduled to report their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.28%, down -0.83%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +2.04% this morning, starting April on an upbeat note after President Trump offered investors hope that the Middle East conflict could soon come to an end. Bank, travel, and technology stocks jumped on Wednesday. Energy was the only sector to fall amid a slide in oil prices. A survey released on Wednesday showed that Eurozone manufacturing growth accelerated to its strongest pace in nearly four years in March as supply chain disruptions inflated the headline figure, although underlying demand remained subdued and surging input costs stemming from the Middle East conflict threatened to derail the sector’s fragile recovery. Separately, data showed that the Eurozone’s unemployment rate ticked up in February. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields sank on Wednesday, following U.S. and Japanese peers as concerns about elevated energy prices fueling inflation and rate hikes eased. In other news, Germany’s leading economic research institutes more than halved their growth forecasts for this year and next and sharply raised their inflation projections as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts energy markets. In corporate news, Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO.LN) tumbled over -12% after saying it would postpone its FY25 results as it works to secure alternative banking arrangements.

Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate were released today.

Eurozone’s March Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6, stronger than expectations of 51.4.

Eurozone’s February Unemployment Rate was 6.2%, weaker than expectations of 6.1%.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +1.46%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +5.24%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as hopes for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict boosted sentiment. U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. could end its military strikes on Iran within two to three weeks, and that Tehran would not need to reach a deal as a precondition for the conflict to wind down. Biotechnology, chip, and tourism stocks surged on Wednesday. A private-sector survey released on Wednesday showed that China’s manufacturing activity cooled from a five-year high in March, although it remained in expansion territory. Sub-indexes tracking demand and output expanded at a slower pace in March than a month earlier, while cost pressures intensified sharply, according to RatingDog. The RatingDog reading contrasted with an official gauge released on Tuesday. Separately, a private survey showed that China’s new home prices ticked up in March, reversing the prior month’s decline, supported by a seasonal rebound in demand across major cities. Meanwhile, China’s listed firms announced the highest number of share buybacks in nearly a year last month as the escalating Middle East conflict pressured stock prices. A total of 43 Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies pledged in March to buy back a combined 25.6 billion yuan ($3.7 billion) worth of shares, according to Bloomberg. In corporate news, Zhipu AI soared over +31% in Hong Kong after the company said its 2025 revenue more than doubled.

The Chinese March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.8, weaker than expectations of 51.6.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today amid optimism that the Middle East conflict could be nearing a conclusion. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he expected the U.S. to end the war with Iran within two to three weeks. Strong results from Japan’s Tankan business survey also lifted sentiment. Gains were broad-based on Wednesday, with financial, industrial, and chip stocks leading the rally. The benchmark index notched its largest daily percentage gain since April 2025. The Bank of Japan’s closely watched Tankan survey, released on Wednesday, showed that sentiment among large manufacturers improved in the first quarter, reaching its highest level since December 2021. The business sentiment index picked up for a fourth consecutive quarter, even as the Middle East conflict broke out. A BOJ official said at a briefing that strong demand for AI chips and easing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy offset the pressure from higher input costs and the Middle East conflict. However, the Tankan showed that companies expect overall prices to rise 2.6% over the coming year, well above the central bank’s 2% target and faster than the 2.4% pace projected in the previous survey. Private-sector data reinforced these inflationary concerns. A separate survey showed on Wednesday that Japan’s manufacturing sector continued to grow in March, but at a slower pace, partly as cost pressures hit a 19-month high amid the Middle East conflict. Economists said Japan’s Tankan survey could strengthen the case for the BOJ to hike rates this month. In corporate news, Recruit Holdings surged over +9% after the company announced plans to repurchase up to 350 billion yen worth of shares. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -45.04% to 26.43.

The Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index stood at 17 in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of 16.

The Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index came in at 36 in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of 33.

The Japanese March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 51.6 from the preliminary reading of 51.4.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip and AI-infrastructure stocks extended their rebound in pre-market trading, with Sandisk (SNDK) rising over +3% and Micron Technology (MU) gaining nearly +2%.

Microsoft (MSFT) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after announcing plans to invest $5.5 billion in cloud and AI infrastructure in Singapore from 2025 through the end of 2029.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) advanced more than +1% in pre-market trading after Raymond James upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a $115 price target.

Nike (NKE) tumbled over -10% in pre-market trading after the sportswear giant said revenue is projected to fall 2% to 4% in the current quarter and decline in the low single digits for the remainder of the calendar year.

RH (RH) plummeted more than -18% in pre-market trading after the home-furnishings company posted downbeat Q4 results and issued below-consensus FY26 revenue guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - April 1st

Conagra Brands (CAG), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), MSC Industrial Direct Co. (MSM), UniFirst (UNF), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), NovaGold Resources (NG), Penguin Solutions (PENG), Tilray Brands (TLRY), Terra Innovatum Global (NKLR), Syntec Optics Holdings (OPTX), Franklin Covey Co. (FC), Bassett Furniture Industries (BSET).

On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

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Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed up +2.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +2.49%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +3.43%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +2.88%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +3.42%.

Stock indexes rallied sharply on Tuesday in hopes that an end to the Iran war is near.  The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that President Trump signaled he was willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.  The report said Mr. Trump believes the US should wind down hostilities while pressuring Iran diplomatically to reopen the Strait.  If that fails, the US will press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the waterway.  US and Israeli forces pressed ahead with attacks on Iran on Tuesday, while Iran hit a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai in a drone attack, and the UAE reported a drone attack.

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Stocks Climb on Hopes for an End to Iran War Stock Index Futures Rally on Prospect of End to Middle East Conflict, U.S. Economic Data and Fed Speak in Focus Meta Platforms Just Made Entergy a Top Stock to Buy... and It Pays a 2.49% Dividend Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now!

Stocks added to their gains, and crude oil prices tumbled Tuesday afternoon after Iran signaled openness to resolving the war.  Iranian President Masoud Pezeskhian said his country had the "necessary will to end this war," provided that hostilities end on all fronts and that Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is recognized.

Falling bond yields are also supportive of stocks, as the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 1-week low of 4.28% on Tuesday.  Bond yields declined amid hopes that an end to the Iran war will lower energy prices, easing inflation concerns.  Stocks also found support on Tuesday after the US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose.

The US Jan S&P CaseShiller composite-20 home price index rose +1.18% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.38% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 2.5 years.

The US Mar MNI Chicago PMI fell -4.9 to 52.8, weaker than expectations of 55.0.

The Conference Board US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 91.8, stronger than expectations of a decline to 87.9.

US Feb JOLTS job openings fell -358,000 to 6.882 million, weaker than expectations of 6.890 million.

Hawkish comments on Tuesday from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid were negative for stocks, as he said he's "more focused on the risks to inflation at this time" and that he's concerned inflation will get stuck closer to 3% as the recent surge in energy prices will likely feed through to core inflation.

Story Continues

Signs of strength in China’s economy are supportive for global growth prospects and stocks.  The China March manufacturing PMI rose +1.4 to 50.4, better than expectations of 50.1 and the strongest pace of expansion in a year.  Also, the China March non-manufacturing PMI rose by +0.6 to 50.1, better than expectations of 49.9.

Crude oil prices (CLK26) fell from a 3-week high on Tuesday but remain supported despite President Trump signaling he is willing to end the war with Iran, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.  The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region.  Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway.  Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.

The International Energy Agency said last Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends.

The markets are discounting a 3% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Tuesday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.50%.  China's Shanghai Composite fell from a 1-week high and closed down -0.80%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-month low and closed down -1.58%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Tuesday closed up by +7.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield fell -4.1 bp to 4.307%.  June T-notes rose to a 1-week high on Tuesday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 4.283%.  T-notes moved higher on Tuesday in hopes that an end to the Iran war will lower energy prices and ease inflation concerns.  T-notes fell from their best level after the US Mar consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose and after Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said he's "more focused on the risks to inflation at this time."

European government bond yields moved lower on Tuesday.  The 10-year German bund yield fell -3.1 bp to 3.004%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -1.9 bp to 4.916%.

Eurozone Mar CPI rose +2.5% y/y, the most in 14 months, but below expectations of +2.6% y/y.  Mar core CPI rose +2.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.4% y/y.

German Feb retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.3% m/m increase.

ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said, "The ECB can't rule out changes in interest rates already in April if energy prices remain at a high level for a long time."

Swaps are discounting a 55% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are climbing today, helping lift the overall market.  Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +6%, and Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed up more than +5%.  Also, Tesla (TSLA) closed up more than +4%, and Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +3%.  In addition, Apple (AAPL) closed up more than +2%.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +12% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and chip stocks after Nvidia said it is investing $2 billion in the company.  Also, ON Semiconductor (ON) closed up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Sandisk (SNDK) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +10%.  In addition, Western Digital (WDC), Intel (INTC), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) closed up more than +7%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) and Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +6%.  Finally, Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +5%, and Micron Technology (MU), Analog Devices (ADI), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed up more than +4%.

Airline stocks surged on Tuesday as crude oil prices fell by more than -1% in hopes that an end to the Iran war is near.  United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed up more than +8%, and Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed up more than +7%.  Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up more than +5%, and Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed up more than +3%.

Home builders and building suppliers moved higher on Tuesday after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low, which lowers mortgage rates and supports housing demand. Builders Firstsource (BLDR) and Toll Brothers (TOL) closed up more than +4%, and DR Horton (DHI) and Pulte Group (PHM) closed up more than +3%.  Also, Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) closed up more than +2%.

Energy producers and energy service providers moved lower on Tuesday after WTI crude oil fell from a 3-week high, dropping by more than 1%.  APA Corp (APA) and Devon Energy (DVN) closed down more than -2%, and Chevron (CVX) closed down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed down more than -1%.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) closed up more than +135% after being acquired by Biogen for $5.6 billion, or about $41 a share.  Biogen (BIIB) closed down more than -2% on the news.

Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA) closed up more than +44% after Eli Lilly agreed to buy the company for about $7.8 billion or $38 a share, plus a further $9 a share if three milestone targets are met.

Scholar Rock (SRRK) closed up by more than +14% after it resubmitted its Biologics License Application for apitegromab, a muscle-targeted therapy for spinal muscular atrophy.

Nebius Group NV (NBIS) closed up more than +12% after saying it plans to build a 310-megawatt server facility in Finland.

Caterpillar (CAT) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Barclays raised its price target on the stock to $700 from $625.

FactSet Research Systems (FDS) closed up more than +6% after reporting Q2 revenue of $611 million, better than the consensus of $604.9 million, and raising its full-year revenue forecast to $2.45 billion to $2.47 billion from a previous estimate of $2.42 billion to $2.45 billion, above the consensus of $2.45 billion.

Phreesia (PHR) is down more than -26% after cutting its 2027 revenue forecast to $510 million to $520 million from a previous forecast of $545 million to $559 million, well below the consensus of $550.9 million.

Constellation Energy (CEG) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after forecasting 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11 to $12.00, the midpoint below the consensus of $11.72.

McCormick & Co (MKC) closed down more than -6% after agreeing to acquire Unilever’s Food business for $15.7 billion in cash and $29.7 billion of stock.

Earnings Reports(4/1/2026)

Conagra Brands Inc (CAG), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW), MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

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Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!

Earnings from three major S&P 500 reports this week highlight a tug-of-war. Strong corporate profits are being tested by intensifying economic and geopolitical risks in the industrial and retail sectors.

A focused slate of results from Cintas (CTAS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CTAS]), Paychex (PAYX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PAYX]), and Carnival (CCL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CCL]) saw all three companies surpass analyst estimates on both EPS and revenue, delivering consistent year-over-year growth.

[Seeking Alpha] Seeking Alpha (Seeking Alpha)

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE COMPANIES THAT REPORTED EARNINGS THIS WEEK:

Cintas Corporation (CTAS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CTAS]) delivered a standout fiscal third-quarter report, beating analyst estimates and raising its full-year guidance. Fiscal third-quarter revenues of $2.84 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.82 billion and reflecting an 8.9% increase from the previous year. Organic revenue growth was 8.2%. Net income also rose to $502.5 million, or $1.24 per share, matching Wall Street's estimates. The company achieved record gross margins of 51.0%, attributed to robust demand for its uniform and facility services.

Paychex (PAYX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PAYX]) delivered a "double beat" [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4568449-paychex-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-updates-fy26-outlook] for its fiscal third quarter. The company reported non-GAAP EPS of $1.71, surpassing analyst estimates by $0.04, on revenue of $1.81 billion—a robust 19.9% year-over-year increase. While maintaining the core of its fiscal 2026 guidance, Paychex highlighted a strengthened cash position of $1.8 billion and slightly adjusted its outlook for interest on client funds to a range of $200 million to $210 million.

Carnival Corporation (CCL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CCL]) had a strong first quarter [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4569673-earnings-snapshot-carnival-tops-fq1-estimates-lowers-full-year-outlook-authorizes-new-25b-buyback-program], exceeding analyst expectations. They reported net sales of $6.17 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.20, both above estimates. The company achieved record net yields, increasing 2.7% in constant currency, and had nearly $8 billion in customer deposits. However, management lowered its FY2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $7.19 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $2.21, below consensus. The board approved a $2.5 billion share buyback program, showing long-term confidence.

EARNINGS NEXT WEEK

The upcoming earnings reports will cover several key industries, including financials and both segments of the consumer sector. Market participants are primarily focused on retail giant NIKE (NKE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NKE]) for insights into global discretionary spending, alongside food industry staples Conagra Brands (CAG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CAG]) and McCormick & Company (MKC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MKC]). Additionally, the week will provide key data from Lamb Weston Holdings (LW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LW]) and financial data provider FactSet Research Systems (FDS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FDS]).

S&P 500 ETFS: (SPY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY]), (VOO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VOO]), (IVV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IVV]), (RSP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RSP]), (SSO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SSO]), (UPRO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UPRO]), (SH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SH]), (SDS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SDS]), (SPXU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPXU]), (FXAIX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FXAIX]), (VFIAX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VFIAX]), (VFFSX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VFFSX]), and (SWPPX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SWPPX]).

MORE ON EARNINGS:

* Here are the major earnings before the open Friday [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4569162-here-are-the-major-earnings-before-the-open-friday#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Aearnings%7Csection_asset%3Anews_title]
*

Unity Software soars as it says preliminary Q1 guidance will top estimates [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4569624-unity-software-soars-as-it-says-prelim-q1-guidance-will-top-estimates#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Aearnings%7Csection_asset%3Anews_title]

*

Paychex in charts: FQ3 revenue rises 19.9% Y/Y; adjusted EBITDA up 21.6% [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4568323-paychex-in-charts-fq3-revenue-rises-199-yy-adjusted-ebitda-up-216#source=section%3Asummary%7Csection_asset%3Anews_news%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A2]

*

Cintas GAAP EPS of $1.24 in-line, revenue of $2.84B beats by $20M; raises FY26 outlook [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4568455-cintas-gaap-eps-of-124-in-line-revenue-of-284b-beats-by-20m-raises-fy26-outlook#source=section%3Asummary%7Csection_asset%3Anews_news%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A3]

*

Earnings Snapshot: Carnival tops FQ1 estimates; lowers full-year outlook, authorizes new $2.5B buyback program [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4569673-earnings-snapshot-carnival-tops-fq1-estimates-lowers-full-year-outlook-authorizes-new-25b-buyback-program#source=section%3Asummary%7Csection_asset%3Anews_news%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1]

Haftungsausschluss: Der Text wurde mit Hilfe einer KI zusammengefasst und übersetzt. Für Aussagen aus dem Originaltext wird keine Haftung übernommen!

Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG is likely to witness a top and bottom-line decline when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on April 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.77 billion, indicating a decrease of 2.6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 40 cents per share, suggesting a drop of 21.6% from the figure recorded in the year-ago quarter. CAG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.4%, on average.

Conagra Brands Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Conagra Brands price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Conagra Brands Quote

Factors Likely to Influence CAG’s Q3 Results

Conagra’s third-quarter results are likely to reflect continued pressure on both sales and earnings, as the company entered the period facing a still-cautious consumer backdrop. As per management, in the prior quarter, shoppers, especially lower and middle-income consumers, remained value-conscious, which is likely to have kept demand uneven across parts of the portfolio. The company also began the quarter after weather disruptions and SNAP-related timing issues affected prior-period trends, making the operating environment difficult.

Another factor that may have affected the quarter is the timing of retailer orders and promotions. On its last earnings call, Conagra said that some promotional activity, especially in frozen, moved from the second quarter into the third. This is likely to have supported shipments in certain areas, but results may be shaped more by timing than a clear improvement in demand. Our model suggests a volume dip of 0.6% for the third quarter.

On the profitability front, margins are expected to have remained under pressure from elevated input costs and continued investments in the business. Inflation across commodities and packaging has kept the cost structure high, while increased spending on advertising, promotions and merchandising to support volume growth is likely to have weighed on earnings. We expect the adjusted gross margin to contract 160 basis points in the quarter under review.

On the positive side, underlying trends in frozen and snacks appear to be improving, supported by innovation, better promotional activity and strong supply-chain execution, which may have provided some cushion. Our model indicates a 1.5% volume increase for the Refrigerated & Frozen segment for the quarter under consideration.

Earnings Whispers for CAG Stock

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Conagra Brands this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Conagra Brands currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Story Continues

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are a few companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Hormel Foods Corporation HRL currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.70% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The consensus estimate for Hormel Foods’ quarterly revenues is pinned at $2.95 billion, which calls for 1.6% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 35 cents, indicating flat year-over-year growth. HRL delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 0.4%, on average.

Tyson Foods, Inc. TSN currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for Tyson Foods’ quarterly revenues is pinned at $13.78 billion, which suggests 5.4% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at 81 cents, which implies a 12% decrease year over year. TSN delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of nearly 16.5%, on average.

Monster Beverage Corporation MNST currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus mark for the upcoming quarter’s revenues is pegged at $2.15 billion, which indicates an increase of 15.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly EPS of 53 cents implies an increase of 12.8% from 47 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. MNST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.8%, on average.

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Conagra Brands (CAG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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